CHINA’S FYP AND THE WORLD

ANALYSIS: WHY THE WORLD SHOULD HEED CHINA'S FIVE-YEAR PLAN

Alan Wheatley

Reuters, March 7, 2011

By 2015, China will be a fairer, greener society. Rising incomes will have boosted consumption and industry will have clambered up the technology ladder.

That's one way of reading Premier Wen Jiabao's annual "state of the nation" work report on Saturday to China's largely ceremonial parliament and an accompanying plan for 2011-2015.

"I was very impressed with the seriousness of the government to rebalance the economy by promoting consumption and changing the structure of industry," said Tomo Kinoshita, an economist with Nomura in Hong Kong.

But on a less generous interpretation, reading between the lines of what Wen did not say, the world's second-largest economy in 2015 will remain addicted to capital spending; the state will not have eased its iron grip on the financial system; and China's external surplus will still be a global bone of contention.

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CHINA (2011-15)

THOUGHTS ON CHINA’S 5-YEAR PLAN

Wen Jiabao has announced China's next five-year economic plan. It's positive sounding, but tough to implement.

Alistair Thornton

The Diplomat, March 6, 2011

In general, this is a positive looking plan. The targets and lofty rhetoric reflect – from our point of view - an accurate assessment of the state of the economy. Prefacing the targets, Premier Wen Jiabao reiterated his long-held belief that the economic structure isn’t ‘well-balanced, coordinated or sustainable.’ Broadly speaking, the targets seek to re-tool the economy, slowing things down slightly in order to enact necessary structural changes. Primarily, consumption needs to rise as a share of GDP. There’s an emphasis on shifting to a healthier type of economic growth, focusing on the quality of growth, rather than just the quantity. This is intended, as Wen put it so nicely, to not just grow the pie itself, but share it around more fairly. It’s also intended to take environmental concerns into consideration.

The first thing to note is that previous plans have pushed in similar directions, to little avail. They sailed past the growth target of 7.5 percent for the 11th Five-Year Plan, whilst President Hu Jintao's whole emphasis on a 'harmonious society' (that is, addressing widening inequalities) has come to little. So, in this respect, the Plan is useful in that it tells us the direction that the government wants to push, but it’s far from certain that this is where they will actually end up.

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ASIAN WOMEN

HOW ASIAN WOMEN SEE THE WORLD

Diksha Sahni

India RealTime, March 5, 2011

On Tuesday March 8 many around the world will be celebrating International Women’s Day.  New Delhi also joins in with the  seventh edition of the annual Asian Women’s Film Festival.

The festival, organized by the Indian unit of a non-governmental organization which works with women and media, officially starts in the city’s India International Center on Saturday, when screenings by documentary filmmakers from countries including Pakistan, India, Canada and the Philippines will take place.

The festival will showcase around 50 documentary films made by women. While filmmakers must be women of Asian origin, their work can be from anywhere in the world, according to the festival’s eligibility guidelines. After taking a break on Sunday, the festival resumes on Monday and lasts until Tuesday.

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CHINA’S ECONOMY AND THE WORLD

WHEN THE DRAGON CEASES TO ROAR

Benjarong Suwankiri and Naris Sathapholdeja

Bangkok Post, March 4, 2011

Chinese economic growth of 9.1% in 2009 was a source of optimism for a world mired in the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression. This alone was enough for emerging markets to start growing again, with China leading the pack. And the rest is history.

Will China remain important? Today, it is the world's second-largest economy. Its gross domestic product (GDP) is one-third that of the US, or two-thirds if you adjust for cost of living - what economists fancily call "purchasing power parity-adjusted". By any measure, that makes China a very large economy, but it remains poor compared with the Group of Three (G3) economies of the US. the EU and Japan.

With per capita GDP at US$4,000 - not very far behind Thailand - China is no match in the view of cynics for the $46,000 per capita GDP of the US. But when adjusted for purchasing power, the gap closes considerably, with both Chinese per capita GDP at $7,500 and that of the US about the same. In other words, it takes 6.1 Chinese to equal to one American. China has 1.3 billion people, the US has 307 million _ that's a factor of 4.2. Not there yet.

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“JASMINE” PROTESTS IN CHINA

SOMETHING FISHY WITH CHINA'S 'JASMINE' MOVEMENT

Mainichi Daily News, March 3, 2011

The Chinese characters for "ma" and "ri" in actress Mariko Okada's name mean "jasmine" when put together, and in China, the uprising that spread from Tunisia to Egypt and Libya is referred to as the "Molihua" (Jasmine) revolution.

The Jasmine revolution spread over the Internet, and it is not surprising that protests also occurred in China, which has the world's largest population of Internet users. It remains unclear where the calls for a "jasmine movement" originated.

The first round of "jasmine" protests in China occurred on Feb. 20, a Sunday. People in 18 cities including Beijing and Shanghai gathered in set places and protested against issues such as corruption and autocracy. A week later, a second round of protests was held, with the scope expanding to 27 cities. But something about the protests seemed strange: The places where people gathered weren't exactly revolutionary.

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CHINA (2006-10)

A REVIEW OF THE 11TH FIVE-YEAR PLAN

People’s Daily, March 2, 2011

This year marks the beginning of the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015). The blueprint is expected to be discussed at the annual session of the National People's Congress on Saturday.
China Daily takes a look back at the 11th Five-Year Plan (2006-2010) and how it was implemented.

Rapid economic growth

In 2010, China surpassed Japan as the world's second-largest economy with GDP reaching 39.8 trillion yuan ($6.1 trillion), a 69.9-percent increase from 2005 after adjusting for inflation.
The average annual growth rate from 2006 to 2010 was 11 percent, far exceeding the target of 7.5 percent set in 2006.

Per capita annual income also grew rapidly. In 2010, urban income reached 19,109 yuan, up 82.1 percent in five years, while rural income was 5,919 yuan, up 81.8 percent.

Employment and an aging population

The population now stands at 1.341 billion, and the number of people with jobs increased from 758 million in 2005 to 780 million at the end of 2009. Challenges lie ahead as the population ages: the number of people in the workforce will decline, and spending on welfare and healthcare will increase.

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CHINA (2011-16)

CHINA'S NEW FIVE YEAR PLAN: WHY IT MATTERS

Clayton Reeves

Seeking Alpha, March 1, 2011

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao recently revealed the numbers behind China’s twelfth five year plan. In its most recent incantation, the plan shifts from a target of 8% annual growth to a more reasonable 7%. The 7% number is focused on stimulating domestic consumption, raising the standard of living, increasing environmental awareness and shifting away from an export driven economy. Let’s take a look at some of the things Premier Wen said.

Quality of Growth

Premier Wen Jiabao focused on changing the culture of growth in China from purely growth for growth to a more sustainable structure that would yield benefits for China’s people. He said although growth is booming, he sees disparity between that growth and the impact on the common citizen. Wen said:

In some places, I have seen, urban construction is very fast, but as you walk along, you see shabby rural streets and housing, and some farmers are still hard pressed to pay schools the 100-yuan heating fees for their kids. Therefore, I tell local officials, wouldn't it be better if we construct fewer high buildings and spend the funds for expanding the urban scale on raising living standards?

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