PYONGYANG ISSUES A CALL FOR ARMS

Donald Kirk

Asia Times, December 19, 2009

WASHINGTON - The more things change, the more they stay the same. The great bargaining game to persuade North Korea's leader Kim Jong-il to puh-leeze be so kind, Dear One, as to send one of your minions over to the party in Beijing is now in full swing.

As tensions and expectations arise, the sense in some quarters here is what a great triumph it would be if only North Korea would be so kind, so open-minded and good-hearted as to rejoin the six-party talks on its nukes that it's been boycotting for the past year.

United States envoy Stephen Bosworth seems to be in charge of pressing the invitation on the North Koreans. Back from Pyongyang after holding forth at press conferences in the capitals of the other invitees, he's counseling "great patience".

While waiting for North Korea to bestow the honor of its company on host China and the rest of the guests, the North's new conditions are - despite Bosworth's reticence - quite rapidly becoming apparent. It was up to South Korea's Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan to reveal that North Korea had asked during Bosworth's mission for revocation of the sanctions imposed after its missile test of April 5, claiming that the long-range Taepodong-2 was launched to put a satellite into orbit. We can assume that North Korea is also insisting on revocation of the strengthened sanctions imposed after its nuclear test of May 25.

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HINDI-CHINI CAMARADERIE AT COPENHAGEN

Pallavi Aiyar

Business Standard, December 18, 2009

It has been a prickly year for China-India ties with the Arunachal Pradesh boundary dispute poisoning bilateral rhetoric. In Copenhagen, Hindi-Chini Bhai Bhai is back in vogue with the two sides holding meetings up to six times a day, according to Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh.

India and China are both part of the BASIC (Brazil, South Africa, India and China) group of countries that have decided to coordinate their negotiating stance at the UN climate talks. Interestingly, it is the Chinese who have clearly taken the lead of this group, calling for meetings and constantly updating its members of developments.

For Ramesh, even in the event of a failure of the talks to produce any substantial outcome, the one takeaway from Copenhagen is a reinvigorated India-China dynamics with lasting implications going ahead. “BASIC is a reality now. And, India and China in particular have cooperated and collaborated each word at every step,” said Ramesh on Thursday.

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HOW PARTNERING WITH THE U.S. COULD STRENGTHEN PAKISTAN'S SOVEREIGNTY

David Ignatius

The Washington Post, December 17, 2009

ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN The United States and Pakistan, always prone to bickering, need a big idea to unite and sustain them through the testing battle in Afghanistan. So here's a strategic concept I've been trying out with officials in both countries: By partnering with America, Pakistan can gain sovereignty over all its tribal territory for the first time in its history -- and thereby finally complete the task of building its own nation.

This is a classic example of what strategists call a "positive sum" game, where, by working together, Washington and Islamabad could gain benefits that they would not achieve alone. But instead of cooperating, they have been trading resentful messages over the past month in which the United States requested Pakistan's help in closing Taliban havens and Pakistan responded, in effect, "Don't tell us what to do."

Here's the cold, hard truth: U.S. success in Afghanistan depends on Pakistan gaining sovereignty over the tribal belt. If the insurgents can continue to maintain their havens in North Waziristan and other tribal areas, then President Obama's surge of troops in Afghanistan will fail. It's that simple.

The Obama administration wants Pakistan to take decisive action. That's why national security adviser Jim Jones visited here last month. And it's why Centcom Commander Gen. David Petraeus and Joint Chiefs Chairman Adm. Mike Mullen visited this week. But they've encountered Pakistani skepticism and suspicion. "The narrative is about mistrust and betrayal," says a U.S. Embassy official here.

The Americans should be knocking on an open door. For a second cold, hard fact is that Pakistan will not be a confident and fully successful modern state until it has extended its writ to the lawless tribal regions. Lacking that control, the Pakistanis fear that their national fabric could rip along its seams.

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STRATEGIC ASIA: REGION MUST FOLLOW EUROPE’S LEAD DOWN THE ROCKY ROAD TO UNION

Ashish Mishra

Jakarta Globe, December 16, 2009

Few people would have predicted that the establishment of the European Common Market would signal the arrival of a new dawn for Europe.

Half a century after signing the European Economic Community Treaty, a fully ratified Treaty of Lisbon came into force on Dec. 1. If Asia were to follow a similar path, it would mean it will be 2060 before Asia appoints a single president, selects a high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, brings in a legally binding charter of fundamental rights, introduces qualified majority voting, or decides to replace literary references to the term “community” with the more politically ascendant “union.”

