CHINA: IMPORTED SOFT LANDING IN SIGHT
Morgan Stanley, April 17, 2008
Denise Yam, Qing Wang & Katherine Tai Hong Kong
GDP growth moderated on weaker exports in 1Q08: China’s 1Q08 economic report offered yet more solid evidence of an ‘imported soft landing’ that we had envisaged for the economy. Real GDP growth slowed to 10.6%Y, from the revised 11.9% pace in 2007 (+11.2% in 4Q07, before upward revision), on the back of tamer growth in exports, especially those to the US. Though export growth appears to have maintained a robust pace, up 21.4%Y in US dollar terms in 1Q08 versus +22.1% in 4Q07, the slowdown is much more pronounced when we assess export growth in local currency terms (and this is indeed the relevant assessment as far as GDP is concerned), which dwindled to just 12%Y in 1Q08 − the slowest pace since 1Q02. The trade surplus actually shrank by 11%Y in 1Q08 to US$41.4 billion, contributing negatively to overall GDP growth for the first time since 4Q05, by around 0.6 ppts according to our estimates (+0.3 ppts in 4Q07).
(...) [artículo aquí]
GDP growth moderated on weaker exports in 1Q08: China’s 1Q08 economic report offered yet more solid evidence of an ‘imported soft landing’ that we had envisaged for the economy. Real GDP growth slowed to 10.6%Y, from the revised 11.9% pace in 2007 (+11.2% in 4Q07, before upward revision), on the back of tamer growth in exports, especially those to the US. Though export growth appears to have maintained a robust pace, up 21.4%Y in US dollar terms in 1Q08 versus +22.1% in 4Q07, the slowdown is much more pronounced when we assess export growth in local currency terms (and this is indeed the relevant assessment as far as GDP is concerned), which dwindled to just 12%Y in 1Q08 − the slowest pace since 1Q02. The trade surplus actually shrank by 11%Y in 1Q08 to US$41.4 billion, contributing negatively to overall GDP growth for the first time since 4Q05, by around 0.6 ppts according to our estimates (+0.3 ppts in 4Q07).
(...) [artículo aquí]
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