CHINA EMPIEZA A CONTAGIARSE

El gigante asiático ya nota el impacto de la ralentización económica mundial

José Reinoso

El País (Negocios), 9 de noviembre de 2008

Cuando el pasado septiembre estalló la tormenta financiera mundial, pareció que China atravesaría casi inmune el temporal, gracias a sus cuantiosas reservas de divisas (casi dos billones de dólares) y un sistema financiero cerrado. Pero, a medida que la crisis se profundiza, los efectos se están dejando notar sobre la cuarta economía del planeta, cada vez más interconectada con el resto del mundo.

Tras cinco años de crecimiento anual de dos dígitos, Pekín prevé que el PIB (producto interior bruto) aumente en 2008 a menor ritmo -un 9,8%-, mientras que los bancos de negocios extranjeros sitúan el porcentaje para el año que viene por debajo del 8%. Una cifra envidiable para otros países, pero peligrosa para China, ya que se acerca al mínimo del 7% que el Gobierno considera que debe crecer el país para crear suficiente empleo y asegurar la estabilidad social.

El primer ministro, Wen Jiabao, lo ha advertido sin tapujos. "Este año será el peor de los últimos tiempos para nuestro desarrollo económico", ha afirmado Wen en un artículo publicado el pasado fin de semana en Qiushi (buscando la verdad), una revista del Comité Central del Partido Comunista Chino. "La crisis financiera global y el descenso económico están empeorando. La presión inflacionista sigue siendo fuerte, mientras que los precios del petróleo, a pesar de algunas correcciones, continúan altos. Todos estos factores negativos han afectado y continuarán afectando a China".

La prueba ha venido con los datos del tercer trimestre, publicados el mes pasado, que mostraron una desaceleración continuada de la economía: creció un 9%, frente a un 10,1% en el segundo trimestre y un 10,6% el primero. El superávit comercial, aunque alcanzó 180.900 millones de dólares hasta septiembre, fue un 2,6% inferior al del año pasado por las mismas fechas, debido a la ralentización de las exportaciones.

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CHINA'S ECONOMIC GROWTH MAY SLUMP AS SPENDING COMES TOO LATE

Paul Panckhurst and Li Yanping

Bloomberg, November 8, 2008

China's economy may expand at the slowest pace in nearly two decades next year as demand for exports slumps in the U.S. and Europe and government spending fails to bridge the gap.

Gross domestic product may advance 7.5 percent or less, the weakest since 1990, according to estimates by Credit Suisse AG, UBS AG and Deutsche Bank AG. Royal Bank of Scotland Plc predicts the economy will grow 8 percent next year, while 5 percent “can't be ruled out.”

China hasn't yet ramped up spending on railways, roads, and low-cost housing by enough to stop a slowing economy from cooling more, economists said. At stake is the contribution to global growth -- 27 percent last year -- that Premier Wen Jiabao says is the nation's way of helping the world through the financial crisis.

“The government's fiscal stimulus plan may not come in time to avert a deeper economic slowdown,” said Ha Jiming, chief economist at China International Capital Corp in Beijing. Growth may be 7.3 percent next year, he said.

Indicators from auto sales to power consumption and export orders are pointing down and a slump in the property market is also threatening growth.

“I'm getting pretty worried,” said Paul Cavey, an economist at Macquarie Securities Ltd. in Hong Kong. “It really looks like things are slowing down quite sharply and there's nothing in the works that can turn it around in the next six months or so.”

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IMF LOWERS INDIA GROWTH PROJECTION FOR 2009 TO 6.3%

The Times of India, November 7, 2008

India's growth is likely to slow down to 6.3% in 2009 with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasting growth contraction in advanced economies and an appreciably slower growth in emerging economies.

The latest IMF forecast for world economic growth, released ahead of next week's G20 summit here on global financial crisis has cut world growth by 0.75 percentage point to 2.2% with output in advanced economies forecast to contract on a full-year basis for the first time since World War II.

In emerging economies, growth is projected to slow appreciably but still reach 5% in 2009, the IMF said in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) published on Thursday, updating the projections in the October WEO.

In the case of India, the growth projection for 2008 has been lowered to 7.8%, 0.1 percentage points less than the October projection with a further slowdown to 6.3% in 2009, 0.6 percentage points down from October.

As the IMF sharply revised its growth projections downward, saying that "global activity is slowing quickly", it urged countries to stimulate their economies in the face of a bigger-than-expected slowdown in the global economy triggered by the recent financial turmoil.

