Monday 30 May 2011

JAPAN POST-QUAKE ECONOMY

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JAPAN AUTO OUTPUT, EXPORTS PLUNGE POST-QUAKE

AFP, May 31, 2011

TOKYO — Japan's auto production and exports suffered record drops of more than 60 percent each in April following the March 11 earthquake and tsunami disaster, an industry group said Tuesday.

Total domestic production of cars, trucks and buses plunged 60.1 percent year-on-year in April, as the massive calamity led to plant closures and cut supply chains, said the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association.

Japan's exports of vehicles dropped 67.8 percent from a year earlier, the industry group said. Both the output and export drops were the biggest on record, a spokeswoman for the association told AFP.

Vehicle production in the country fell to 292,001 units in April from 731,829 in the same month a year earlier, while exports came to 126,061 units, down from 391,540 in April 2010, the industry group said.

Many component manufacturers that are key to auto production are based in the worst-hit regions of Japan, their facilities damaged by the 9.0-magnitude seabed quake or swamped by the giant wave that followed.

The quake and tsunami also crippled power generation facilities, including a nuclear power plant at the centre of an ongoing atomic emergency.

(...) [artículo aquí]

RADIATION FROM FUKUSHIMA

Bloomberg_logo

FUKUSHIMA RISKS CHERNOBYL ‘DEAD ZONE’

Yuriy Humber and Stuart Biggs

Bloomberg, May 30, 2011

Radioactive soil in pockets of areas near Japan’s crippled nuclear plant have reached the same level as Chernobyl, where a “dead zone” remains 25 years after the reactor in the former Soviet Union exploded.

Soil samples in areas outside the 20-kilometer (12 miles) exclusion zone around the Fukushima plant measured more than 1.48 million becquerels a square meter, the standard used for evacuating residents after the Chernobyl accident, Tomio Kawata, a fellow at the Nuclear Waste Management Organization of Japan, said in a research report published May 24 and given to the government.

Radiation from the plant has spread over 600 square kilometers (230 square miles), according to the report. The extent of contamination shows the government must move fast to avoid the same future for the area around Tokyo Electric Power Co.’s Fukushima Dai-Ichi plant as Chernobyl, scientists said. Technology has improved since the 1980s, meaning soil can be decontaminated with chemicals or by planting crops to absorb radioactive materials, allowing residents to return.

(...) [artículo aquí]

Sunday 29 May 2011

CHINA, US AND MARITIME SECURITY

The Diplomat

HOW CHINA, US SEE EACH OTHER AT SEA

Talks between the US and Chinese militaries can be great. But dialogue can also reduce trust over maritime differences as well boosting it.

Patrick Cronin

The Diplomat, May 29, 2011

Maritime security, especially in the East and South China Sea, remains high on the agenda of China, the United States, Japan and other regional actors.  Incidents over the past two years have strained relations and then prompted official and unofficial dialogues, including a two-day conference of experts hosted by the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences in association with the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy. The debate emanating from here in Shanghai at once showed the value of dialogue, but also its limitations.

While Chinese and US officials attempt to build on the fragile edifice of maritime cooperation advanced earlier in May through high-level military and civilian talks, they might do well to reflect on the distinction between conflicts of national interest and conflicts based on insufficient understanding. As they know, dialogue won’t necessarily improve the former, but it does help to alleviate the latter.

Indeed, Prof. Nan Li of the US Naval War College believes that dialogue can actually reduce trust when the differences are over national interests. This may be the case with respect to China explaining its active defence or anti-access and area denial strategy. For example, when someone as knowledgeable as retired Rear Adm. Yang Yi claims that it applies only to ‘Taiwan battlefield’ scenarios, US and foreign audiences are sceptical if not incredulous.

(...) [artículo aquí]

Saturday 28 May 2011

THE EU AND JAPAN

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EU, JAPAN EYE NEW FRIENDSHIP, WEIGH TRADE FRICTION

An EU-Japan summit Saturday seeking to elevate ties between the world's third biggest economy

AFP

AsiaOne, May 28, 2011

BRUSSELS - An EU-Japan summit Saturday seeking to elevate ties between the world's third biggest economy and its leading market to a new dimension, looks set to stumble on prickly differences over trade.

