ABE’S SEVEN MONTHS

ABE SET FOR JAPAN VICTORY FACES 7-MONTH WINDOW TO KEEP HOLD

Isabel Reynolds and Takashi Hirokawa

Bloomberg, December 14, 2012

Shinzo Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party is on the verge of reclaiming power in Japan, giving him seven months to convince voters he can revive the economy before another round of elections in July.

The LDP is forecast to crush Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda’s Democratic Party of Japan in the Dec. 16 election for the lower house of parliament. A victory would give Abe a second chance to lead the country five years after he quit his first term for health reasons. No premier has stayed in office for more than 15 months since.

Abe will inherit a country in recession, a split parliament, and an electorate still reeling from the 2011 earthquake and nuclear crisis. With elections for the upper house looming in July, his plans for aggressive monetary easing and fiscal stimulus need to produce results or he may not last any longer than his five predecessors.

“If he fails on the economy, there’s no doubt he will face a drubbing in the July upper house election and be forced to step down,” said independent economic analyst Tsukasa Jonen.“The real test is next year.”

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