JAPAN’S FISCAL STIMULUS

JAPAN TO CONSIDER FISCAL STEPS TO COUNTER HIT FROM TAX RISE

Mayumi Otsuma and Kyoko Shimodoi

Bloomberg, June 20, 2013

Japan’s government is ready to provide extra spending if a sales-tax increase next year damps economic growth, a senior finance ministry official said.

“We must take appropriate action to counter” any decline in economic growth after the tax increase planned for April, Yuzuru Takeuchi, 54, parliamentary secretary for finance and a lower house legislator, said in an interview today in Tokyo. The government will also create a panel to encourage companies to raise wages, he said.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is rolling out fiscal and monetary stimulus to help pull the economy out of a more than decade-long deflationary malaise. The government is grappling with supporting growth while trying to slow the increase in Japan’s debt burden, the developed world’s largest.

“If the government doesn’t announce a further fiscal package, we’re likely to see some payback” in growth from the boost in 2013 from government spending, said Masaaki Kanno, chief Japan economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Tokyo.

The economy may shrink an annualized 3.9 percent in the second quarter of 2014 after the sales tax is raised to 8 percent from its current 5 percent, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The tax will be further increased to 10 percent in 2015.

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JAPAN’S “THREE-ARROW” POLICY

JAPAN’S SHINZO ABE UNDERWHELMING PACKAGE OF ECONOMIC REFORMS

Editorial Board

The Washington Post, June 7, 2013

JAPAN HAS been in a state of economic stagnation for much of the past two decades. The United States would benefit if this important ally could reverse that trend, aiding not only Japan’s own well-being and national security but also the balance of power in Northeast Asia.

The good news is that there is broad consensus about what ails Japan, and a new prime minister, Shinzo Abe, has come into office determined to act. Mr. Abe has fired the first two “arrows” in his “three-arrow” policy, aiming them at fiscal and monetary policy with the goal of ending Japan’s chronic deflation. His government is spending heavily on infrastructure, and the Bank of Japan has embarked on a massive asset-buying program.

Aggressive as these policies are, enacting them was relatively simple, politically, relative to tackling the third source of Japan’s woes: a vast web of regulations, subsidies and trade barriers whose net effect has been to support inefficient sectors, and the voters who live off them, at the expense of growth and innovation. Japanese productivity has remained essentially flat for the past two decades, a dangerous state of affairs in a country with a shrinking labor force and a growing dependent elderly population.

The politically powerful agriculture sector illustrates how self-defeating Japanese policy can be. Economists Takeo Hoshi, now at Stanford University, and Anil K. Kashyap of the University of Chicago have calculated that Japan’s farms got $53 billion in subsidies in 2010, an amount equal to the total value they added to the economy. In other words, farming made zero net contribution to Japan’s national income.

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CURRENCY WARS AND THE YEN

AS YEN HITS 100 TO US$, GET READY FOR MORE CURRENCY WARS

Vivek Kaul

Firstpost, May 11, 2013

Ushinawareta Nijūnen, or the period of two lost decades for Japan (from 1990 to 2010), might finally be coming to an end. Or so it seems.

And Japan has to thank Abenomics unleashed by its current Prime Minister Shinzo Abe for it. Abe has more or less bullied the Bank of Japan, the Japanese central bank, to go on an unlimited money printing spree, until it manages to create an inflation of 2 percent.

Japanese money supply is set to double over a two-year period. And all this 'new' money that is being pumped into the financial system will chase an almost similar number of goods and services, and thus drive up their prices. Or so the hope is. The target is to create an inflation of 2 percent and get people spending money again. When prices are rising or are expected to rise, people tend to buy stuff, because they don't want to pay a higher price later (This, of course, is true to a certain level of inflation and doesn't hold in the Indian case where retail inflation is greater than 10 percent). As people go out and shop, it helps businesses and in turn the overall economy.

In an environment where prices are stagnant or falling, as has been the case with Japan for a while now, people tend to postpone purchases in the hope of getting a better deal. The situation where prices are falling is referred to as deflation.

In 2012, the average inflation in Japan was zero percent, which meant that prices neither rose nor fell. In fact, in each of the three years for the period between 2009 and 2011, prices fell on the whole. This has led people to postpone their consumption and hence had a severe impact on Japanese economic growth. To break this "deflationary trap", Shinzo Abe and the Bank of Japan have decided to go on an almost unlimited money printing spree.