Disaster-struck Japan, struggling to recover from a devastating March tsunami and nuclear meltdown, had pressed the European Union hard for a formal summit announcement of the launch of negotiations towards a free trade deal - an accord worth tens of billions to either side.

But after months of tough talking heightened by a history of trade friction, officials said no such deal would be formally inked as the two sides scrambled to agree wording of a joint text only 24 hours before the summit start.

"This summit cannot launch negotiations but it can send a strong political message that we're seeking to launch negotiations," said an EU diplomat on condition of anonymity.

(...) [artículo aquí]

THE US AND THE YUAN

Bloomberg_logo

U.S. DOESN’T NAME CHINA A CURRENCY MANIPULATOR

Ian Katz

Bloomberg, May 27, 2011

The Obama administration declined to brand China a currency manipulator while saying the world’s fastest-growing economy is making “insufficient” progress on letting the yuan rise.

The U.S. “believes that progress thus far is insufficient and that more rapid progress is needed,” the Treasury Department said yesterday in a report to Congress on foreign- exchange markets. The yuan’s real exchange rate remains “substantially undervalued” and the department “will continue to closely monitor the pace” of appreciation.

The report, originally due in April, follows Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner’s push for a stronger yuan. Lawmakers including Senator Charles Schumer, a New York Democrat, say the exchange rate gives China an unfair advantage in the global marketplace. In talks this month between the world’s two largest economies, China agreed on the upward direction of the currency, while differing with the U.S. on the pace.

“We have differences on the degree of appreciation,” Deputy Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao said May 10 in Washington. China’s economy will expand 9.6 percent in 2011 and 9.5 percent next year, according to International Monetary Fund projections released last month.

The Treasury Department backed away from the “nuclear option” of calling China a currency manipulator, said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York. The Group of 20 nations are “going to have something to say on the global imbalances later this year, so it is better to decide these matters in a world forum rather than for the U.S. to take unilateral action.”

(...) [artículo aquí]

Friday 27 May 2011

US AND CENTRAL ASIA

Foreign Policy Journal

RECALIBRATING RELATIONS BETWEEN THE U.S. AND CENTRAL ASIA

Daniel Wagner and Luca Costa

Foreign Policy Journal, May 27, 2011

The deterioration of bilateral relations between Pakistan and the U.S. represents at once potential peril for the region and an opportunity for the U.S. and the Central Asian states. Although the U.S./Pakistan bilateral relationship has been in decline for some time—the result of a combination of conflicting military objectives, a lack of trust, and perceived Pakistani corruption—the dramatic recent disintegration opens the door for a rebalancing of relationships between the U.S. and some of the regional states. The ability of the U.S. to influence the future course of events will in turn be influenced by the role China and Russia in the evolving landscape.

(...) [artículo aquí]

Thursday 26 May 2011

ECONOMIC REFORM IN NORTH KOREA?

Reuters DEF

CHINA SEEN NUDGING NORTH KOREA'S KIM ON ECONOMIC REFORM

Chris Buckley

Reuters, May 26, 2011

BEIJING (Reuters) - North Korea's secretive leader Kim Jong-il finished his latest visit to the Chinese capital on Thursday, embarking on the next and possibly last leg of a train journey that Beijing has used as a rolling tutorial in the virtues of economic reform.

Kim's armored train rolled out of Beijing in the afternoon, accompanied by the heavy security that has been his calling card in a visit through northeast China to the prosperous eastern province of Jiangsu and then to Beijing, most probably for a summit with Chinese leaders.

It was Kim's third trip to Asia's biggest economy in just over a year, and the journey featured stopovers that may offer lessons for his own tattered and top-down controlled economy.

Kim may take home some new ideas for his drive to make North Korea richer, but experts are not expecting a surge of reform. His many past visits to China have not brought that.

But Kim's visit to China in August left the "impression that the Chinese were trying to push harder on the North Koreans to move in the direction of undertaking certain kinds of economic reforms," said Scott Snyder, an Washington D.C.-based expert on North Korea at the Asia Foundation.

"The Chinese had led the horse to the water many times, and now they were going to make the horse drink," said Snyder.

Beijing has used Kim's visits to urge him to return to negotiations aimed at ending his nuclear weapons program. North Korea alarmed the region with atomic test blasts in 2006 and 2009 that drew U.N. sanctions backed by China.

In the past, Kim has rarely travelled abroad and then only in his personal train. He is believed to be scared of flying.

