ASIA 2050

WHY A RISING ASIA MAY NOT BE A CHANGED ASIA

Maria Monica Wihardja

The Jakarta Post, January 25, 2011

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) along with Indonesian ministries including the Trade Ministry and the National Development Planning Ministry, held a symposium on “Asia's Development Agenda in Regional and International Forums” on Jan. 18, 2011, and a consultation meeting on “Asia 2050” on Jan. 19, 2011.

These themes are timely since Asia still faces developmental challenges despite its growth miracles, while Asia's stake in the global economic recovery is high with the ADB projecting Asia's global economic share to be 61 percent by 2050.

Asia's success is not pre-ordained, said Shigeo Katsu, a senior associate of the Centennial Group, at the Asia 2050 meeting. He proposed three possible scenarios for Asia in 2050.

First is the benchmark case of “converging Asia” in which production chains and networks and total factor productivities, especially in China and India, continue on their current tracks. Second is the “non-converging Asia” in which Asian countries, especially India and China, are trapped as middle-income countries with poor institutions and governance as well as growing inequalities and urbanization buzz. Third is the “prosperous Asia”. 

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