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CURRENCY WARS IN ASIA

ABENOMICS AND CURRENCY WARS.WHAT ARE WE TO DO

Tan Sri Lin See-yan

The Star, May 4, 2013

ABENOMICS, the aggressive management blend of monetary and fiscal stimuli to reflate Japan's stagnant economy, according to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Consequently, yen weakened considerably notching 23 weeks of back-to-back falls against the US dollar, completing the longest losing streak in 24 years. The sell-off brought it within striking distance of 100 yen to US$1, a level not seen since 2009.

US dollar has since climbed 25%, and the pound 9%-10% against the yen since mid-April. Worries are that yen can move to within 110. This has led to a growing chorus of emerging nations (including China, Russia, Colombia and Thailand) expressing alarm over the prospect of “currency wars.” Indeed, many nations around the world are vying to keep their currencies “weak” as well, through “macro-prudential” means, including limited interventions. So much so the Moscow G-20 meeting in February had to re-affirm that economic stimulus policies should be aimed at lifting domestic growth and not target exchange rate.

The Asian Shadow Financial Regulatory Committee (of which I am a member) recommended at its April 18 meeting at Shanghai's Fudan University that (i) Asian economies particularly those in North-East Asia, should refrain from competitive devaluation and protectionist policies, which would have a negative impact on world trade flows; (ii) the Bank of Japan should be considerate, cautious and transparent in undertaking further quantitative easing, by not targeting a weak yen and taking into account the concern of others; and (iii) IMF and, in particular ADB need to closely monitor international financial flows and strengthen its surveillance framework for macroeconomic policies of nations so that it will be more effective in promoting global monetary stability.

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ABE AND THE CONSTITUTION’S AMENDMENT

JAPAN’S ABENOMICS HAUNTED BY GHOST OF GENERAL MACARTHUR

Isabel Reynolds and Takashi Hirokawa

Bloomberg, May 2, 2013

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s drive to revise Japan’s pacifist constitution for the first time risks alienating voters who support his economic agenda and dividing his coalition government before July elections.

Abe aims to make it easier to amend the constitution, a first step in plans to beef up the military at a time when Japan is mired in territorial disputes with China and South Korea. His Liberal Democratic Party is forecast to win the upper house race, potentially giving him the two-thirds majority in both chambers needed to alter the charter.

Overhauling a document imposed by U.S. General Douglas MacArthur’s occupation force after World War II has been a goal of LDP politicians, including Abe’s grandfather, since the party was founded in 1955. While polls show the public backs Abenomics, his strategy to resuscitate the world’s third-largest economy after more than a decade of deflation, a majority of voters don’t rate constitutional revision as a priority.

“The growth strategy can only be accomplished with sustained attention,” said Koichi Nakano, a political science professor at Sophia University in Tokyo. “It’s a monumental task in its own right. If he takes up more nationalistic causes and Abenomics is not looking good, this could lead to a loss of authority after the election.”

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ABE AND HISTORY

ABE-HISTORY: PREMIER AGAIN SEEMS SET ON STOKING CONTROVERSY AND IRE

Jeff Kingston

The Japan Times, April 28, 2013

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is no stranger to historical controversy. Back in 2001 he pressured national broadcaster NHK to revise a documentary about the judgment of an international people’s tribunal regarding the war responsibility of Emperor Hirohito(posthumously known as Emperor Showa). And in 2007 he riled Koreans with his remarks quibbling over the level of coercion used in recruiting so-called wartime comfort women on the day that Koreans commemorate the 1919 uprising against Japanese colonial rule.

As a member of the Association to Consider the Future Path for Japan and History Education founded in 1997, Abe wants to promote an exonerating narrative of Japan’s wartime past. But Abe II and his deft handlers understand just how risky it is to unilaterally revise history, and he is now relying on Education Minister Hakubun Shimomura and Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga to do the heavy lifting onairbrushing the past.

There is widespread expectation that if the Liberal Democratic Party which Abe heads wins the Upper House elections in July, thus gaining control of both houses, he will work to remove constitutional constraints on the military.

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ABE’S HISTORICAL REVISIONISM

SHINZO ABE’S INABILITY TO FACE HISTORY

Editorial Board

The Washington Post, April 27, 2013

FROM THE MOMENT last fall when Shinzo Abe reclaimed the office of Japanese prime minister that he had bungled away five years earlier, one question has stood out: Would he restrain his nationalist impulses — and especially his historical revisionism — to make progress for Japan?