(...) [artículo aquí]

Wednesday 25 May 2011

CHINA’S INVESTMENT

WSJ

PREPARE FOR AN ATTACK OF THE CHINA BEARS

Tom Orlik

The Wall Street Journal, May 25, 2011

The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that China's investment-led economy tilted further out of whack in 2010.

Investment as a share of GDP came in at a record 46.2% in 2010, up from 45.2% in 2009. Household consumption fell to 33.8%, down from 35% the previous year.

High levels of investment and low domestic consumption are a reminder of all the things wrong with China's economy: excess industrial capacity, real estate bubbles and a population that's still happier stuffing cash under the mattress than spending it in shops. Pessimists say such unbalanced growth can't be sustained.

(...) [artículo aquí]

Tuesday 24 May 2011

CHINA AND THE IMF

Reuters DEF

EMERGING NATIONS SHOULD HAVE SAY ON IMF HEAD - CHINA ADVISER

Reuters, May 24, 2011

BEIJING (Reuters) - Emerging economies should have a say on who should take the helm of the International Monetary Fund, but overhauling the global agency is more important than the succession issue, an adviser to the People's Bank of China said on Tuesday.

Xia Bin, who sits on the central bank's monetary policy committee, also told Reuters that reform of the IMF could not make significant progress unless the United States is willing to give up its dominant voting share in favour of developing countries.

"It's not a issue of who will be the candidate for the IMF managing director. The problem is that the voting share of the United States is too big," he said.

French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde has emerged as a front-runner to succeed the fund's jailed managing director, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, but developing economies, with growing global clout, are keeping pressure on Europe and the United States to avoid a backroom deal over the appointment.

"The voice of emerging-market economies should be heard, but emerging markets must realise that reform of the global monetary systems is a long process," Xia said.

(...) [artículo aquí]

Monday 23 May 2011

CHINA’S GHOST CITIES

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THE PHANTOM GROWTH OF CHINA'S GHOST CITIES

Justice Little

Seeking Alpha, May 23, 2011

Bloomberg has a new video series out called "China's Ghost Cities." (You can watch the first segment here on YouTube).

The reporter, Adam Johnson, describes how the Chinese government is building massive cities that no one lives in yet. The expectation is that China is going to "grow" into these cities.

A remarkable idea, really. The authoritarian planners in Beijing or wherever decide it would be good if, say, a million people or more could relocate to a pre-planned area.

Then they build out the infrastructure -- or rather the entire metropolis, skyscrapers, stoplights and all -- and wait.

Stop for a moment and ponder how nutty this is. The last time your editor checked, central planning was not a huge success. According to history, bureaucrats wielding directives over long distances tend to allocate resources poorly.

But are ghost cities a recipe for a bust? Some say no. The Bloomberg reporter, for instance, assures us that China's economics are different -- that is to say, "it's different this time." (Where have we heard that before ... )

(...) [artículo aquí]

Sunday 22 May 2011

PAKISTÁN

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INDIA Y PAKISTÁN, UNA OBSESIÓN MUTUA

La desconfianza fuerza a Islamabad a mantener un Ejército de medio millón de hombres y un arsenal nuclear, a expensas de la educación y el desarrollo

Ángeles Espinosa

El País, 22 de mayo de 2010

El hallazgo de Osama bin Laden en Pakistán ha dado un nuevo argumento a India, que acusa a su vecino de estar detrás de los terroristas que periódicamente atentan en su territorio. La subsecuente filtración por Nueva Delhi de una lista de sospechosos que entregó a Islamabad en marzo, ha añadido leña al fuego. A los paquistaníes no les quita el sueño esa enemistad sino la falta de electricidad y la inflación. Pero su política exterior y de seguridad se funda en la obsesión con India.

"India se regocija en nuestros problemas. Cada vez que Pakistán se encuentra en situación de debilidad o comete un error, su política es aprovecharse", sostiene Mosharraf Zaidi, consultor internacional y participante en un esfuerzo de diplomacia paralela con el país vecino. Zaidi pone como ejemplo que tras la operación estadounidense que mató a Bin Laden, la portavoz de Exteriores india "tuiteó todos los artículos que destacaban los problemas de Pakistán". En su opinión, eso "aumenta la desconfianza recíproca y dificulta el acercamiento".

