Monday, 31 October 2011


The Hindu Business Line


B. S. Raghavan

The Hindu Business Line, October 31, 2011

There is an unceasing flood of academic and journalist writings, as also seminars and workshops, on China, with no end in sight. The irresistible attraction the country holds for governments, think-tanks and institutions of learning all over the globe is without precedent. Every bit of everything that emanates from there is dissected, scrutinised, analysed, discussed and written upon in the form of books, articles, papers, op-ed pieces, columns and commentaries. What explains this extraordinary phenomenon?

It cannot surely be China's GDP ranking or the prospect of its heading soon for the top position overtaking the US and Japan in purchasing power parity terms. Nor can it be its huge foreign exchange holdings, nor the fact of the US being in its debt to the extent of a trillion dollars. These provoke interest but do not account for the veritable hypnotic spell cast by China.

One can only grope for an answer. If one wants to be facetious, one can repeat the answer of George Mallory who, when asked why he was so particular about climbing Everest, promptly retorted: “Because it's there!” China is not only there, looming large like Everest, but, in many respects, fits the famous picturisation of Russia by Winston Churchill as “a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma”.

There are familiar rule books by which most countries of the world have for centuries worked out their domestic policies and economic frameworks, and played their geopolitical and diplomatic games with the outside world. But they are of no use in unravelling what China's decision or action will be in a given situation.

(...) [artículo aquí]

Sunday, 30 October 2011


Manila Bulletin


Fidel V. Ramos

The Manila Bulletin, October 30, 2011

The Pearl River Delta mega-cluster

We were in South China last week, principally in Zhuhai City, Guangdong Province (one of China’s most productive in terms of total GDP-contribution), as head of a Philippine delegation of some 60 entrepreneurs, professionals, and sportspeople to meet with Chinese partners under the auspices of the China-Philippines Chamber of Commerce (CPCC).

Organized on 25 January 2005, the CPCC was given the mandate by the PRoC’s Ministry of Commerce and Ministry of Civil Affairs to promote Philippines-China bilateral trade and economic cooperation. CPCC serves as a valuable network for addressing trade and investment issues, and is an active link of private and state-owned companies among themselves, as well as with government agencies in the Philippines and China. Chaired by Filipino-Chinese Joseph Lim, CEO of the Solid Electronics Group, CPCC counts among its corporate members various pioneering and successful Filipino companies operating in China, principally: Solid Industrial Co., Premix Inve Nutrition Corporation, Handyware China Co., Liwayway Marketing Co., Atlanta Industries Co., and Richfield Corp.

Zhuhai, a prefecture-level city on the southern coast of Guangdong Province, borders Macau SAR and is considered one of China’s modern “windows” to East Asian countries, particularly because of its Formula One hi-speed motor racetrack and annual Aviation Show. Together with nine other cities of Guangdong and the SARs of Hong Kong and Macau, Zhuhai forms part of the so-called Pearl River Delta (PRD) mega-cluster.

Creating economies of scale

Three decades ago, the People’s Republic of China adopted the strategy of clustering its contiguous industrial centers to create economies of scale as well as enhance efficiency in the production and distribution of goods. This move proved to be a huge success and continues to be highly effective in exhibiting China’s progress to the world.

The interconnected, cross-border combination of Macau and Hong Kong SARs with the megacities of the Pearl River Delta notably Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Zhuhai, Dongguan, and China’s eastern seaboard, have a combined population of 660 million and accounts for a GDP of more than USD300 billion.

According to experts, this PRD mega-cluster can attain a GDP of USD500 billion (roughly the equivalent of the economic performance of the 10th to 12th largest world economies) in 6-8 years. Other high-growth cross-border mega-aggrupations include the Cross-Taiwan Straits Economic Zone and the Pan-Beibu Gulf Economic Cooperation (which is the official gateway at Nanning City to the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area).

This set-up provides the Philippines easy access to China’s huge eastern seaboard and southern markets with excellent opportunities for partnerships in trade, tourism, SMEs, services, education, technology exchange, and other business endeavors which should now be fully tapped and exploited.

(...) [artículo aquí]

Friday, 28 October 2011

INDONESIA: No. 10 IN 2020?

The Star


Cecilia Kok

The Star, October 29, 2011

It may not be getting as much attention from the world as China and India, but make no mistake, every business expert and economist are well aware of the economic potential of Indonesia.

With renewed vigour after the 1997/98 Asian Financial Crisis, that the tiger economy is now roaring back, emerging as a star performer in the region and drawing international interest.

The latest endorsement came from renowned economist and New York University professor Nouriel Roubini (aka Dr Doom or Dr Realist.) Roubini told the Jakarta Globe over the week he was impressed by what he saw the moment he stepped foot on Indonesia, and that he was bullish about the country's economy because of its overall policy framework and its government's commitment to reform.