Until this week, the answer to that question was looking positive. Mr. Abe has taken brave steps toward reforming Japan’s moribund economy. He defied powerful interest groups within his party, such as rice farmers, to join free-trade talks with the United States and other Pacific nations that have the potential to spur growth in Japan. He spoke in measured terms of his justifiable desire to increase defense spending.

This week he seemed willing to put all the progress at risk. Asked in parliament whether he would reconsider an official apology that Japan issued in 1995 for its colonization of Korea in the past century, Mr. Abe replied: “The definition of what constitutes aggression has yet to be established in academia or in the international community. Things that happened between nations will look differently depending on which side you view them from.”

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CHINA-JAPAN DISPUTES

ANOTHER TWIST IN THE CHINA-JAPAN ISLAND DISPUTE

The arrival of Chinese near disputed islands prompts a blunt response from Tokyo.

James R. Holmes

The Diplomat, April 25, 2013

Uncharacteristically blunt language issued forth from Tokyo on Tuesday, after the news broke that eight Chinese maritime-enforcement ships had entered the waters around the contested Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. While a Chinese presence in these waters has become commonplace in recent months, this was the largest flotilla to fly the PRC flag near the archipelago. The deployment reportedly came after Japanese nationalists ventured near the islands in small craft. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe reported instructing Japanese forces "to take resolute measures against attempts to enter our territorial waters and make a landing." If Chinese personnel landed on the islets, added Abe, "then of course we will forcibly expel them."

There are a few question marks to the encounter. First consider the Chinese side. Some news reporting attributed the Chinese action to Japanese officials' recent visits to the Yasukuni Shrine. Such visits are guaranteed to raise hackles not just in China but in South Korea. It stands to reason that there may have been some link between the two events. But correlation isn't causation. Beijing made no explicit connection between Yasukuni and the Senkakus. This week's maritime incursion, moreover, differed from previous Sino-Japanese encounters only in scale, not in kind. And China's leadership has vowed to maintain a regular if not standing presence in waters that lap against the archipelago.

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YASUKUNI SHRINE

JAPAN OFFICIALS’ WAR SHRINE VISITS MAY REFLECT SHIFT TOWARD PM ABE’S NATIONALIST AGENDA

Associated Press

The Washington Post, April 23, 2013

TOKYO — Visits by Cabinet ministers and lawmakers to a shrine honoring Japan’s war dead, including 14 World War II leaders convicted of atrocities, signal Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s determination to pursue a more nationalist agenda after months of focusing on the economy.

Nearly 170 Japanese lawmakers paid homage at Yasukuni Shrine on Tuesday. A day earlier, visits by three Cabinet ministers, said by the government to be unofficial, drew protests from neighbors South Korea and China over actions they view as failures to acknowledge Japan’s militaristic past.

China and South Korea — Japan’s No. 1 and No. 3 trading partners, respectively — bore the brunt of Tokyo’s pre-1945 militarist expansion in Asia and routinely criticize visits to the shrine. Almost seven decades after the war ended, it still overshadows relations.

Adding to the discord, Chinese surveillance vessels were patrolling Tuesday near a cluster of uninhabited islands in the East China Sea that are controlled by Japan but claimed by both countries.

China’s State Oceanic Administration said Tuesday that its maritime surveillance ships had chased away a group of Japanese ultra-nationalists who visited the area.

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NORTH KOREA AND JAPAN

JAPAN INCREASINGLY NERVOUS ABOUT NORTH KOREA NUKES

AP

The Economic Times, April 8, 2013

TOKYO: It's easy to write off North Korean threats to strike the United States with a nuclear-tipped missile as bluster: it has never demonstrated the capability to deploy a missile that could reach the Pacific island of Guam let alone the mainland U.S.

But what about Japan?

Though it remains a highly unlikely scenario, Japanese officials have long feared that if North Korea ever decides to play its nuclear card it has not only the means but several potential motives for launching an attack on Tokyo or major U.S. military installations on Japan's main island. And while a conventional missile attack is far more likely, Tokyo is taking North Korea's nuclear rhetoric seriously.

On Monday, amid reports North Korea is preparing a missile launch or another nuclear test, Japanese officials said they have stepped up measures to ensure the nation's safety. Japanese media reported over the weekend that the defense minister has put destroyers with missile interception systems on alert to shoot down any missile or missile debris that appears to be headed for Japanese territory.

``We are doing all we can to protect the safety of our nation,'' said chief Cabinet spokesman Yoshihide Suga, though he and defense ministry officials refused to confirm the reports about the naval alert, saying they do not want to ``show their cards'' to North Korea.