Ambos países trataban de reanudar el proceso de paz interrumpido por India a raíz de los atentados de Bombay de 2008, que dejaron 166 muertos y pistas que apuntaban a Pakistán. El descubrimiento de Bin Laden malogró el intento. El jefe del Ejército indio dijo a un periodista que los comandos indios también eran capaces de llevar a cabo una acción similar. Un indignado responsable paquistaní le replicó que la "reacción no llevaría horas sino minutos".

Ayesha Siddiqa, autora de varios libros sobre las Fuerzas Armadas, coincide en que las relaciones van a ser más problemáticas a corto plazo, pero no muestra tanta desconfianza hacia India. "Su ministro de Exteriores mantuvo una reunión con la prensa en la que advirtió que no se fantaseara con la posibilidad de una acción similar. La prensa india está dominada por los halcones, pero el Gobierno es más responsable. Espero que no se aproveche de la situación", manifiesta.

(...) [artículo aquí]

Friday 20 May 2011

CHINA’S NUCLEAR BUILD-UP

The Diplomat

HOW CHINA GAINS FROM FUKUSHIMA

As public opinion turns against nuclear power in Asia’s democracies, could China step in—and grab some extra strategic clout in the process?

Saurav Jha

The Diplomat, May 20, 2011

With Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan’s popularity sagging over his administration’s handling of the triple earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis, and with concerns growing over the safety of nuclear power, it seems little wonder that he announced last week that the country’s energy policy needed to ‘start from scratch.’

The announcement, which included a decision to abandon plans announced last year for 14 new reactors, came shortly after the government had been forced to lean on Chubu Electric Power Co. to shut down the Hamaoka nuclear plant over safety considerations. But the implications of Kan’s announcement stretch well beyond Japan’s shores. Other Asian nuclear democracies such as South Korea and India have also called for safety reviews, while renewing their support for nuclear power. With Western media continuing to run periodic scare stories about the fallout from Fukushima, it’s clear there could be one big winner from Japan’s crisis—China.

Less fettered by popular opinion, China could use its massive nuclear build-up to become the cornerstone of the nuclear industry, with global implications. Even before Fukushima, Chinese authorities believed that rapidly expanding energy demand meant the country had to look beyond its traditional reliance on coal.

(...) [artículo aquí]

Wednesday 18 May 2011

JAPAN’S RECESSION

Bloomberg_logo

JAPAN FALLS INTO RECESSION AFTER ECONOMY SHRINKS 3.7%

Keiko Ujikane

Bloomberg, May 19, 2011

Japan’s economy shrank more than estimated in the first quarter after the March 11 earthquake and tsunami disrupted production and prompted consumers to cut back spending, sending the nation to its third recession in a decade.

Gross domestic product contracted an annualized 3.7 percent in the three months through March, following a revised 3 percent drop in the previous quarter, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo. The median forecast of 23 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 1.9 percent drop.

The March disaster hit an economy already weighed down by years of deflation and subdued consumer spending, and slashed profits at companies including Toyota Motor Corp. as factories were shut. The economy may further contract in the second quarter before rebounding later this year as reconstruction spending kicks in.

“The contraction in the second quarter will probably be even bigger as consumer spending and exports slump,” said Norio Miyagawa, senior economist at Mizuho Securities Research and Consulting Co. in Tokyo. “The economy will likely return to growth from the third quarter once the supply-chain disruption eases and reconstruction work begins.”

(...) [artículo aquí]

Tuesday 17 May 2011

STATE ELECTIONS IN INDIA

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STATES OF FLUX IN INDIA

Sudha Ramachandran

Asia Times, May 17, 2011

BANGALORE - India's voters have once again proved that they will not be taken for granted. Of the four states and one union territory that went to the polls to elect state assemblies, in all but one - Assam - voters have dumped the ruling party/coalition.

Analysts had predicted that the result in Tamil Nadu would be close, that even if the ruling Dravida Munetra Kazhagam (DMK) lost, it would only be by a few seats. Pollsters predicted that Tamil voters were so addicted to freebies being extended to them by the DMK that they would ignore allegations of corruption (several DMK members of parliament are under investigation in the US$39 billion 2-G spectrum scam). They were proved wrong.

Sure, voters lapped up the liquor bottles and the wads of currency notes that came their way during the campaign. But on polling day, they punished the DMK, inflicting on the party its worst electoral defeat since 1991, when it got just two seats.