Roubini was quoted as saying: “They know what needs to be done and there's a willingness to do it and at a speed that it needs to be done.”

Resource-rich Indonesia, with a population of about 245.6 million, is the largest economy in South-East Asia. According to the World Bank, the country's gross domestic product (GDP) or the total value of goods and services produced in its economy was worth US$706.6bil in 2010. This made it the fifth largest economy in Asia, and the 18th in the world.

Roubini believes Indonesia could rise to be the 10th largest economy in the world by the end of the decade and the sixth largest by 2030. The country's huge domestic consumption, low debt levels and young demographics are among some of the main factors in its favour.

(...) [artículo aquí]


BBC_WorldNews_Stack_Rev_RGB [Converted]


BBC News, October 28, 2011

The head of the eurozone's bailout fund is beginning attempts to persuade China to invest in a scheme to help rescue member countries facing debt crises.

After meeting Chinese leaders, Klaus Regling said there were no formal negotiations and would be no deal now.

It is thought China may pay about 70bn euros ($100bn) into the fund, which is expected to be boosted to 1tn euros.

Meanwhile French President Nicolas Sarkozy said debt-ridden Greece's entry to the eurozone was a mistake.

Greece was "not ready" when it joined in 2001, he said, adding that it could be rescued thanks to a new deal on the debt crisis.

European leaders worked into the early hours of Thursday in Brussels to secure an agreement aimed at preventing the crisis from spreading to larger eurozone economies.

The deal triggered a worldwide shares rally.

'Regular buyer'

Beijing has made it clear that it will demand strong guarantees on the safety of any contribution it might make.

While the head of the fund, Klaus Regling, described this as a regular meeting, it is being seen as the start of a process which could yield an agreement.

With vast reserves, Beijing is certainly in a position to invest but like any other investor China will want to make sure its money is safe.

In the past, overseas investments made by China's sovereign funds have soured leading to criticism back home.

Mr Regling, who is chief executive of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), said he was not negotiating with China as a potential investor but holding consultations to decide the terms for raising the money.

(...) [artículo aquí]

Thursday, 27 October 2011




Jonathan Stearns and Helene Fouquet

Bloomberg, October 27, 2011

French President Nicolas Sarkozy conferred with his Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao as European policy makers seek to build support for an enlarged rescue fund designed to resolve the region’s sovereign-debt crisis.

Hu hopes that the measures will help to stabilize markets, state-owned China Central Television reported. The phone call between the leaders came hours after a euro-region summit ended with an agreement to boost the European Financial Stability Facility to about $1.4 trillion, leveraging existing guarantees by as much as five times. Japan plans to support the increase, and is waiting to hear from European officials on details for the program, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Sarkozy’s outreach precedes a Group of 20 summit he will host next week, with Europeans seeking to bolster the role of the International Monetary Fund in overcoming the euro-region’s woes. Australia’s finance chief said that while it’s “appropriate” to look at the IMF’s resources, Europeans must look to themselves first for bailout money.

“The Europeans have their back against the wall and China is the lender of last resort,” Patrick Bennett, a strategist at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce in Hong Kong, said in a Bloomberg Television interview before Sarkozy’s call.

The French president’s office said in a statement that Sarkozy and Hu “agreed to cooperate closely to ensure the G20 can make a decisive contribution to ensure growth and global stability.”

(...) [artículo aquí]

Wednesday, 26 October 2011




Brett Jensen

Seeking Alpha, October 26, 2011

After selling off significantly over the summer, the market has had one of its best months in decades during October. The commodity stocks that helped lead the selloff on concerns about Chinese demand growth have recovered but are still off substantially from their pre-selloff highs.

One of myriad reasons for the overall market rally has been the better than expected manufacturing and other economic reports coming from the Middle Kingdom. However, while all eyes are on Europe there are disturbing signs still coming out of China that point to a huge property/lending bubble that could be the next headwind to rock the equity markets worldwide.

10 disturbing numbers from China:

1. 6.1% - The reported inflation rate as of September.

2. 9-11% - The probable real rate of inflation in the country.

(…) [artículo aquí]

Tuesday, 25 October 2011


The Korea Herald


Slowing growth coupled with price rises poses dilemma for policymakers

The Korea Herald, October 25, 2011

The Bank of Korea froze its key interest rate at 3.25 percent a year for a fourth consecutive month in October in a move that analysts said placed worries over growing external uncertainties ahead of inflation concerns.

A report by the central bank said at the time the downside risks to the economy were increasing due to worsening external factors such as the eurozone’s sovereign debt crisis and slowdowns in major countries.