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NORTH KOREA, SOUTH KOREA AND JAPAN

COULD NORTH KOREA HIT ITS NEIGHBORS WITH NUKES?

The Indian Express, April 6, 2013

Washington: North Korea is widely recognised as being years away from perfecting the technology to back up its bold threats of a pre-emptive strike on the United States. But some nuclear experts say it might have the know-how to fire a nuclear-tipped missile at South Korea and Japan, which host U.S. military bases.

No one can tell with any certainty how much technological progress North Korea has made, aside from perhaps a few people close to its secretive leadership. And it is highly unlikely that Pyongyang would launch such an attack, because the retaliation would be devastating.

The North's third nuclear test on Feb. 12, which prompted the toughest U.N. Security Council sanctions yet against Pyongyang, is presumed to have advanced its ability to miniaturize a nuclear device. And experts say it's easier to design a nuclear warhead that works on a shorter-range missile than one for an intercontinental missile that could target the U.S.

The assessment of David Albright at the Institute for Science and International Security think tank is that North Korea has the capability to mount a warhead on its Nodong missile, which has a range of 800 miles (1,280 kilometers) and could hit South Korea and most of Japan. But he cautioned in his analysis, published after the latest nuclear test, that it is an uncertain estimate, and the warhead's reliability remains unclear.

Albright contends that the experience of Pakistan could serve as precedent. Pakistan bought the Nodong from North Korea after its first flight test in 1993, then adapted and produced it for its own use. Pakistan, which conducted its first nuclear test in 1998, is said to have taken less than 10 years to miniaturize a warhead before that test, Albright said.

North Korea also obtained technology from the trafficking network of A.Q. Khan, a disgraced pioneer of Pakistan's nuclear program, acquiring centrifuges for enriching uranium. According to the Congressional Research Service, Khan may also have supplied a Chinese-origin nuclear weapon design he provided to Libya and Iran, which could have helped the North in developing a warhead for a ballistic missile.

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JAPAN, THE US AND CHINA

NO FREE HAND GIVEN TO JAPANESE HAWK BY US

Ching Cheong

The China Post, March 3, 2013

BEIJING - Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has failed to get a blank check from his American ally to underwrite his hawkish policy over the disputed Senkaku (Diaoyu to the Chinese) islands.

At the joint press briefing during Abe's visit to Washington last week, U.S. President Barack Obama did not mention China or the disputed islands at all. What Japan wanted most from him — to openly reiterate that the islands fell within Japanese administration — was not delivered.

In fact, American reception of Abe was at best lukewarm. This is because mainstream views in the U.S. do not support Japanese claims over the islands.

For example, Nicholas Kristof of The New York Times wrote last September: “On balance, I find the evidence for Chinese sovereignty quite compelling. The most interesting evidence is emerging from old Japanese government documents and suggests that Japan in effect stole the islands from China in 1895 as booty of war.”

Even the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), a U.S. think tank critical of China, urged Abe to exercise restraint. On the eve of the PM's U.S. visit, AEI scholar Michael Auslin, in an open letter, urged him to undertake that “Japan will never fire the first shot, nor endanger civilian life.”

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JAPAN AND THE US

AMERICA AND THE RISING SUN: OBAMA, ABE JOIN FORCES TO JUMP-START TWO ECONOMIES

Jacey Fortin

International Business Times, February 23, 2013

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and U.S. President Barack Obama met for a bilateral summit at the White House on Friday, talking behind closed doors over lunch before addressing the media.

This meeting -- the first between the two leaders -- was a significant event for Obama given the administration’s so-called “pivot” to Asia, which seeks to strengthen partnerships in the region and curtail China’s growing hegemony there.

But it was even more important for Abe, who was just elected in December and whose vision for Japan marks a departure from administrations past. The conservative politician campaigned on promises of military strength and loose monetary policies meant to beat endemic deflation.

“As a result of our discussion, we were able to share our understanding on not just concrete policy but on the direction to which our alliance is headed. I think I can declare with confidence that the trust and the bond in our alliance is back,” Abe said at the press briefing that followed the talks.

The two leaders have much in common -- first and foremost are their ambitious plans to spur economic revitalizations after years of recession in their home countries. That made trade cooperation a key issue for both leaders as they laid a foundation for their new diplomatic partnership.

