Tuesday 1 June 2010


THE THREAT OF WAR IS FADING

Kang Chol-hwan

The Chosun Ilbo, June 2, 2010

A group of young students ask each other on the subway, "What are we going to do if war breaks out?" Fears among South Koreans of a war with North Korea have become more palpable these days, and such sentiments are understandable in the heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula. There are those who blame the government's hardline approach. "Things were different during the days of the Sunshine Policy," they say.

I grew up in North Korea, and based on that experience, I feel that the chances of war are actually smaller now than during the period of rapprochement. Isolated provocations by North Korea, such as the sinking of the Navy corvette Cheonan, may happen again. But the threat of an all-out war with North Korea has actually diminished. For a country to start a war, the balance of military power must be broken, allies have to support it, and the other side has to be caught off guard. Even if it has overwhelming military power, a country would be hesitant to wage war against another if the other side is well prepared.

(...) [artículo aquí]

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