EL ESCENARIO 'CHINDIA'

Pablo Bustelo

Madri+d, Análisis, 9 de junio de 2009

Aunque se suele dar por supuesto que las economías de China e India serán cada vez más competitivas entre sí, ese escenario no es en absoluto inevitable. De hecho, las tendencias económicas de los últimos años y las previsibles en un futuro cercano apuntan a un escenario de complementariedad o de división del trabajo entre China e India. Ese escenario, que se puede denominar "Chindia", sería el resultado de la creciente superioridad de China en la producción y exportación de manufacturas y de la continua especialización de la India en la exportación de servicios de tecnologías de la información (STI), así como de la complementariedad y colaboración de los dos países en otros campos, como la atracción de inversión directa extranjera y de inversión en cartera en bonos y seguramente también el acceso a los recursos energéticos.

Muchos especialistas suelen dar por supuesto que las economías de los dos gigantes demográficos de Asia, China e India, serán cada vez más competitivas entre sí. En otras palabras, que lo que ocurrirá en los próximos decenios es que China se adentrará con éxito en las exportación de servicios de tecnologías de la información (STI), campo en el que la India ha destacado hasta ahora, mientras que la India empezará a exportar masivamente productos manufacturados, labor en la que hasta ahora China no ha tenido rival entre los países en desarrollo.

Y también que la rivalidad entre China e India aumentará en aspectos como la captación de inversión extranjera o el acceso a las materias primas.

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PAKISTAN PUT ON THE SPOT

Syed Saleem Shahzad

Asia Times, June 9, 2009

BRUSSELS - After Afghanistan, Pakistan is the new battleground for the United States-led war against Islamic militants, with fighting raging in the Swat area of North-West Frontier Province and threatening to spread not only to the country's urban areas but to Iran and beyond.

Washington is acutely aware of a possible regional crisis and is doing its utmost to convince its allies in Europe to muster all possible support for its client Pakistani establishment before the crisis gets out of hand.

The US's backroom lobbying helped Pakistan obtain commitments of over US$5 billion in aid at April's international donors' conference in Tokyo. But while the Barack Obama administration has made a strong case for increased European support, the difficult part is to agree on the best arrangement under which European capitals could help Pakistan.

The first-ever European Union-Pakistan summit scheduled for June 16-17 in Brussels will primarily focus on counter-terrorism. Leading analysts contend, however, that what really is at stake is Pakistan's strategic relations with the West, given its growing economic dependence of foreign aid.

(...) [artículo aquí]

EL HAMBRE REGRESA CON FUERZA A LOS PAÍSES DEL SUR DE ASIA
El número de desnutridos de la región ha aumentado un 30% en dos años

Ana Gabriela Rojas

El País, 8 de junio de 2009

Una madre y sus dos hijos comen ansiosamente de un plato de arroz bajo un árbol en las calles de Nueva Delhi, la capital de India. "Hoy tuvimos suerte y pude conseguir un poco de pescado, pero comer carne es un lujo", cuenta Mahayavi, de 35 años. Desde hace dos su marido está en la cárcel, y ella tiene que mendigar para conseguir de 50 a 90 rupias diarias (de 0,75 a 1,35 euros), lo que le alcanza para llevar algo a la boca de su familia, pero nada más: el árbol bajo el que comen es su único refugio en esta ciudad de climas extremos. Estos días no es raro que el termómetro llegue a los 45 grados centígrados durante el día y que alguna noche una tormenta lo inunde todo.

El encarcelamiento del marido de Mahayavi dejó a su familia desprotegida en el peor momento. El hambre crónica se ha cebado en 100 millones más de personas en el sur de Asia en los últimos dos años, según un informe de Unicef publicado esta semana. Aunque el problema ya era de por sí grave en la región -que incluye Afganistán, Pakistán, India, Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Bután y las Maldivas-, se ha llegado a más de 400 millones de hambrientos, las peores cifras en los últimos cuarenta años (y un 40% del total en todo el mundo). Un paso atrás muy acusado en una región cuyo PIB subió de promedio casi un 10% entre 2005 y 2007.

(...) [artículo aquí]

BUMP UP EXPORTS

Rajiv Kumar

The Week, June 14, 2009

The 6.7 per cent GDP growth in 2008-09 is significantly lower than the 9 per cent achieved in 2007-08. However, it is above expectations and indeed a sterling performance considering the troubled times. The 5.8 per cent growth in the second half of the fiscal year, though sharply lower than the growth in the first half, was achieved principally by an increase in government expenditure.

