Tuesday 30 April 2013

CHINA’S DEFENSE WHITE PAPER

Asia Times 2

BEIJING ELEVATES CORE SECURITY CONCEPTS

Timothy Heath

Asia Times, April 30, 2013

China organized this year's defense white paper around the historic missions concept as the principal framework for understanding the mission and activities of the People's Liberation Army (PLA). The concept of "core interests", a key driver of the historic missions, featured prominently in the white paper as well [1].

The high profile accorded these concepts reflects their enhanced authoritativeness as well as China's increased power and influence. For these reasons, Beijing can be expected to step up efforts to both consolidate control of its sovereignty claims and shape a favorable international order.

The title of this year's defense white paper, "The Diversified Employment of China's Armed Forces", refers to the "diversified tasks" (duoyanghua renwu) the heart of the "historic missions of the armed forces in the new period of the new century", often referred to simply as the "historic missions".

The missions concept refers to strategic guidance that then-Central Military Commission (CMC) chairman Hu Jintao provided to the military in late 2004 and which has been mentioned in defense white papers since 2006.

(...) [article here]

Monday 29 April 2013

ECONOMIC RISKS IN ASIA

Reuters

IMF FLAGS RISKS OF ASSET BUBBLES, MIDDLE INCOME TRAP IN ASIA

Kevin Lim

Reuters, April 29, 2013

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Asia needs to guard against asset bubbles and its emerging economies must improve government institutions and liberalise rigid labour and product markets if they wish to reach the level of developed countries, the International Monetary Fund said on Monday.

"Emerging Asia is potentially susceptible to the 'middle-income trap,' a phenomenon whereby economies risk stagnation at middle-income levels and fail to graduate into the ranks of advanced economies," the IMF said in its latest Regional Economic Outlook for Asia and the Pacific.

"MIEs (middle-income economies) in Asia are less exposed to the risk of a sustained growth slowdown than MIEs in other regions. However, their relative performance is weaker on institutions," the international funding agency said.

IMF's warning about the emerging risks faced by Asian countries come at time when the region looks set to lead a global economic recovery as risks from a meltdown in Europe recede.

"While the external risk of severe economic fallout from an acute euro area crisis has diminished, regional risks are coming into clearer focus. These include some ongoing buildup of financial imbalances and rising asset prices," the IMF said

(...) [article here]

Sunday 28 April 2013

ABE AND HISTORY

The Japan Times

ABE-HISTORY: PREMIER AGAIN SEEMS SET ON STOKING CONTROVERSY AND IRE

Jeff Kingston

The Japan Times, April 28, 2013

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is no stranger to historical controversy. Back in 2001 he pressured national broadcaster NHK to revise a documentary about the judgment of an international people’s tribunal regarding the war responsibility of Emperor Hirohito(posthumously known as Emperor Showa). And in 2007 he riled Koreans with his remarks quibbling over the level of coercion used in recruiting so-called wartime comfort women on the day that Koreans commemorate the 1919 uprising against Japanese colonial rule.

As a member of the Association to Consider the Future Path for Japan and History Education founded in 1997, Abe wants to promote an exonerating narrative of Japan’s wartime past. But Abe II and his deft handlers understand just how risky it is to unilaterally revise history, and he is now relying on Education Minister Hakubun Shimomura and Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga to do the heavy lifting onairbrushing the past.

There is widespread expectation that if the Liberal Democratic Party which Abe heads wins the Upper House elections in July, thus gaining control of both houses, he will work to remove constitutional constraints on the military.

(...) [article here]

Saturday 27 April 2013

ABE’S HISTORICAL REVISIONISM

The Washington Post

SHINZO ABE’S INABILITY TO FACE HISTORY

Editorial Board

The Washington Post, April 27, 2013

FROM THE MOMENT last fall when Shinzo Abe reclaimed the office of Japanese prime minister that he had bungled away five years earlier, one question has stood out: Would he restrain his nationalist impulses — and especially his historical revisionism — to make progress for Japan?