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ANALYSTS SAY CHINA-US TIES TO REMAIN SMOOTH UNDER OBAMA PRESIDENCY

Channel News Asia, November 6, 2008

BEIJING: Chinese analysts said the administration of Barack Obama is unlikely to undertake major changes to US-China relations. But the newly-elected president is expected to place more emphasis on trade and currency issues, a traditional source of friction between US and China.

The historic moment for the US was also the time for China to figure out the most pivotal person they'd have to work with in the next four years. Chinese analysts believe that Obama appears to be a proponent of a fairer trading system. He believes that China's unfair advantage in wages and labour standards had taken jobs away from Americans and contributed to the US deficit. Therefore, higher labour standards, environmental protection and product safety are likely to top the newly-elected president's China agenda.

But given the ongoing global financial crisis, Mr Obama is also likely to seek Beijing's co-operation. He has also indicated the importance of China in helping to resolve the Iranian and North Korean nuclear situations.

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ASIA CELEBRATES OBAMA'S HISTORIC WIN

AFP, November 5, 2008

Champagne corks popped across Asia as former schoolmates in Indonesia, the Japanese town of Obama and thousands of American expats Wednesday celebrated Barack Obama's historic election as US president.

Bars were packed in cities from Beijing to Sydney as election fever gripped the region amid the Democratic candidate's win over Republican John McCain.

Former classmates of the new president-elect reacted with pride as the chubby little boy they knew as Barry sealed the win.

"It's just amazing, I mean we're so proud of him," said Dewi Asmara Oetojo, a lawmaker in Indonesia's parliament who was a school friend of Obama in the 1960s.

The champagne also flowed in the Philippines, where a group of Democrats celebrated Obama's victory victory in a modest home in upmarket Manila.

"It was a blow-out. I can't believe how happy I am," said Bill Fischelis of Boston as he handed out champagne in plastic cups and patted people on the back.

"Americans abroad say, Obama! Obama!," the group chanted.

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THE WORLD TURNED UPSIDE DOWN. THE CENTRE WON’T HOLD ANY MORE

Philip S Golub

Le Monde Diplomatique, November 4, 2008

The West dominated world trade and power for two centuries, disrupting the pre-1800 more balanced international distribution of wealth and power. Now, the global balance is shifting to the East, and to primary producers of commodities worldwide

“The rise of China,” writes Professor Angang Hu of Tsinghua University, “resembles that of the United States a century ago (1870-1913). In both cases one sees a strong rate of growth and a higher contribution to the increase in global GDP”. As with the US, this rise “will not only transform China itself, but will change the face of the entire world.”

There are indeed some striking similarities: the influx of foreign investment greatly aided both the economic and territorial expansion of the US in the first half of the 19th century, and the intensive industrialisation that took place after the Civil War (1860-65). Successive waves of investment played a vital role in capital formation, extending the transport infrastructure, in colonising and developing territories, and the creation of the integrated internal market. Without these transnational inflows, primarily, but not exclusively, from Britain, the US would not have developed and risen with such speed and vigour.

There is a paradox here. Capitalism is by its nature internationalist, transcending the boundaries of the nation state. At the same time, by investing in new territories, some more than others, it ends up creating powerful states, even hegemonies. The gradual integration of emerging regions into the global economy at the end of the 20th century differs fundamentally from the coercive integration that caused the great North-South divide and the lasting inequalities of the modern global economic system.

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CHINA ENVOY IN TAIWAN SAYS TALKS CRUCIAL

AP / Debby Wu

Time, November 3, 2008

The highest-ranking Chinese official to visit Taiwan since the two sides split in 1949 arrived Monday for economic talks that he says are crucial for building trust between the longtime rivals. The five-day visit by Chen Yunlin is seen as a direct result of Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou's efforts since taking office in May to improve ties across the Taiwan Strait and end decades of political rivalry.

Pro-independence activists planned protests during the visit. They accuse China of using business deals to buy support for Taiwan's unification with Beijing, which still claims the self-ruled island as part of its territory and has threatened to use force to counter any moves toward formal independence.

A black limousine escorted by police took Chen from the airport to the landmark Grand Hotel, where he spoke briefly in the lobby and urged both sides to treasure their recent warming of ties. "I am bringing the goodwill wishes to Taiwan's 23 million compatriots from the mainland's 1.3 billion people," he said. "This visit has not come easily. Only through talks can we build trust and only through cooperation can we create a win-win economic situation."

Chen, who heads the mainland's Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait, is to hold talks with his Taiwanese counterpart Chiang Pin-kung on cementing closer economic ties, especially transport links.

(...) [artículo aquí]