Announcing the widely-expected decision, however, BOK Governor Kim Choong-soo attempted to put a lid on expectations of high inflation

“Our policy direction toward monetary normalization remains unchanged,” he said, adding that there was no discussion on rate cuts during a meeting of monetary committee members.

Consumer prices rose by an average of 4.5 percent for the first nine months of this year, exceeding the central bank’s target ceiling of 4 percent. In September, the consumer price index climbed by 4.3 percent, easing from 5.3 percent a month earlier. But analysts noted that the slower pace was attributed mainly to seasonal factors, saying the remainder of the year is likely to see upward pressure due to planned hikes in public service fees and higher import prices resulting from the weakening of the Korean won against the U.S. dollar.

(…) [artículo aquí]

Monday, 24 October 2011




Bloomberg News

Bloomberg, October 24, 2011

China’s manufacturing may expand in October for the first time in four months, snapping the longest contraction since 2009, after a preliminary index of purchasing managers showed a rebound in new orders and output.

The reading of 51.1 for the index released by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics today was the highest in five months and compares with the final reading of 49.9 for September and August. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.

The Chinese report, along with Japanese data today showing an increase in exports exceeding economists’ forecasts, signaled that Asia’s largest two economies are withstanding Europe’s sovereign debt crisis. Shares and currencies in the region advanced as the figures, and a plan by European leaders to contain the region’s financial woes, buoyed investor confidence.

“As long as Europe and the U.S. see very weak growth but not an outright recession, Asia in general and larger, more domestic-demand driven economies such as China, India and Indonesia in particular, should hold up,” said Louis Kuijs, Hong Kong-based chief Asia economist at MF Global Holdings Ltd., who previously worked in Beijing at the World Bank. “The PMI data today underlines just how well China’s industrial sector is holding up against the global slowdown.”

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 2.6 percent as of 5:19 p.m. in Tokyo. Stocks in China rallied after the data. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.3 percent to 2,370.33 at the 3 p.m. close. The gauge declined earlier after Premier Wen Jiabao signaled over the weekend that policy makers will maintain an anti-inflation monetary stance.

(…) [artículo aquí]

Sunday, 23 October 2011


The Economic Times


The Economic Times, October 23, 2011

The great Chinese-led deflation in goods prices may have come to an end.

Beginning in the 1990s, the emergence of China as a major exporter first depressed and then held down the prices of many goods, helping to improve U.S. living standards. But recently, prices have begun to rise.

The change can be seen clearly in the Consumer Price Index for apparel. Because prices can be volatile, three-month moving averages are used to smooth the trends.

Prices are still well below where they were in 1991, a performance that no one would have expected at the time. Over the previous two decades, beginning in 1971, that index doubled.

But in the past few months, the index has begun to rise at the fastest rate in many years. This spring, prices were still about 9 percent lower than in late 1991. Now the prices are just 5 percent below the level of two decades ago.

The 12-month change in the index is now up to 3.6 percent, the highest since 1992. Over the past six months, the three-month average has risen at an annual rate of 7.6 percent.

Prices for apparel were broadly steady for most of the 1990s, before beginning a sharp descent in 1998 that continued until 2003. Much of the decline was because of imports from China, which forced down prices and allowed Chinese suppliers to supplant companies from many other countries. The declines continued at a slower pace for several more years, but prices now appear to have hit bottom in 2007.

(…) [artículo aquÍ]

Saturday, 22 October 2011




Keith B. Richburg

The Washington Post, October 22, 2011

BEIJING — In tiny Boao, on China’s southernmost Hainan Island, the sleek new glass-and-steel train station rises above the town like a modern-day version of New York’s Grand Central. The inside is cavernous, shiny and pristine. And the sleek white bullet train whisks passengers along the island’s coast to the airport in Haikou in less than an hour.

Except on a recent journey, there were hardly any passengers.

The high-speed Hainan train, built at a cost of about $3 billion and traversing just 190 miles along the island’s coast, is in many ways a metaphor for China’s infrastructure building boom of recent years — efficient, super-modern, costly and so far vastly underused.

Since late 2008, when China enacted a fiscal stimulus program to avert the contagion effects of a global economic slowdown, the country has embarked on a building binge, including new highways, high-speed rail lines, bridges, municipal subway systems, terminal buildings and nearly a hundred new airports.

A new rail line cut travel time between Beijing and Shanghai to just five hours. The world’s longest bridge over water opened this year in the city of Qingdao, spanning 26 miles across the Jiaozhou Bay. China is on track to soon surpass the United States in the number of highway miles built.

To many who have looked on with envy, this amounts to investing in the future.

