Monday 31 March 2008


THE BATON PASSES TO ASIA

Roger Cohen

International Herald Tribune, March 30, 2008

It's the end of the era of the white man.

I know your head is spinning. The world can feel like one of those split-screen TVs with images of a suicide bombing in Baghdad flashing, and the latest awful market news coursing along the bottom, and an ad for some stool-loosening wonder drug squeezed into a corner.

[texto aquí]

Sunday 30 March 2008


CHINA'S NEW NATIONAL ENERGY COMMISSION AND ENERGY POLICY

Jianjun Tu

China Brief, March 28, 2008

The long-anticipated plan for Beijing to undertake major structural reforms to the energy sector by merging a number of central-level ministries, commissions and departments to form a so-called energy “super-ministry" or "super-commission" passed, albeit with some tweaks to satisfy the powerful vested interests that dominate the sector (China Brief, March 14). The conclusion of the 11th National People's Congress revealed that, however much needed in Zhongnanhai, government consolidation and reform, will be a drawn out process especially for the energy sector. For instance, the newly created National Energy Commission lacks jurisdiction over the three state oil and gas monopolies and other government-controlled energy and electricity conglomerates (China Brief, March 14). Nevertheless, Beijing's efforts signal a step in the right direction and Zhang Guobao, the newly appointed director of the National Energy Bureau, will have to implement the policies set forth by Beijing in its white paper on national energy strategy.

[artículo aquí]

Saturday 22 March 2008


INDIA'S INDUSTRIAL TECH REVOLUTION

India is about to enter a technology golden age as an exploding industrial sector steps up IT investment to sustain global competitiveness

Navi Radjou

Business Week, March 20, 2008

The launch of the $2,500 Nano car by the Tata Group (TTM) earlier this year marks a turning point in India's economic history and opens a new chapter for its tech market. This momentous event showcased India, already crowned "the back office of the world," as the emerging "factory of the world," a title thus far monopolized by China.

[texto aquí]

Friday 21 March 2008


SHAPING CHINA’S GLOBAL CHOICES THROUGH DIPLOMACY

Thomas J. Christensen, Deputy Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs

Statement Before the U.S. – China Economic and Security Review Commission
Washington, DC
March 18, 2008

Vice Chairman Bartholomew, Commissioner Blumenthal, thank you for inviting me again to discuss with you the state of our relationship with the People’s Republic of China.

The topic of this hearing is very timely. There is little doubt that China’s regional and global influence is rising rapidly. My colleague David Sedney will discuss the military policies underpinning China’s growing influence. I would like to speak about how United States policy has responded to the growing influence that has flowed from China’s expanding diplomatic and economic engagement in the East Asia region and around the world.

[texto aquí]

HEARING ON CHINA'S EXPANDING GLOBAL INFLUENCE: FOREIGN POLICY GOALS, PRACTICES, AND TOOLS

US-China Economic and Security Review Commission

March 18, 2008

Opening Statement of Chairman Larry Wortzel

Good morning and welcome to the third hearing of the U.S.-China Commission’s 2008 reporting cycle. Today, the Commission will examine the impact of China’s expanding global influence and activities on U.S. economic and security interests. Our purpose is to collect information concerning the strategies and intentions of China’s foreign policy and the tools used to implement that policy.

This hearing will look at China’s diplomacy by addressing three main categories of diplomatic “tools”: economic and trade, military and security, and diplomatic and political. The testimony from this hearing hopefully will provide the Commission with an understanding of the trends of China’s diplomatic activities in regions around the world, and what diplomatic tools the United States can use to ensure that its global interests are protected.

To help us understand these issues, we will be joined by a number of expert witnesses from the Government, academia, and the private sector. The Commission’s Vice Chairman, Carolyn Bartholomew, and Commissioner Dan Blumenthal are serving as the co-chairs for today’s hearing and each has opening remarks. Once again, I welcome all of you to this hearing, and I now turn the proceedings over to Vice Chairman Bartholomew.

[Web aquí]

Thursday 20 March 2008


WHY ASIA CAN'T IMITATE FED'S INFLATION AMNESIA: ANDY MUKHERJEE

Bloomberg, March 20, 2008


March 20 (Bloomberg) -- The much-anticipated U.S. recession, if and when it does arrive, will undoubtedly extract a price from economies in the Asia-Pacific. That doesn't mean the U.S. Federal Reserve's efforts at mitigating the slowdown are going to be any less expensive for the region.