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CONFLICT IN THE EAST CHINA SEA

CHINESE BUOYS FOCUS OF LATEST DISPUTE OVER CONTESTED ISLANDS

Martin Fackler

The New York Times, February 22, 2013

TOKYO – Japan has asked the Chinese government to explain why Chinese ships have strategically placed several buoys in the East China Sea near a group of disputed islands, a Japanese government spokesman said Friday.

The spokesman, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, told reporters that ships from China’s State Oceanic Administration, which is similar to the coast guard, had placed the buoys last week in Chinese-controlled waters near the islands, known as the Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyu in Chinese. The uninhabited islands have been controlled by Japan for decades, but are claimed by China and also Taiwan.

Japanese media reported the buoys might be used to track Japanese submarines in waters around the uninhabited islands, where Japanese and Chinese ships have chased each other in recent months. If so, their placement could represent another step in an ominous escalation in the standoff, which began with coast guard and other non-military ships, but has recently begun to involve more heavily armed navy ships.

Tensions over the islands flared up in September, after the Japanese government announced that it would buy three of the five islands from their private owner, setting off violent street protests in China. The Chinese government responded by sending oceanic administration and other non-military ships into Japanese-claimed waters on almost a daily basis.

Earlier this month, tensions seemed to rise when Japan said that a Chinese navy frigate had briefly used a missile-directing radar to make a target of a Japanese military ship. China has denied doing that.

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NK: PEACE, ECONOMIC AND ENERGY AID

STEPHEN BOSWORTH SAY NK NUCLEAR ISSUE REQUIRES A COMPREHENSIVE APPROACH

Instead of narrow focus on denuclearization, former US diplomat says broader cooperation is needed among Washington, Beijing and Seoul

Park Hyun

The Hankyoreh, February 18, 2013

Stephen Bosworth, a former United States Special Representative for North Korea policy, said on Feb. 15 that the North Korean nuclear program should be addressed through a comprehensive approach instead of being treated as an isolated issue.

Bosworth’s comments came during a closed-door conference on North Korea policy held by Stanford University’s Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, headed by director Gi-wook Shin.

Bosworth also said he believed North Korea’s recent activities suggested that it was time for the US government to take the threat more seriously.

According to Bosworth, a comprehensive approach may include establishing a peace treaty on the Korean Peninsula to replace the armistice agreement, and conducting negotiations on energy and economic aid to North Korea.

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JAPAN: COLLECTIVE SELF-DEFENSE

WHAT IS ABE'S REAL MOTIVE FOR COLLECTIVE SELF-DEFENSE?

Editorial

The Asahi Shimbun, February 9, 2013

The administration of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has taken a first step toward allowing Japan to exercise its right to collective self-defense. At Abe's request, an advisory council of experts has begun to discuss the issue.

Abe says the move is aimed at strengthening Japan's security alliance with the United States.

In what way, then, does he want to change the bilateral alliance? Won't the change that he envisions set the stage for a gradual erosion of the pacifist principles of the postwar Constitution?

Abe should offer clear answers to these and other key questions at the outset of the policy debate on this issue.

If Japan were to exercise its right to collective self-defense, it would regard an attack on the United States, Japan’s ally, as an attack against itself and mobilize its Self-Defense Forces to fight against the attacker along with the United States.

In the postwar period, Japan has consistently held the position that its use of armed force must be limited to the minimum necessary for self-defense under the restrictions imposed by the war-renouncing Constitution.

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CHINA-JAPAN WARGAMES

CHINA DENIES DIRECTING RADAR AT JAPANESE MILITARY

Chris Buckley

The New York Times, February 8, 2013

HONG KONG - China on Friday denied directing a radar capable of aiding weapon strikes at a Japanese naval vessel and helicopter near disputed islands, instead accusing Japan of fanning tensions, in the latest exchange to lay bare festering discord between the two countries.

The Chinese Ministry of Defense’s account of the two incidents stood starkly at odds with one given on Tuesday by Japan’s Ministry of Defense, which said that on Jan. 30 a Chinese military vessel trained a radar used to help direct weapons on a Japanese naval destroyer near the islands in the East China Sea. Japan also said that a Chinese frigate directed the same kind of radar at one of its military helicopters on Jan. 19.

Because using such “fire-control” radar can precede an attack, the Japanese defense minister. Itsunori Onodera, said that a misstep “could have pushed things into a dangerous situation.”

China’s first substantial response to the allegations amounted to a wholesale denial – which only deepened the puzzle of what happened, and who made any of the alleged decisions to use the radar. Japan promptly rejected the statement.