“Building a world-class transportation system is part of what made us an economic superpower,” President Obama said in his September speech to a joint session of Congress. “And now we’re going to sit back and watch China build newer airports and faster railroads?”

But this building boom has raised questions here. How much infrastructure building is too much? Has the country taken on too much debt to build the world’s fastest trains, longest bridges and most expansive highway network?

And, in light of two major accidents — a deadly collision of two high-speed trains in Wenzhou in July and a September crash on a subway line in Shanghai — is the race to build coming at a cost to safety?

(…) [artículo aquí]

Friday, 21 October 2011


China Briefing


Vivian Ni

China Briefing, October 21, 2011

Oct. 21 – China’s third-quarter economic statistics showed the lowest GDP growth rate in the past two years, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Tuesday. The continuing economic slowdown – amid the deteriorating external environment and slightly tamed domestic inflation – has made economists wonder whether or not some adjustment in the current tightening policy is approaching.

Slowdown in GDP growth
China’s GDP growth rate during the third quarter edged down to 9.1 percent, from 9.5 percent in the second quarter and 9.7 percent in the first quarter. The figure – although still considered by the NBS as an indicator representing steady and rapid growth – appears to be lower than the medium estimate of 9.3 percent by Bloomberg and 9.2 percent by Reuters.

The deceleration in foreign demand, largely caused by the lingering financial crisis in the West, has contributed to China’s economic slowdown. The world’s largest exporter has seen its trade surplus in September decrease by 12.4 percent from a year earlier to US$14.5 billion, and has seen its shipment growth to its largest export market Europe more than halved from 22 percent to 9.8 percent.

(…) [artículo aquí]

Wednesday, 19 October 2011


International Business Times


Esther Thomas

International Business Times, October 19, 2011

Analysts and federal authorities remained optimistic on China's fiscal strength even as the world's second-largest economy slowed down in the third quarter.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday, the latest period was the slowest for China's economy since early 2009. China's GDP growth decelerated to 9.1 per cent in the third quarter this year from 9.5 per cent in the second quarter and 9.7 per cent in the first quarter.

However, figures released last week showed industrial output and retail sales accelerated faster in September. Consumer prices reached 6.1 per cent, surpassing a 4 percent target.

"The latest data won't trigger any sudden change in monetary or fiscal policy, but looking ahead the overall direction is likely to be easing," economist Yao Wei told Bloomberg News. "Consumption has held up quite well."

Even Chinese central bank adviser Xia Bin believed the nation's growth "remains sound" and had developed according to the "prudent" monetary policy earlier instituted by government.

"I don't believe China will launch another round of major economic stimulus," Xia said in Bloomberg.

(...) [artículo aquí]

Tuesday, 18 October 2011




Bloomberg News, October 18, 2011

China’s economy grew 9.1 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, the slowest pace since 2009, driving stocks lower on concern that Europe’s debt crisis is dragging on the global recovery.

The gain was less than the median estimate of 9.3 percent in a Bloomberg News survey of 22 economists and followed a 9.5 percent increase in the previous three months. The statistics bureau released the data in Beijing today.

Asia’s benchmark stock index fell as much as 2.4 percent after China’s growth was limited by tighter credit and weaker demand from Europe, where Germany yesterday rejected speculation that any immediate resolution of the region’s crisis is possible. A slowdown in the pace of China’s expansion, which remains five times that of the U.S., may help Premier Wen Jiabao to tame inflation that is above the government’s target.

“The latest developments in the euro zone have unnerved investors and many are fearful we’re going to see a repeat of the slump we saw at the end of 2008,” said Tim Condon, Singapore-based head of Asian research at ING Groep NV (INGA) and a former World Bank economist. A “hard landing” for China would require a bigger “shock” to growth than is likely, he said.

The Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.2 percent as of 2:34 p.m. local time, the biggest loss in almost a month. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index sank 2.4 percent as of 3:29 p.m. in Tokyo. The yuan weakened 0.2 percent to 6.3823 per dollar.

(...) [artículo aquí]

Monday, 17 October 2011




Denise Tsang

South China Morning Post, October 17, 2011

As overseas buyers flood China's largest and most established trade show, the Canton Fair, change is afoot in the world's largest exporter.

Relentless inflation in production costs and wages had forced many manufacturers to relocate production from the Pearl River Delta or Yangtze River Delta to Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam and Indonesia, some buyers said at the 110th China Import and Export Fair at the weekend.

They said moving offered a solution for manufacturers, who had limited room to raise costs for buyers at a time of a possible double-dip recession in the United States and European Union, China's largest trading partners. It also came at a time when Beijing's policy was to force factories to upgrade or migrate.

Despite the economic turmoil abroad, the trade fair, held each spring and autumn in Guangzhou since 1957, was packed with visitors from across the globe on Saturday, the first day of a 15-day show.