If in Tamil Nadu it was corruption that triggered defeat, in West Bengal it was the ruling Left Front's arrogance and alienation from the common man. There, voters to put an end to 34 years of communist rule and voted in the Trinamool Congress, local ally of the national ruling Congress party. The left's defeat was expected. It had lost touch with the masses and the Bengalis wanted change. The Left Front's aligning with big capital against the rural poor sealed their fate.

(...) [artículo aquí]

Monday 16 May 2011

IS CHINA REBALANCING?

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CHINA: REBALANCING THROUGH WAGE INCREASES

Michael Pettis

Seeking Alpha, May 16, 2011

Is China currently rebalancing? The currency has been appreciating, the PBoC has hiked interest rates four times, and wages have been surging. Because of all of this I am often asked if China has finally begun the long-waited rebalancing process and whether we have yet seen an improvement in the underlying economy caused by a rising consumption share.

Those who were hoping the answer was yes will have been disappointed by the release Thursday of the World Bank’s China Quarterly Update – April 2011. Here is their summary:

China’s economic growth has remained resilient as the macro stance moved towards normalization. Both fiscal and monetary policy contributed to the normalization. Consumption growth slowed in early 2011. But overall domestic demand held up well, supported by still strong investment growth. Real estate investment has so far remained robust to measures to contain housing prices—a policy focus. Reducing inflation is the other policy priority, after inflation rose to 5.4%, largely on higher food prices.

So what is going on? Isn’t China doing all the right things – raising wages, the exchange rate and interest rates – and, if so, why isn’t the economy rebalancing towards higher levels of household income and consumption?

(...) [artículo aquí]

Sunday 15 May 2011

ASIA 2050

Business Standard

THE ASIAN CENTURY? THERE ARE NO GUARANTEES

Rajeev Anantaram

Business Standard, May 15, 2011

Asia cannot take its success for granted - weak institutional capabilities, ineffective governance and income inequalities could derail the continent’s dream run.

The themes that have dominated the discourse in development economics since the 1970s, namely, the role of institutions and human capital in driving sustained economic growth and the limitations of ‘trickle down’ effects in spreading the benefits of economic growth uniformly, were revisited earlier this month at the annual conference of the Asian Development Bank in Hanoi, Vietnam, which saw the release of the draft report, Asia 2050 — Realizing the Asian Century.

The report identifies six themes that would drive Asia’s growth in the forthcoming decades: technical progress, capital accumulation, demographics and the labour force, the emerging middle class, climate change mitigation and the competition for resources, and the communications revolution. The sobering takeaway from the report is that Asia cannot take its success for granted — one or more of the above themes, in the absence of well-calibrated policies, could well derail Asia’s dream run.

The more optimistic of the two forecasts in the report, called the Asian Century, is considered a virtual certainty in contemporary popular imagination. Under this scenario, Asia would have a cumulative GDP of $148 trillion, a per capita GDP of $38,500 (in purchasing power parity) and account for 51 per cent of global output. The less sanguine prediction, called the Middle Income Trap, places the corresponding figures at $61 trillion, $20,300 and 32 per cent respectively.

(...) [artículo aquí]

Saturday 14 May 2011

ASIAN REALIGNMENT

American Thinker

JAPAN'S DISASTER MAY ACCELERATE REALIGNMENT IN THE EAST

Fay Voshell

American Thinker, May 14, 2011

The coastline of Japan is not the only shift that will have been caused by the earthquake and tsunami of March 11.

As significant as the material damage, which appears to be almost incalculable, and as worthy of attention as the economic damage, also titanic, is a potential shift in the international alliances and strategies in the Far East, particularly among China, Japan and the US and its allies.

The grim truth is that Japan, already beleaguered by a stagnant economy, a pitiless demographic decline,  and a fate-filled geographic location, now has been hit with devastation the equivalent of total war, including the continuing threat of nuclear disaster. One look at the satellite photographs reveals devastation that makes Sherman's march on Georgia and the Nazi blitz of London seem restrained.  

Japan has been critically wounded, and it will not be long before her ancient enemy China, and possibly China's ally North Korea, along with other opportunistic nations, move in to take advantage of her present weakness, as enemies always do. 