The source of that economic cost is inflation -- both the part that's already realized because of sky-high commodity prices and the part that's expected from the current round of U.S. monetary expansion. Actually, even the elevated prices of minerals, metals and food may be less a result of explosive world demand, led by China and India (which is nowadays the standard explanation proffered by many economists) and have more to do with cheap money, as Harvard University Professor Jeffrey Frankel has recently argued.


[Resto del texto aquí]

COULD JAPAN SHRUG OFF THE DOLLAR'S DIVE

Business Week, March 19, 2008

The yen's surge hurts export-driven growth. But trade with China, slashed commodity costs, and resurgent consumer spending may ease Japan's pain.

[texto aquí]

CHINA TO OVERTAKE US ECONOMY IN 2025; INDIA TO BE 90 PER CENT OF IT BY 2050: PWC

March 8, 2008
domain-b.com

New Delhi: According to predictions by a PricewaterhouseCoopers (PWC) report, the size of India's economy would swell to 90 per cent of that of the US by 2050, while China would be even larger than the US economy, having overtaken it as the largest economy in the world in around 2025. The sale of China's economy would have most probably increased to 1.3 times of the US economy by 2050.

[Resto del artículo aquí]

[El informe de PWC está aquí]

CHINA: REPORT ON THE WORK OF THE GOVERNMENT

Wen Jiabao
Premier of the State Council

Delivered at the First Session of the Eleventh National People's Congress on March 5, 2008

Fellow Deputies,

On behalf of the State Council, I would now like to deliver to you a report on the work of the government over the past five years and on the arrangements for its work this year for your deliberation and approval and also for comments and suggestions from the members of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC).

[Texto aquí]

CHINA AND INDIA WHISPER NO MORE
Coming to the rescue of the Western economy

Jean-Pierre Lehmann and Josef Mueller* (January 2008)
IMD

Information overload or not, China and India are here to stay as economic powerhouses. It’s no longer a question of “Will China and India drive the global economy?” The fact is, they are already doing so. Never before has the world economy been dependent on developing economies. The pattern has always been that the rich countries are the global economic locomotives; China and India, while very powerful, nevertheless also remain, on a per capita basis, poor. We look briefly at the implications, must-dos and don’ts. Be ready. They’re pumping up the volume.

[Texto aquí]

Wednesday 19 March 2008


MANAGING RECENT HOT MONEY INFLOWS IN ASIA

Robert McCauley

ADBI Discussion Paper, No. 99, March 2008.

This paper surveys the nature of capital inflows into Asia since the peak of the US dollar in the first quarter of 2002 and the policy responses to them. Portfolio equity flows have become more volatile and more responsive to global equity market developments. Inflows into local bond markets have become important, although they are often immeasurable, virtual investments through derivative instruments. In the market that shows the highest level of direct non-resident holdings, namely that of Indonesia, these seem quite sensitive to global equity volatility. The most important qualitative change over this period involved bank flows. In particular, foreign bank flows have returned to net inflows after five years of pay-down after the 1997-98 financial crisis. Carry trades, although difficult to measure, appear to have become important, with notable growth in transactions in which a long position in one regional currency is taken against a short position in another one. Carry trades also show great sensitivity to global equity volatility.

In the face of such increasingly volatile capital inflows, the authorities in the region have adopted both measures to encourage outflows and to discourage inflows. Outside of Korea, measures to encourage outflows have met with limited response owing to expectations of further strength in the domestic currency and, until recently, buoyant domestic equity markets. Some of the measures to discourage inflows have taken the form of making previous measures to discourage outflows more symmetric, while others have taken the form of reinstating much reduced or eliminated restrictions, while other have taken the form of new adaptations. These limits on capital inflows can be quite effective, but they set back the development of financial markets and clash with ambitions for internationalized currencies in the region.

[texto aquí]

ASIA'S ACHILLES HEEL

David G. Victor

Newsweek, February 28, 2008

As China and India lose control of their economies, they are failing to provide reliable power to their citizens. How will they manage to curb carbon emissions?

[Texto aquí]
CHINA’S AND INDIA’S ROLES IN GLOBAL TRADE AND FINANCE: TWIN TITANS FOR THE NEW MILLENNIUM?