When Chinese naval vessels encountered the helicopter and destroyer in the East China Sea, their radar had “maintained normal observational alertness, and there was no use of fire-control radar,” said a statement issued on the Chinese defense ministry’s Web site on Friday. The statement was first issued by state media late on Thursday Beijing time. It did not explain what was meant by “normal observational alertness.”

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TENSIONS OVER THE SENKAKU/DIAOYU ISLANDS

CHINA’S SENKAKUS OPERATIONS OVERSEEN BY PARTY TASK FORCE LED BY XI

Kenji Minemura

The Asahi Shimbun, February 4, 2013

BEIJING--China’s response to the Senkaku Islands dispute is now under the direct command and coordination of a top-level task force of the Communist Party of China, led by General Secretary Xi Jinping.

A source close to the Communist Party said the creation of the new task force, said to be modeled after the U.S. National Security Council, means that the dispute has become one of the most important issues for China along with reunification with Taiwan and others.

Tensions between Japan and China are mounting over the five uninhabited islands in the East China Sea.

Military sources told The Asahi Shimbun that the two countries scrambled fighter jets several times on Jan. 19, although no announcements were made publicly.

Two Jian-10 fighters took off from an air base outside Shanghai and followed a U.S. airborne warning and control aircraft, which carries a surveillance system for tracking other planes, north of the Senkaku Islands at a close distance, the sources said.

Two F-15 fighters of the Air Self-Defense Force then took off to counter the Chinese move, the sources said.

(...) [article here]

JAPAN’S FORECASTS

JAPAN FORECASTS 2.5PC GROWTH IN FISCAL 2013 ON STIMULUS, WEAKER YEN

JAPAN'S Cabinet approved an upbeat growth forecast today that could give the government some leeway in compiling a budget for the upcoming fiscal year in April.

Eleanor Warnock (DJN)

The Australian, January 28, 2013

The report estimates Japan will post 1 per cent real growth in the fiscal year ending in March and 2.5 per cent growth in the following fiscal year of 2013 and will be used to gauge tax revenue for a budget slated to be approved this week.

An optimistic growth forecast could allow for some elbow room in predicting government revenue and new bond issuance in the developed world's most indebted country. According to local media, ruling parties and the government approved a proposal for a 92.61 trillion yen budget ($975 billion) yesterday, with tax revenue expected to outpace total new government debt issuance by Y250 billion.

Economists say Japan's economy is coming out of its fifth technical recession--defined as two or more consecutive quarters of negative growth--in 15 years.

The report also showed the core consumer price index rising 0.5 per cent on year in fiscal 2013. That would be the first positive figure since fiscal 2008.

The 2.5 per cent growth figure for fiscal 2013 is slightly higher than numbers given by private economists who have upped growth forecasts on the back of yen weakness and government stimulus plans since the Liberal Democratic Party took power in December.

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JAPAN: COUNTERPRODUCTIVE DENIALS

JAPAN MUST FACE THE PAST

Jennifer Lind

The Washington Post, January 26, 2013

Jennifer Lind is an associate professor of government at Dartmouth College and a faculty associate at the Reischauer Institute for Japanese Studies at Harvard University. She is the author of “Sorry States: Apologies in International Politics.”

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has said he plans to revise — likely backtracking from — a 1993 statement that acknowledged government complicity in Japan’s World War II sex slave program. Around the world, advocates of truth-telling and atonement were outraged; at home, Abe’s conservative allies celebrated. Ironically, those conservatives should be among the most chagrined.

Japan’s conservatives increasingly worry about the danger brewing in East Asia from a rising China. But their denials and equivocations about the past undermine the political and military support that Japan will need to manage the troubles ahead.

Japanese conservatives value love of country as an important part of national strength. They argue that focusing on past misdeeds erodes domestic patriotism, so they prefer to emphasize positive aspects of Japan’s history. Conservative politicians and intellectuals have sought to blur distinctions between the World War II combatants; they argue that Japan, in its expansionism and human rights violations, behaved just as other countries did and so should not be singled out for criticism and demands for apologies.

But whether or not the “everyone was doing it” argument holds true, such denials are counterproductive: A country that has been a model global citizen for decades, should draw the clearest possible distinction between good behavior and bad. Instead, Japan’s denials keep its World War II-era crimes in the spotlight, obscuring not only the huge distinctions between the Japan of old and the Japan of today but also the distinctions between it and its contemporary rivals.

(...) [article here]