(...) [artículo aquí]

Sunday, 16 October 2011


Economic Times logo OK


The Economic Times, October 16, 2011

MUMBAI: The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) has revised its economic growth forecast for the current fiscal downward to 7.9 per cent from its earlier estimate of 8 per cent.

“The decline in the forecast is entirely because of scaling down for the industrial sector," the CMIE said in its monthly review, adding that the estimated 7.9 per cent growth would be lower than the 8.5 per cent expansion recorded in FY'11.

The reduced forecast can also be attributed to a likely sharp fall in growth of the agriculture sector from a rather high 6.6 per cent to 2.9 per cent and a projected slowdown in industrial growth from 7.9 per cent to 7.5 per cent, the report said.

The Mumbai-based think-tank said growth of the industrial sector is expected to slow to 7.5 per cent, lower than its earlier forecast of 7.8 per cent.

Similarly, the manufacturing sector is expected to grow by 7.5 per cent, as against its earlier estimate of 8 per cent. The growth forecast for the mining sector has been revised downward from 4.8 per cent to 4.4 per cent.

The decline in the growth expectations of the manufacturing sector emanate from a sharper-than-expected decline in index of industrial production (IIP) growth in July and expectations that the August IIP will also be weak, it said.

“We do expect a recovery in the second half of the year. However, the slower than expected growth in the first five months warranted the revision in forecast," the report said.

With respect to its projection of 2.9 per cent growth in the agricultural sector, the CMIE said rainfall till September was good and precipitation was 2 per cent above the long period average. Kharif sowing was 3.1 per cent higher than the previous season as well.

(...) [artículo aquí]

Saturday, 15 October 2011


Asia Times


Bruno de Paiva

Asia Times, October 15, 2011

North Korean Prime Minister Choe Yong-rim recently spent a week in China on an official visit on behalf of the notoriously isolated and totalitarian nation.

The 80-year-old prime minister visited the Chinese capital Beijing, Shanghai and Jiangsu province, in China’s east, where he met with top Chinese bureaucrats including Premier Wen Jiabao and President Hu Jintao.

The visit followed recent bilateral talks between North Korea and Russia, Cambodia and Myanmar for the purpose of increasing trade in food and energy.

Those official meetings have led to the likelihood that the talks in China by Choe also focused on North Korea's economy, whose survival is largely reliant on China.

While North Korea has recently attempted to establish greater trade relations elsewhere, the visit to China by Choe shows that the cards it has played in recent years has given it no real option but to keep China as its main trading partner.

(…) [artículo aquí]

Friday, 14 October 2011




Bloomberg News, October 14, 2011

China’s ruling Communist Party begins an annual conclave in Beijing tomorrow, with top officials seeking to shape the core leadership that will run what may become the world’s biggest economy in the next decade.

The party’s leaders are jockeying to mold the membership of the nine-person Politburo Standing Committee that will rule collectively under the leadership of Vice President Xi Jinping, who is expected to be named party head late next year, said Huang Jing, a professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore.

“This is a time when the next generation of China’s leaders needs to be exposed,” Huang said. “Who will get more pictures, more photo opportunities, whose talk or speech will be reported -- all this can be read as confirmation.”

Potential candidates range from an English-speaking former Harvard University scholar to a North Korean-trained economist. Their outlook will have increasing importance as China’s economy, the biggest contributor to global growth, is buffeted by Europe’s deepening debt crisis. While the International Monetary Fund and Standard Chartered Plc. estimate China’s economy may surpass the U.S. in size during their tenure, there are rising concerns growth will slow.

President Hu Jintao is due to step down from his role as General Secretary of the 80-million member Communist Party at a congress late next year and retire from the presidency in March 2013 after a decade in power. Growth has averaged 10.9 percent a year since Hu took office in 2003 and China has overtaken Japan to become the world’s second-biggest economy.

(...) [artículo aquí]

Thursday, 13 October 2011




Langi Chiang and Koh Gui Qing

Reuters, October 13, 2011

China's trade surplus narrowed for a second straight month in September to $14.5 billion, with both imports and exports lower than expected, reflecting global economic weakness and domestic cooling that will deepen policy quandaries facing Beijing.

The trade data issued on Thursday laid bare trends at the heart of Beijing's debate about how to handle U.S. pressure for a higher yuan while seeking to protect both export-driven jobs and tame inflationary pressures.

Moments after the data was released, a deputy chief of China's customs agency staked out one position in that debate, saying a higher yuan is already hurting exports.

"The rise in the renminbi exchange rate may limit the room for export growth," Lu Peijun, the deputy head of the Chinese customs administration, said at a news conference about the data. The renminbi is another name for the yuan.