It has taken over 50 years of deal-busting, concession wrangling, regulation building diplomacy for the European Union to finally come to its senses and set itself on a trajectory that enables its global neighbors, partners and antagonists to start taking Europe seriously. Maybe the continent’s historical break from the internecine wars of its past has truly arrived. The timing is rather interesting. The Asian century is about to enter its second triumphal decade just as the European colonial era has ended.

The Lisbon Treaty supposedly enacts a set of fundamental values such as respect for human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, the rule of law and respect for human rights. This includes acknowledging the rights of persons to belong to minorities. Article 2 goes further, stating, “these values are common to the Member States in a society in which pluralism, non-discrimination, tolerance, justice, solidarity and equality between women and men prevail.”

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COURTSHIP AND CENSURE IN US'S CHINA POLICY

Benjamin A Shobert

Asia Times, December 15, 2009

To turn a phrase that is often used by US policymakers about China, it seems that with respect to the question of how to best invest China's newfound savings, the US could have done a better job as the "responsible stakeholder". It was the choice of the US government to design public policy in such a way that new home ownership programs could be supported with low interest rates, just as it was the choice of consumers to view inexpensive capital as a right, not a privilege, and one that could go away if not used properly.

In both cases - the government and consumers - other options for using this pool of Chinese capital existed. Inexpensive capital could have fostered much-needed investments in infrastructure and education. Testifying to the USCC, Robert Skidelsky, an economist, stated, "It is one thing to borrow from abroad for investment, a different matter to borrow for consumption, since this does not create assets which can service the debt."

The 2009 USCC report does attempt to represent both sides to this question, but the overarching storyline that predominates is that, at a minimum, China has some blame in the US's economic situation and that, at worst, its policies were contributing causes to the US's fall. This is very troubling as the report serves to educate many in congress about the role of China's policies and practices within the US. To the extent the report distracts American politicians from a single-minded focus on what the US can control, and what it must do differently, it is unlikely to create meaningful change or have a lasting impact.

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CHINA BETS BIG ON PIPELINES

Guo Qiang

Global Times, December 14, 2009

President Hu Jintao is expected today to announce the opening of a massive natural gas pipeline through Central Asia that will help curb supply shortages.

The 1,833-kilometer line connects Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. One of the two sections of the pipeline has been completed, and the other section will be operational next year.

"With an annual expanded transmission capacity of up to 40 billion cubic meters of gas from Turkmenistan, the route will fill the natural-gas gap," Zhang Yao, director of the Russia and Central Asia Research Center at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, told the Global Times.

Hu's announcement is set to come on his last stop on a tour through Central Asia that he started Saturday in Kazakhstan and ends today after two days in Turkmenistan.

With a natural-gas shortage hanging over China, the China- Central Asia gas pipeline will help meet China's surging demand and reflects multilateral interest in regional cooperation, experts said.

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TO BEAT AL QAEDA, LOOK TO THE EAST

Scott Atran

The New York Times, December 13, 2009

In a testimony last week before Congress, the American ambassador to Afghanistan, Karl Eikenberry, insisted that President Obama’s revised war strategy will “build support for the Afghan government,” while Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the top American commander there, vowed that it will “absolutely” succeed in disrupting and degrading the Taliban.

Confidence is important, but we also have to recognize that the decision to commit 30,000 more troops to a counterinsurgency effort against a good segment of the Afghan population, with the focus on converting a deeply unpopular and corrupt regime into a unified, centralized state for the first time in that country’s history, is far from a slam dunk. In the worst case, the surge may push General McChrystal’s “core goal of defeating Al Qaeda” further away.

Al Qaeda is already on the ropes globally, with ever-dwindling financial and popular support, and a drastically diminished ability to work with other extremists worldwide, much less command them in major operations. Its lethal agents are being systematically hunted down, while those Muslims whose souls it seeks to save are increasingly revolted by its methods.

Unfortunately, this weakening viral movement may have a new lease on life in Afghanistan and Pakistan because we are pushing the Taliban into its arms. By overestimating the threat from Al Qaeda in Afghanistan, we are making it a greater threat to Pakistan and the world. Afghanistan and the tribal areas of Pakistan are unlike Iraq, the ancient birthplace of central government, or 1960s Vietnam, where a strong state was backing the Communist insurgents. Afghanistan and Pakistan must be dealt with on their own terms.

We’re winning against Al Qaeda and its kin in places where antiterrorism efforts are local and built on an understanding that the ties binding terrorist networks today are more cultural and familial than political. Consider recent events in Southeast Asia.

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