CONFUSION OVER TALIBAN MUDDIES THE ISSUES IN PAKISTAN
Are fighters religious zealots, thugs or revolutionaries? The perceptions of the public, leaders and U.S. are at odds, but the overriding sentiment in Pakistan is that 'America created this problem.'

Mark Magnier

Los Angeles Times, May 10, 2009

Reporting from Islamabad, Pakistan — Islamic militants who burn schools and threaten women in the name of religious purity. A righteous force battling corrupt and venal officials. Or gun-waving gangsters who conceal their crimes under a banner of spiritual renewal.

Weeks of turmoil have made it appear as though a unified Taliban is on the march out of the wild northwest, staking out strategic ground for an assault on Pakistan's heartland.

But who exactly the Taliban is may rest in the eye of the beholder.

Many Pakistanis don't see the Taliban as much of a threat and are not eager for a confrontation. On the other hand, oversimplification may lead policymakers toward a one-size-fits-all solution that is ineffective -- or even counterproductive.

On Saturday, army helicopters and jets hit militant positions as a curfew kept more civilians from fleeing the violence-hit area. The military said up to 55 militants were killed and four soldiers were wounded, figures that could not be independently verified. Militants also reportedly fired rockets at an army base in Mingora, the biggest town in the Swat Valley.

After a half-hearted military operation in Swat in late 2007 and early 2008, the government tried to reach an accommodation, allowing the militants to impose Islamic law in the region. Only when the Taliban continued advancing toward the capital did the army act.

Among the most confusing elements of the conflict is whom, exactly, the army is fighting.

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EUROPEAN UNION SIGNS A PACT ON A PIPELINE FOR GAS FROM THE CASPIAN SEA

Dan Bilefsky

The New York Times, May 9, 2009

PRAGUE — The European Union signed an energy agreement on Friday aimed at speeding up the construction of a long-delayed pipeline that would bring gas from the Caspian Sea to Europe and help offset the bloc’s dependence on Russian energy.

The agreement, signed by the leaders of Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey and Egypt at a summit meeting in Prague, centers on the 2,000-mile Nabucco pipeline, which would bring Central Asian gas to Europe without passing through Russian territory. The European Union hopes the pipeline will start pumping gas to Europe by 2014. The pressing need to find an alternative to Russian supply was underlined in January when a pricing dispute between Russia and Ukraine resulted in a shortage of gas supplies in several European countries.

Turkey, whose cooperation is essential for the pipeline, has haggled for months over transit rules. It indicated on Friday that it was prepared to sign a transit deal by June. But Turkey’s president, Abdullah Gul, also made it clear that his acquiescence would depend on some progress in Turkey’s talks on membership in the European Union, which have stalled in recent months.

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IS A BETTER GOVERNMENT POSSIBLE IN PAKISTAN?

Omar Waraich

Time, May 8, 2009

Although President Barack Obama on Wednesday pledged unwavering backing for Pakistan's government in its battle with extremists, his Administration has recognized the potentially crippling political weakness of President Asif Ali Zardari. That's why Washington has been quietly urging the leader of the opposition, former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, to join his arch-rival Zardari in a unity government to lead the fight against Islamist militancy. The shift is hardly surprising given Zardari's perilously low approval ratings and Sharif's reemergence as Pakistan's most popular politician — but it caps a remarkable comeback for a man left for dead politically when he was ousted from power in General Pervez Musharraf's 1999 coup.

The coup forced the twice former Prime Minister into exile in London, as his party's parliamentary representation plummeted from a two-thirds majority to a mere 16 seats. Even when the U.S. brokered a deal with Musharraf to allow the return of Benazir Bhutto and her husband, Zardari, Sharif was left to stew in exile, mistrusted by Washington as too close to the Islamists. Eventually, he returned without a deal, his party finishing second to Zardari's in the election that ousted Musharraf — although the unity government they formed soon broke up in a fierce power struggle. But as Zardari's political fortunes have plummeted amid Pakistan's roiling security and economic crises, Sharif has emerged as an improbable savior. In the days before Zardari's Washington visit, Pakistan's media was filled with reports about U.S. efforts to persuade him and Nawaz Sharif to form a united front against the Taliban.

With Pakistan now facing multiple crises, "the perception is that Mr Zardari on his own cannot carry the country," says Najam Sethi, editor of the Daily Times newspaper. Analysts believe the military will only launch a concerted offensive to roll back recent Taliban gains if such a campaign has broad-based public support. That fact, together with the challenge of cooling ethnic tensions in Karachi, addressing the separatist challenge in the impoverished province of Baluchistan, and rescuing the basket-case economy whose decline fuels social tension, make a strong case for a unity government. Sharif's popularity could potentially generate support for a campaign against militancy, and he has lately spoken out strongly against the Taliban's advances. What's more, both leaders share a desire for peace with India, against which the bulk of Pakistan's military is focused.

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INDIA LOOKS ON AS THE EAST INTEGRATES

Zorawar Daulet Singh

Asia Times, May 7, 2009

NEW DELHI - The agreement by the finance ministers of China, Japan, South Korea and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN+3) last week to create a US$120 billion regional reserve pool "to address short-term liquidity difficulties in the region and to supplement the existing international financial arrangements" must surely be another milestone in East Asian geoeconomics.

This, however, is not an unsurprising development but part of a trend to integration that has characterized the political economy of the region. India remains disconnected from this geoeconomic space. For too long, the country's look-East policy has been based on rhetorical aspirations rather than on immersing India into the commercial networks that have entwined the nations of East Asia.