"China is still facing relatively big imported inflationary pressure and trade conditions are also deteriorating," said Lu.

Many traders are already wagering Beijing will tighten its leash on the yuan, which fell against the dollar on Thursday after the central bank set a sharply weaker mid-point for daily trading. Forwards markets are pricing in depreciation of the currency in the year ahead.

But other influential Chinese voices, including an official newspaper on Thursday, say Beijing may be preparing for a widening of the yuan's daily trading band to help fend off speculators and inflation.

September's trade surplus was smaller than August's $17.8 billion and less than half of the $31.5 billion recorded in July. The annual pace of exports to the troubled European Union more than halved from August.

(...) [artículo aquí]

Wednesday, 12 October 2011


Reuters DEF


Chen Aizhu

Reuters, October 12, 2011

BEIJING (Reuters) - China's oil demand growth next year is unlikely to revisit the blistering pace of 2010 but at around 6 percent it will still be enough to underpin oil prices even as developed world economies struggle.

The world's No.2 fuel user is adding more refining capacity and storage tanks to feed an economy expected to grow at 9 percent or faster, which should allow demand growth to match this year's expected 6 percent.

While half the pace of last year, China's demand this year contributed more than half of global incremental demand, according to the International Energy Agency.

Analysts predict roughly 600,000 bpd of incremental oil use in 2012, which should continue to support global crude prices that have averaged more than $94 this year, nearly $20 above their average for the previous five years.

In contrast the United States, the world's top oil user, will see a tepid 80,000 bpd growth in demand, according to the U.S. government's Energy Information Agency (EIA).

"We expect growth will be faster than consensus estimates over the next 5 years, which will be supportive of global oil prices," Neil Beveridge of Bernstein research wrote in September.

"China remains at the early stage of a secular growth cycle."

A consensus of around 9 percent expansion in the Chinese economy, easing off this year's estimated 9.4 percent but still robust, would in particular support diesel, the main transportation fuel for manufacturing.

As refiners are slated to start about 530,000 bpd of new crude processing facilities, versus 360,000 bpd this year, and as end-2012 is the target for China to complete building its second-phase strategic oil tanks, China's appetite for foreign crude may rise quicker than this year's modest 7 percent.

Beveridge's team has pegged China's compound annual aggregated oil growth at 6.7 percent from now to 2015, citing vehicle ownership and a petrochemical boom as key drivers for growth.

Fu Chengyu, chairman of top Asian refiner Sinopec Corp, told Reuters on Wednesday that he expected Chinese demand to hold steady.

"Global oil demand is unlikely to grow strongly due to the economic outlook, but China will see sustainable growth next year, similar to this year," said Fu.

(...) [artículo aquí]

Tuesday, 11 October 2011




Lawrence Chung

South China Morning Post, Oct 11, 2011

Taiwan's President Ma Ying-jeou yesterday urged Beijing to pursue democracy and "face the existence of the Republic of China", as the island celebrated its national day and the centenary of the revolution that was a precursor to both governments.

Stressing that the 1911 revolution launched by Sun Yat-sen to overthrow the Qing dynasty was a shared memory on both sides of the Taiwan Strait, Ma urged Beijing to remember the ideals of Sun, who was later honoured as the founding father of the Chinese republic.

"The aspiration of our founding father Dr Sun Yat-sen was to establish a free and democratic nation with equitable distribution of wealth," he told thousands of local and foreign dignitaries in front of the Presidential Office in Taipei.

He asked the mainland to "courageously move in that direction", saying it was the "only way for the two sides to shrink their gap".

Ma called on Beijing not to "deliberately cut out certain parts of history", but to take note of the "actual facts of history and face the existence of the Republic of China head-on".

"The Republic of China's existence is referred to not in the past tense, but in the present," he said, adding the republic had "continued to flourish in Taiwan for more than six decades" and would continue to flourish and radiate vitality.

(...) [artículo aquí]

Monday, 10 October 2011

CHINA, 1911-2011

Global Spin - Time


Hannah Beech

Global Spin (Time Blog), October 10, 2011

In a country that claims five millennia of history, what's a mere century? Oct. 10 marks the 100th anniversary of the start of China's 1911 Xinhai Revolution, which ended 2,000 years of imperial rule. The fall of the Qing Dynasty (1644-1911) was precipitated by an uprising in the central Chinese city of Wuchang (now part of Wuhan) that eventually led to the formation of a Chinese republic under the tenuous leadership of Sun Yat-sen.

