CHINA AND LOW GROWTH

HOW WILL CHINA’S EXPANSION HANDLE LOWER-GROWTH REALITY?

He Fan

The Jakarta Globe, March 20, 2012

A newly released report by the World Bank and the Development Research Center, a prominent think tank in China, warned that by 2025 China’s economic growth rate would decline to an annual average of 5 percent — a sharp fall from the 10 percent average of the last 30 years.

In a widely cited article published in 2011, Liu Shijin, the DRC’s deputy director, also predicted that the average growth rate would fall to 6.7 percent for the period of China’s 13th Five-Year Plan (2016 to 2020).

The rapid expansion of China’s economy in the last three decades has incited varied responses: it puzzled the world for the first 10 years, dazzled it for another 10, and is now largely taken for granted. Many people today believe that only China can pull the global economy from recession, and many seem to be counting the days until China’s GDP surpasses that of the US.

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