For Japan's situation is not like a nation such as France, which is ensconced amid European allies with empathetic governments and favorable economic alliances fostered by the European Union.  On the contrary, there has not been any particular inclination by China and North Korea to hammer out mutually agreeable agreements with Japan such as are characteristic of the Western democracies, regardless of their unique national distinctions and rivalries. China and North Korea are not democracies but authoritarian communist governments who see economic strategies in terms of command, not mutually satisfying cooperation.

(...) [artículo aquí]

Friday 13 May 2011

CHINA’S GROWTH

Business Standard

THE CHINA DEBATE

Growth in China may slow down, but excess domestic demand will ensure high growth rates

Akash Prakash

Business Standard, May 13, 2011

Getting China right is one of the most important calls investors have to make. The importance of China is driven by its impact on global growth, incremental consumption of commodities and its emergence as the second-largest economy in the world. If the economic boom in China persists, global economic growth will continue, emerging markets should continue to outperform and global commodity prices will be robust. However, if the bears are right, and we see a huge over-investment-related bust, industrial commodities will collapse, global growth will get a shock and all risk assets may encounter turbulence.

Both sides of the debate seem to agree that China will slow in 2011, and even 2012. Nobody expects China to continue growing at 10 per cent-plus, with expectations converging around 7 to 8 per cent in the foreseeable future. It is being agreed that domestic consumption will increasingly drive this growth. The Chinese government has introduced a slew of measures to raise consumption, such as lowering taxes, improving the social safety net and boosting workers’ disposable incomes.

The bulls believe that China will have a soft landing , exports will hold up and domestic consumption will accelerate — all this will compensate for some weakness in capital spending.

(...) [artículo aquí]

Monday 9 May 2011

INDONESIA’S ECONOMY

The Jakarta Post4

INDONESIA: TOWARDS A ONE TRILLION DOLLAR ECONOMY

Cyrillus Harinowo Hadiwerdoyo

The Jakarta Post, May 9, 2011

Last year Indonesia celebrated a new milestone for its economy. The Indonesian GDP per capita breached US$3,000 in 2010, a threshold that for a long time had been the target of the Chinese government.
In China, its Communist Party’s annual congress in 2002 decided on a target of $3,000 GDP per capita in 2020. That target was reaffirmed by President Hu Jintao in a speech delivered at the Boao Economic Forum in Hainan in 2004. Such a level was said to produce accelerated economic growth for 11 years in South Korea.

Apparently, the Chinese economy was able to achieve that level, not in 2020, but much earlier in 2008. And, the sector that benefited the most was the automotive industry. If Chinese domestic car sales reached one million in 2000, in 2009 sales had increased to 13.6 million, surpassing the United States to become the largest car market in the world.

Having reached a per capita GDP of $3,000, the Indonesian economy has shown more signs of becoming an extremely dynamic economy. Domestic car sales have once again increased by around 30 percent to 225,000 units in the first quarter of 2011.

Looking at historic patterns, if there are no supply disruptions from the critical components produced in the earthquake-affected area in Japan, the rest of the year will see a further rise in sales. Thus, over 900,000 cars may be sold domestically in 2011, a level just a few inches closer to the new milestone of one million cars.

(...) [artículo aquí]

Sunday 8 May 2011

INDIA AND PAKISTAN’S TROUBLES

The Economic Times

NO ADVANTAGE FOR INDIA IN US-PAKISTAN TROUBLES: ANALYSTS

The Economic Times, May 8, 2011

NEW DELHI: Strained US- Pakistan ties following the US raid that killed Osama bin Laden are being seen in India as an opportunity to ramp up pressure on Islamabad over militant groups operating on Pakistani soil.

But analysts say India's leverage remains strictly limited as long as the US priority in South Asia remains the conflict in Afghanistan -- for which Washington's dependence on Pakistan shows no short-term sign of waning.

In the immediate aftermath of bin Laden's death, India seized on the fact that the Al-Qaeda leader had been hiding barely two hours' drive from Islamabad as proof of the Pakistani establishment's collusion with outlawed militants.

"This fact underlines our concern that terrorists belonging to different organisations find sanctuary in Pakistan," Home Minister P. Chidambaram said.

Foreign Minister S.M. Krishna joined in, calling on world powers to help eliminate "safe havens that have been provided to terrorists in our own neighbourhood."