This milestone was celebrated on Sunday by China's leaders, who gathered under a massive portrait of Sun, the so-called founder of modern China whose republic was soon engulfed by warlord battles, struggles between the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the Kuomintang, plus the Japanese invasion during World War II. At the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, President Hu Jintao proclaimed that the 1911 event was “a thoroughly modern, national and democratic revolution.” Xinhua, China's state-run news agency, opined that “the 1911 Revolution not only rid Chinese men of humiliating ponytails and women of the excruciatingly painful foot-binding, but also removed the people's blind faith in the emperor, as well as fear of foreign powers. The event has since been emancipating people's minds from thousands of years of oppression and self-enclosure.” (Sunday's televised ceremony was also notable for the appearance of retired leader Jiang Zemin, Hu's 85-year-old predecessor, who had missed a July celebration of the Chinese Communist Party's 90th anniversary, leading to rumors about his illness or even death.)

(...) [artículo aquí]

Sunday, 9 October 2011


El Pais logo def


Pablo Bustelo

El País (Negocios), 9 de octubre de 2011

Las previsiones más recientes anticipan una seria corrección a la baja del crecimiento en los principales países avanzados en la segunda mitad de 2011 y durante el año próximo. Algunos analistas no descartan incluso una nueva recesión, aunque, afortunadamente, menos intensa que la de 2009. Ante ese panorama, conviene preguntarse de qué manera podría China (la segunda mayor economía del mundo, tras haber adelantado a Japón el año pasado) contribuir a acelerar o a contener las tendencias recesivas en los países de ingreso alto. La cuestión no es en absoluto baladí, ya que China supuso el 20% del crecimiento global entre 2005 y 2010 y generará seguramente el 30% en 2011, esto es bastante más que EE UU o la UE.

La opinión pesimista es que China podría sufrir un aterrizaje abrupto (una caída del crecimiento de cuatro puntos o más), lo que agravaría mucho los problemas de Occidente. Quienes prevén ese escenario argumentan que la política monetaria restrictiva (la inflación interanual fue del 6,5% en julio y del 6,2% en septiembre, frente al 3,3% de 2010), el agotamiento del estímulo fiscal lanzado en 2008 y la importante deuda de los gobiernos locales (estimada en 27% del PIB) se añadirían a un frenazo de las exportaciones e incluso a un eventual estallido en el mercado inmobiliario.

(...) [artículo aquí]

Saturday, 8 October 2011


asia_times_logo OK


A Contest for Supremacy: China, America, and the Struggle for Mastery in Asia by Aaron L Friedberg

Reviewed by Benjamin A Shobert

Asia Times, October 8, 2011

The extremes are easy: China as villain at one, pursuing global hegemony achieved through a mish-mash of totalitarianism, socialism and capitalism. Or, if you prefer, China as the benevolent rising power whose pursuits should be understood only to the extent they enable the country to achieve its economic aims.

The obvious danger in these extremes is that they are mutually exclusive and, as such, have successfully promoted inaction. For Aaron Friedberg, professor at Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School and author of the new A Contest for Supremacy: China, America, and the Struggle for Mastery in Asia, pursuing the status quo in the face of China's rise would be a strategic error.

Friedberg's book is less a call to action and more a series of increasingly probative questions and macro-observations that seek to determine whether American policy towards China has grown complacent and, if so, whether we have considered the mid and long-term implications of our complacency.

(...) [artículo aquí]

Thursday, 6 October 2011


Jakarta Globe


Aung Zaw

The Jakarta Globe, October, 7, 2011

In May, newly “elected” Burmese President Thein Sein flew to Beijing to meet with Chinese leaders. The trip, his first state visit as president of Burma, was intended to upgrade Sino-Burmese relations.

In that respect, Thein Sein’s trip was a success. While he was in Beijing, the two nations agreed to forge a comprehensive “strategic partnership” and Chinese Prime Minster Wen Jiabao declared after the meeting that, “The partnership is bound to push forward bilateral friendly cooperation in all areas to a new stage.”

At the time, there was no doubt that China remained firmly behind the Burmese regime following the November 2010 sham election. Whether they wore civilian clothes or a military uniform, Burma’s ruling leaders knew they could count on Beijing’s unequivocal support in the international arena.

(...) [artículo aquí]


Sydney Morning Herald


Malcolm Turnbull

The Sydney Morning Herald, October 6, 2011

The rise of China and, following it, India is a massive realignment of economic and, in due course, political and strategic power at an unprecedented speed and scale.

By any measure China's growth has been extraordinary - from 1980 to 2010 its economy grew 18-fold, an annual average of 10 per cent. China has been the world's second largest economy since 2002 and according to the IMF's forecasts will overtake the US in 2016.