This is reflected in the 22 per cent increase in the community, social and personal services segments. This is a one-off hike on account of the Sixth Pay Commission and will not provide any future impetus. It is a little bit surprising to see trade, transport, hotel and communication sectors registering a 9 per cent growth, with agriculture and manufacturing sectors, which provide the demand for these services, seeing a decline. Agriculture growth slowed down from 4.7 per cent in 2007-08 to 1.6 per cent in 2008-09. Manufacturing growth slowed down from 8.2 per cent to a mere 2.4 per cent.

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U.S. PUSHES U.N. DRAFT ON N. KOREA

Security Council Resolution Would Target Funds for Military

Colum Lynch and Glenn Kessler

The Washington Post, June 6, 2009

UNITED NATIONS, June 5 -- The United States and its allies are pressing for the Security Council to adopt a U.N. resolution that would further restrain North Korea's capacity to finance its military ambitions.

The resolution would also urge states to seize cargo suspected of being used to support North Korea's ballistic-missile or nuclear weapons programs. But China is blocking approval, on the grounds that some of the toughest provisions are too provocative, according to diplomats.

The negotiations on new sanctions, which will continue through the weekend, come nearly two weeks after North Korea launched its second underground nuclear test. That was quickly followed by a series of missile test launches that have rattled its neighbors and complicated U.S. efforts to resume nuclear talks with the North.

State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley confirmed yesterday that the United States was considering targeting North Korea's access to financial markets. A draft of the resolution urges U.N. member states to cut loans, financial assistance and grants to North Korea and its suppliers for programs linked to its military program. The draft also expands an asset freeze and travel ban.

(...) [artículo aquí]

BULLETS OVER BEIJING

Nicholas D. Kristof

The New York Times, June 4, 2009

It was exactly 20 years ago that I stood on the northwest corner of Tiananmen Square and watched “People’s China” open fire on the people.

It was night; the gunfire roared in our ears; and the Avenue of Eternal Peace was streaked with blood. Uniformed army troops massed on the far end of the square, periodically raising their assault rifles and firing volleys directly at the crowd I was in, and we would all rush backward in terror until the firing stopped.

Then the volley would end, and in the deafening silence we would stop and look back. In the hundred yards between us and the soldiers would be kids who had been shot, lying dead or wounded on the ground.

Some protesters shouted insults at the troops or threw bricks or Molotov cocktails that landed ineffectually in the open area. But none of us dared to go forward to help the injured as they writhed. I was the Beijing bureau chief for this newspaper, and I was cowering behind a layer of other people whom I hoped would absorb bullets; the notebook in my hand was stained with perspiration from fear.

Troops had already opened fire on an ambulance that had tried to collect the injured, so other ambulances kept their distance. Finally, some unlikely saviors emerged — the rickshaw drivers.

These were peasants and workers who made a living pedaling bicycle rickshaws, carrying passengers or freight around Beijing. It was those rickshaw drivers who slowly pedaled out toward the troops to collect the bodies of the dead and injured. Then they raced back to us, legs straining furiously, rushing toward the nearest hospital.

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NORTH KOREA'S 'CALCULATED CHESS MOVE'

Spiegel Online International, June 1, 2009

Sun Zhe is a professor at the Institute for International Studies at Beijing's Tsinghua University. In an interview with SPIEGEL, he discusses North Korea's recent nuclear tests, the friction they have caused with China and how China and the US can bring North Korea to the negotiating table.

SPIEGEL: Despite China and North Korea being close allies, Beijing failed to stop Kim Jong Il from conducting another nuclear test. Has China lost its influence over its former comrade in arms?
Sun Zhe: The North Koreans certainly did not listen to us. They currently don't view their relations with Beijing as a strategic priority. Their policies are completely oriented toward the Americans. There, they are playing a high-stakes game of poker.

SPIEGEL: What do the North Koreans really want?
Sun: They want to be treated as an equal partner by the US and by the other Western countries. And they absolutely want to have diplomatic relations with Washington.

SPIEGEL: And for that you have to detonate atomic bombs?
Sun: On the face of it, it indeed seems very strange. But it is a precisely calculated chess move. The North Koreans want to be noticed; they want to show something. However, with their tests, they disregarded the fact that the world is currently preoccupied with the financial crisis and swine flu.

SPIEGEL: What should Beijing's reaction be?
Sun: The stated policy of the Chinese government is to bring North Korea back to the negotiating table of the six party talks, which aim at a Korean peninsula free of nuclear weapons.

(...) [artículo aquí]