(...) [artículo aquí]

Saturday 7 May 2011

PAKISTAN’S CREDIBILITY

The Economic TimesPAKISTAN CREDIBILITY SUFFERED SERIOUS BLOW AFTER OSAMA'S DEATH: CRS REPORT

The Economic Times, May 7, 2011

WASHINGTON: Pakistan's credibility has suffered a “US blow" in the aftermath of the killing of Osama bin Laden at a compound near its premier military academy in Abbottabad, where the dreaded terrorist had been living for years, a Congressional report has said.
The location and circumstances of bin Laden's killing have “exacerbated Washington's long-held doubts about Pakistan's commitment to ostensibly shared goals of defeating religious extremism, and may jeopardise future US assistance to Pakistan," the Congressional Research Service (CRS) said in its latest report on the implication of the al-Qaeda chief's death.

CRS, an independent research wing of the US Congress, prepares periodic report for lawmakers, which is strictly for circulation among Congressmen.

”For a wide array of observers, the outcome of the years-long hunt for OBL (Osama bin Laden) leaves only two realistic conclusions: either Pakistani officials were at some level complicit in hiding the fugitive, or the country's military and intelligence services were exceedingly incompetent in their search for top AQ (al-Qaeda) leaders," it said.

(...) [artículo aquí]

Friday 6 May 2011

PAKISTAN’S MILITARY

Time

TAKING HEAT ON BIN LADEN, PAKISTAN'S MILITARY SEEKS TO EXPLAIN ITSELF

Omar Waraich

Time, May 6, 2011

Stung by the embarrassment of the discovery and death of Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad on Monday, Pakistan's powerful military establishment is under pressure to make changes in its relationship with key allies, and in its fight against terrorism.

After three days of sedulous silence on the matter, the military and intelligence leadership on Thursday shared its perspective on the Abbottabad debacle with a select group of senior Pakistani journalists — no foreign news media were invited. The rare closed-door briefing was prompted by a desire to challenge an emerging global narrative that incriminated Pakistan's security establishment in bin-Laden's ability to elude capture, according to some of those present.

General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani reiterated at the briefing that Pakistan had not been informed of the raid until it was over. The first communication from the U.S. was a phone call at around 5 a.m. Pakistan time from Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Adm. Mike Mullen. Kayani congratulated Mullen on the mission's success, but pleaded that President Barack Obama should refrain from "negative remarks" about Pakistan in his planned address — and was pleased that Obama's live TV announcement avoided criticizing Pakistan.

(...) [artículo aquí]

Thursday 5 May 2011

PAKISTAN’S MILITARY AND INTELLIGENCE

WashPost logo3

IN PAKISTAN, RARE DOUBTS ABOUT MILITARY AND INTELLIGENCE SERVICE OVER BIN LADEN CASE

Karin Brulliard

The Washington Post, May 5, 2011

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — As neighbors and reporters swarmed the streets around Osama bin Laden’s compound this week, men in sunglasses and white tunics lurked about on motorbikes. Residents presumed they were Pakistani intelligence agents, there to keep tabs on who spoke to whom.

That counted as nothing unusual in a nation where the security establishment has cultivated an image as a nearly omnipresent force that is watchful above all of foreigners who go near military installations.

Yet given the choice between pleading incompetence or complicity in bin Laden’s years-long stay in the garrison city of Abbottabad, Pakistani authorities have opted for the former. It is an explanation that strains credulity for many international observers, including U.S. policymakers, who have demanded an investigation into whether Pakistan sheltered the al-Qaeda leader.

Pakistanis have been more inclined to believe that their government was unaware of bin Laden’s presence. But the admissions of error by Pakistani authorities have prompted unusual questioning of a central tenet of the national narrative: that the military and intelligence services are untouchable guarantors of Pakistan’s safety.

Some of the discord centers on the United States, which the Pakistani government rebuked for carrying out an “unauthorized” operation when it choppered in Navy SEALs to raid bin Laden’s sanctuary.

(...) [artículo aquí]

Wednesday 4 May 2011

PAKISTAN AND THE US

guardian_logo

OSAMA BIN LADEN KILLING PROMPTS WAR OF WORDS BETWEEN PAKISTAN AND US

Pakistan says raid on Bin Laden's house was 'unauthorised' while CIA director defends decision not to inform Islamabad

Declan Walsh

The Guardian, May 4, 2011

The war of words between Pakistan and the US in the wake of Osama bin Laden's killing has intensified as senior officials on both sides traded barbs that underlined their mutual mistrust, and the White House reversed its position on key details of the raid.