India's reforms started after those in China and its re-emergence as a global economic power has been more gradual. Still, from 1980 to 2010 India's GDP increased six-fold, an annual average of 6 per cent. In 1990 western Europe and North America produced 49 per cent of world GDP, but by 2030 their share will almost halve to 26 per cent, according to Willem Buiter at Citigroup.

Emerging Asia - excluding Japan - produced 14 per cent of world GDP in 1990, but will more than triple its share to 44 per cent in 2030 according to Buiter. Those are much bigger shifts in the location of global production than were recorded after the Industrial Revolution, and they are occurring over much shorter time frames.

More than almost any other country, Chinese leaders draw strength and guidance from history. Deng Xiaoping reached back to the trade and exploration of Admiral Zheng He in the 15th century when, in 1979, he began to open China to foreign trade. He reminded the hardliners that when China had engaged with the world it had been strong. When in the 16th century it closed off the world, this began a decline that ended with 150 years of humiliating invasion, colonisation and exploitation by stronger nations.

(...) [artículo aquí]

Wednesday, 5 October 2011


India Real Time


Jyoti Malhotra

IndiaRealTime, October 5, 2011

India and Afghanistan signed a strategic partnership in Delhi Tuesday, just a few days after Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s office accused a Pakistani citizen of carrying out a suicide attack against former president and peace envoy Burhanuddin Rabbani last month.

The partnership, which was signed after Mr. Karzai met with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, involves India training Afghan security forces. This takes ties between Delhi and Kabul to a new level, beyond the economic reconstruction that India has been very careful to focus on in the last decade since the Americans returned to Afghanistan after the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks. It is the first such agreement Afghanistan has with any country, including the U.S.

“The people of Afghanistan have suffered enough. They deserve to live in peace and decide their future themselves, without outside interference, coercion and intimidation,” Mr. Singh told the media Tuesday evening.

Mr. Karzai said he hoped South Asia would, one day, be able to live in peace where “radicalism is not used as an instrument of state policy.”

The partnership agreement specifically calls for India “to assist, as mutually determined, in the training, equipping and capacity-building programmes for Afghan national security forces,” representing a significant scaling up of India’s intention to enhance its presence in Afghanistan.

(...) [artículo aquí]

Tuesday, 4 October 2011


asia_times_logo OK


Francesco Sisci

Asia Times, October 4, 2011

BEIJING - It is clear, although little stated, that the present crisis in Europe might be a blessing in disguise for the political union. In a matter of weeks, all parties - previously hesitant if not in opposition to strengthening the European Union - have started calling for stronger measures from Germany (the strongest economy in the area) and Brussels to tackle the credit threat and move toward closer economic, and thus political, integration of the regional pact.

Voices from Britain, a member of the union but not of the euro, from America, once suspicious of the political unity of the European powerhouse, and from Germany, scared of its past ambitions to continental dominance, are now a chorus pushing for faster and closer integration of financial policies. These, paired with the already agreed upon monetary union of the European Central Bank, could push for some de facto greater political union.

Policies governing common taxation guidelines in fact touch on the basic relationship between the government and the people, and thus are the fulcrum of any political entity. The centralization of monetary and fiscal policies in Brussels (the seat of the European Commission) or Frankfurt (the seat of the European Central Bank) could quite easily also bring about the next centralization of trade policies (already pretty much centralized), and thus greater coordination in foreign affairs, and defense policy.

Here, there is a standing complaint from the ally America: at the beginning of the bombing offensive against Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi in the spring, former American secretary of defense Robert Gates complained about the lack of European defense spending. In fact, the Europeans are spending quite a lot on defense overall; unfortunately, the European countries are spending each on its own, with no unified continental policy. Then there is a huge dispersion of resources and want of efficiency.

(...) [artículo aquí]

Monday, 3 October 2011


China Post


Fuyuan Hsiao

The China Post, October 3, 2011

Over the past five years, China has taught the West a new word in English: “shengshi,” or “flourishing age.”

A senior reporter for a Western media outlet stationed in Beijing for many years captured the essence of the concept in talking about how China has evolved. A few years ago, he says, the most hotly debated topic in China was at what point it could become part of the G-8. Then two years ago, American scholars reduced the ranks of the world's powerful countries to the G-2 — United States and China.

“This year, all that's left is the G-1 — China,” said the reporter in fluent Mandarin, sensing China's steadily expanding resolve.

Based on objective indicators, China certainly has the right to say to the world: “When China is not happy, the world will not be happy.”

The country is the world's leading producer of more than 200 kinds of products and the world's biggest market for items such as cars, mobile phones and personal computers normally associated with advanced consumer markets. China not only can build airplanes, high-speed rail lines and aircraft carriers, it exports its technology abroad. While governments in the West have debt ratios of over 80 percent of GDP, China's stands at a mere 17 percent.

(...) [artículo aquí]