Matthieu Bussière and Arnaud Mehl

ECB Occasional Paper Series, No. 80, January 2008

This paper analyses the integration of China and India into the global economy. To this end, it presents estimates from a gravity model to gauge the overall degree of their trade intensity and the depth of their bilateral trade linkages, as well as selected measures of revealed comparative advantage and economic distance. The paper also reviews the key characteristics of the two countries’ domestic economies that are relevant to their global integration and analyses their fi nancial linkages with the rest of the world. Four main fi ndings stand out. First, considering trade in goods, the overall degree of China’s trade intensity is higher than fundamentals would suggest, whereas the converse is true for India. Second, Chinese goods exports seem to compete increasingly with those of mature economies, while Indian exports remain more low-tech. Third, China’s exports of services tend to complement its exports of goods, while India’s exports are growing only in deregulated sectors, such as IT-related services. Last, China’s and India’s roles in the global financial system are still relatively limited and often complementary to their roles in global trade.

[Texto aquí, PDF, 1.104K]
CHINE ET INDE DANS LE COMMERCE INTERNATIONAL, LES NOUVEAUX MENEURS DE JEU

Françoise Lemoine & Deniz Ünal-Kesenci

La Lettre du CEPII, nº 272, novembre 2007

Après une longue éclipse, la Chine et l’Inde font un retour sur la scène économique mondiale. Leur percée dans les échanges internationaux témoigne depuis une dizaine d’années de leur maîtrise des activités liées à la révolution numérique. Leur montée en puissance fait sentir ses effets sur l’offre et sur la demande mondiale de biens et de services. Chevilles ouvrières d’une nouvelle division internationale du travail, ils contribuent de plus en plus largement à la croissance mondiale mais ne sont pas encore à même de tirer celle du reste du monde.

[Texto aquí]
ESPAÑA ANTE EL AUGE ECONÓMICO DE CHINA E INDIA

Pablo Bustelo

Boletín Económico de Información Comercial Española (de próxima publicación en 2008)

El auge económico de China y, más recientemente, de la India es, sin lugar a dudas, uno de los acontecimientos más destacados de finales del siglo XX y principios del XXI. Esto es así porque está siendo protagonizado por dos gigantes demográficos (con una población conjunta de 2.450 millones de personas, que suman casi dos quintas partes la humanidad) y porque está llamado a cambiar muy sustancialmente el mapa económico del planeta.

Como es bien conocido, el crecimiento anual medio del PIB ha rondado el 10% en China desde principios de los años ochenta, mientras que el aumento del PIB de la India, que fue del 6% por año en los años ochenta y noventa, se aceleró hasta el 7,4% en 2000-2006. Esa rápida expansión, que ha superado muy ampliamente el 3% registrado durante el último cuarto de siglo en los países de ingreso alto, ha tenido dos consecuencias principales. En primer lugar, ha provocado un aumento del peso de China e India en la economía mundial. Entre 1980 y 2006 la proporción conjunta de esos dos países en el producto bruto mundial (medido en paridad de poder adquisitivo, PPA) se ha triplicado. En segundo término, China e India han supuesto una parte muy importante del crecimiento de ese producto (en PPA). China ha sido responsable del 22% del incremento del producto bruto mundial entre 1996 y 2006, una proporción superior a la de EEUU (16%). En cuanto a la India, ha supuesto el 8%, un porcentaje mayor que el de Japón (4%).

En realidad, más que de la emergencia de esos dos gigantes asiáticos hay que hablar de re-emergencia, renacimiento o resurgimiento (Rowthorn, 2006). Las estadísticas recopiladas por Maddison (2003) demuestran que el peso de China e India en la economía mundial era muy elevado hacia 1870 (17,1% en el caso de China y 12,1% en el de la India). Las previsiones apuntan a que China volverá a tener ese peso relativo hacia 2015, mientras que la India deberá esperar hasta al menos 2030.

Este trabajo aborda, en primer lugar, los contornos internacionales del auge económico de China e India. En segundo término, se enumeran muy brevemente algunas posibles implicaciones actuales y potenciales de ese auge para la economía española.

[Artículo de próxima publicación en el Boletín Económico de ICE. Texto completo aquí]