In Islamabad the Pakistani foreign ministry issued a hard-worded statement condemning the raid on Bin Laden's house as an "unauthorised unilateral action", and warned that it would not be tolerated in future.

In Washington, the CIA chief Leon Panetta said Pakistan was not informed of the assault on Abbottabad, a military garrison town, because US officials feared the al-Qaida leader could have been warned in advance.

(...) [artículo aquí]

Tuesday 3 May 2011

PAKISTAN AFTER BIN LADEN’S DEATH

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QUIET EMBARRASSMENT IN PAKISTAN AFTER KILLING OF BIN LADEN

Zeeshan Haider

Reuters, May 3, 2011

ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - There were no protests and no extra security in Pakistan on Tuesday, a day after the killing of Osama bin Laden by U.S. forces, just a sense of embarrassment and indifference that the al Qaeda leader had managed to lie low for years in a Pakistan garrison town.

"The failure of Pakistan to detect the presence of the world's most-wanted man here is shocking," The News said in an editorial, reflecting the general tone in the media, where some commentators predicted that Washington would take action to show its displeasure with Islamabad.

Bin Laden was shot dead early on Monday morning by U.S. commandos who dropped by helicopter into the compound where he had lived since 2005.

It had long been thought that he was hiding in Pakistan's lawless tribal belt in the northwest near the border with Afghanistan, so it came as a huge surprise to many that he had been holed up in a town less than two hours' drive from Islamabad and just a stone's throw from a military academy.

President Asif Ali Zardari, writing on Monday in the Washington Post, said Pakistan's security forces were left out of the raid on the hideout in the town of Abbottabad and insisted that the authorities had thought he was somewhere else.

However, Zardari has made no address to the people of a country where anti-American sentiment runs high, prompting one Twitter user to tweet "Most wanted man is killed on Pakistani soil and the Pres doesn't address his people, instead writes an op-ed for USA."

(...) [artículo aquí]

Monday 2 May 2011

BIN LADEN’S DEATH AND INDIA-PAKISTAN

India Real Time

COULD BIN LADEN KILLING POISON INDIA-PAKISTAN TALKS?

India RealTime, May 2, 2011

One of the big questions in South Asia after the killing of Osama bin Laden in a compound in Abbottabad outside Islamabad is how it will affect the early steps toward peace that India and Pakistan have been taking lately.

There are a few bleak possibilities. It could potentially poison the process by reinforcing the narrative of Pakistan as a terrorist sanctuary and make it difficult – politically and practically – for Indian officials to make a deal with their neighbors. Pakistan has said consistently that it was unaware of the al Qaeda leader’s whereabouts, yet he was living a few miles from a Pakistani military academy.

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has made striving for peace with Pakistan a top priority of his administration, but hawks in India will ask: if bin Laden could evade capture in a highly populated Pakistani city and in a mansion much larger than nearby houses, then what hope is there really of getting Islamabad to track down more shadowy elements of Lashkar-e-Taiba and other militant groups India wants to see punished.

The hawks will also ask: if the U.S. didn’t trust Pakistan enough to give it prior warning of the assault on Mr. bin Laden’s compound – the story senior U.S. officials are telling – then why should Indian diplomats and military officials trust their Pakistani counterparts in peace talks?

(...) [artículo aquí]

Sunday 1 May 2011

TOURISM IN JAPAN AFTER MARCH 11

The Telegraph DEF

TOURISM SLOWLY RETURNS TO JAPAN

Almost two months on from the earthquake, Japan is starting to find its feet.

Nina Grunfeld

The Telegraph, May 1, 2011

After showing us to our room on the 42nd floor of our Tokyo hotel, the porter said firmly: "If there's an earthquake, get away from the window and stay in bed. The cupboard doors will bang from side to side, but ignore them – they've been designed to do that. Instead, listen out for the tannoy and follow any instructions. The fire escapes are to your left."

After that I couldn't sleep. What was I doing taking my 12-year-old son to such a danger zone? We didn't have an earthquake that night, but there was an aftershock the following evening – the second we experienced during our week-long trip to Japan earlier this month. I didn't feel it, but my son Thomas, lying in bed at the time, did and was distinctly nervous about another night so many floors above the ground.

(...) [artículo aquí]