The popular images that animate any discussion on East Asia, such as those concerning the North Korean nuclear question, the naval dimension and sea-lane security, and disputes in the South China Sea, tend to emphasize the latent, potential and ongoing conflicts in the region while crowding out any meaningful conversation on the question of economic interdependence. This is partly a result in India of a security bias within the security establishment whereby it tends to project India's perspectives on China onto other actors in the region. For the major part, however, this is because India's own economic linkages with the East are relatively perfunctory.

It is worth highlighting the underlying dynamic that enables interdependence to operate. While some analysts have opined that the economic impulse in the region has a life of its own, and security considerations have been subordinated by geoeconomics, such a perspective does not address the reality that East Asian actors have made a conscious political choice to stimulate commerce.

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ELECTIONS IN INDIA: THE COUNTDOWN BEGINS

Megha Bahree

Forbes, May 6, 2009

As the world's largest democracy goes to the polls, there are a bunch of impressive data that can be thrown around: 714 million registered voters, 828,804 polling stations, 1.36 million electronic voting machines, 6.1 million police and civil personnel on the job and candidates from a stunning 1,055 political parties.

In the midst of all that, the world is waiting for the outcome to see how India's foreign policy could change under a new administration. This is especially true for India's neighbors, China and Pakistan.

While every pundit agrees India will emerge with another coalition government, it's nearly impossible to say which party will hold sway. The voting process is staggered across a month and vote counting begins on May 16.

The two main national parties -- the Indian National Congress that leads the incumbent coalition known as the United Progressive Alliance -- and the Hindu nationalist Bhartiya Janata Party that led the previous coalition known as the National Democratic Alliance -- are feeling the heat from a new alliance of the Left wing and regional parties. Labeled as the Third Front, this could be headed by a Dalit leader, Mayawati, with the help of the left-wing parties.

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SIGNS OF RECOVERY IN CHINA'S WORKSHOPS RAISE FEARS FOR ASIAN INDUSTRY AND PRICES

Leo Lewis

The Times, May 5, 2009

Industry across Asia may be at risk from a sudden revival in Chinese manufacturing as the workshop of the world is lifted out of a nine-month slump with the help of a $600 billion (£400 billion) monetary and fiscal government stimulus.

Traders in Shanghai and Hong Kong have taken yesterday's manufacturing data as a clear sign of recovery for the world's third-biggest economy. New jobs have been created, output has returned to positive territory and factories across a broad range of sectors received new orders in April. This is in sharp contrast to the scene late last year, when tens of thousands of factories closed and 20 million migrant workers were laid off.

The revival in manufacturing was signalled by a striking bounce in the Asia-based brokerage CLSA's Purchasing Managers' Index for April — a closely watched monthly report viewed by many investors as a more reliable snapshot of the industrial status quo in China than the official figures produced by Beijing.

The survey of industry executives showed the index pushing narrowly back above the critical level of 50 for the first time since July last year. A number below that level — such as the dismal March figure of 44.8 — implies contraction in manufacturing; anything above it signals expansion. The recovery of the PMI to a level of 50.1 can be attributed to the country's vast stimulus package. according to CLSA's analsyis. Backed by record bank lending, the Government implemented measures designed to prevent the Chinese economy from tumbling too far below the politically sensitive GDP growth rate of 8 per cent.

“China's Government has been extremely successful in stimulating investment and, combined with a sharp improvement in export orders, this has pushed the PMI back into positive territory in April,” the report said, adding that the Government's spending should keep the PMI above 50 in coming months.

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EL INTEGRISMO AVANZA EN PAKISTÁN
La violencia sectaria contra las minorías religiosas se recrudece ante la pasividad oficial - Los radicales imponen su ideología en las escuelas coránicas

Ángeles Espinosa

El País, 4 de mayo de 2009

Los problemas para ejercer la libertad religiosa han convertido a Pakistán en un "país de especial preocupación" para Estados Unidos. Así lo recoge el último informe de la Comisión sobre Libertad Religiosa Internacional, una agencia financiada por el Gobierno norteamericano para vigilar la libertad de conciencia, pensamiento y religión. Aunque el Departamento de Estado todavía no ha hecho suya esa recomendación, el texto hecho público el pasado viernes constata el aumento del peso y el alcance de los grupos extremistas religiosos en lo que va de año.

La citada comisión expresa su preocupación porque el Gobierno de Islamabad no actúa con la suficiente contundencia para frenar la violencia sectaria contra las minorías religiosas. Pakistán se suma así a un club en el que también están Irán, Irak, China, Corea del Norte, Arabia Saudí, Sudán o Vietnam, entre otros. Lo que es más grave, su informe recoge testimonios de observadores paquistaníes y extranjeros que vinculan a los servicios secretos tanto con los talibanes como con otros grupos violentos, tal que Lashkar-e-Tayba.

El texto denuncia que la ideología sectaria de que hacen gala esas organizaciones sigue enseñándose en muchas escuelas coránicas del país. Aunque, a mediados de 2005, las autoridades procedieron a registrar esas madrazas, apenas han tomado medidas para controlar sus currículos o sus fuentes de financiación.

Al final, esas enseñanzas son el fermento que está detrás de la mayoría de los incidentes violentos que sufren las minorías. Tanto chiíes (que suponen cerca de un 20% de la población), como cristianos, hindúes y ahmadis (que juntos apenas suman un 5%) siguen siendo objeto de amenazas y ataques por parte de fanáticos suníes que no aceptan credos distintos al suyo.

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