Until this week, the answer to that question was looking positive. Mr. Abe has taken brave steps toward reforming Japan’s moribund economy. He defied powerful interest groups within his party, such as rice farmers, to join free-trade talks with the United States and other Pacific nations that have the potential to spur growth in Japan. He spoke in measured terms of his justifiable desire to increase defense spending.

This week he seemed willing to put all the progress at risk. Asked in parliament whether he would reconsider an official apology that Japan issued in 1995 for its colonization of Korea in the past century, Mr. Abe replied: “The definition of what constitutes aggression has yet to be established in academia or in the international community. Things that happened between nations will look differently depending on which side you view them from.”

(...) [article here]

Friday 26 April 2013

CHINA’S MILITARY MODERNIZATION

The Indian Express

CHINA INTENDS TO LIMIT US OPERATIONS IN WEST PACIFIC: PENTAGON

PTI

The Indian Express, April 26 2013

Washington: Expressing concerns over the pace at which China is increasing its defence budget and rapidly modernising its armed forces, the Pentagon has said that the aim of the regional hegemony is to limit US's ability to operate in Western Pacific.

"The concern that we have is the pace of this military expenditure as well as the scope of the investments. China's investing in a comprehensive modernisation of its military," David Helvey, the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defence for the East Asia Asian and Pacific Security Affairs, told Senators during a Congressional hearing.

Responding to questions, Helvey said China's defence budget now stands at USD 120 billion and has been growing at 10 per cent per annum for past two decades now.

"The challenge is that there is not a whole lot of transparency in terms of what China's military spending," he said.

The US, he said, is paying good attention to a number of capabilities that China is building now.

"China's investments in its nuclear and nuclear-capable forces is something that we're watching very carefully; investments in its undersea warfare capabilities, including submarines both nuclear-powered and conventionally diesel-powered submarines, as well as its long-range conventional precision strike weapons systems, both ballistic and cruise missiles," Helvey said.

"These are part and parcel of what we in the Department of Defence refer to as an anti-access and area denial type of strategy, which, if put into place and executed, could be intended to limit the ability of the United States or other militaries from operating in the Western Pacific," the top Pentagon official told lawmakers.

(...) [article here]

Thursday 25 April 2013

CHINA-JAPAN DISPUTES

The Diplomat

ANOTHER TWIST IN THE CHINA-JAPAN ISLAND DISPUTE

The arrival of Chinese near disputed islands prompts a blunt response from Tokyo.

James R. Holmes

The Diplomat, April 25, 2013

Uncharacteristically blunt language issued forth from Tokyo on Tuesday, after the news broke that eight Chinese maritime-enforcement ships had entered the waters around the contested Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. While a Chinese presence in these waters has become commonplace in recent months, this was the largest flotilla to fly the PRC flag near the archipelago. The deployment reportedly came after Japanese nationalists ventured near the islands in small craft. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe reported instructing Japanese forces "to take resolute measures against attempts to enter our territorial waters and make a landing." If Chinese personnel landed on the islets, added Abe, "then of course we will forcibly expel them."

There are a few question marks to the encounter. First consider the Chinese side. Some news reporting attributed the Chinese action to Japanese officials' recent visits to the Yasukuni Shrine. Such visits are guaranteed to raise hackles not just in China but in South Korea. It stands to reason that there may have been some link between the two events. But correlation isn't causation. Beijing made no explicit connection between Yasukuni and the Senkakus. This week's maritime incursion, moreover, differed from previous Sino-Japanese encounters only in scale, not in kind. And China's leadership has vowed to maintain a regular if not standing presence in waters that lap against the archipelago.

(...) [article here]

Tuesday 23 April 2013

YASUKUNI SHRINE

WashPost logo3

JAPAN OFFICIALS’ WAR SHRINE VISITS MAY REFLECT SHIFT TOWARD PM ABE’S NATIONALIST AGENDA

Associated Press

The Washington Post, April 23, 2013

TOKYO — Visits by Cabinet ministers and lawmakers to a shrine honoring Japan’s war dead, including 14 World War II leaders convicted of atrocities, signal Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s determination to pursue a more nationalist agenda after months of focusing on the economy.

Nearly 170 Japanese lawmakers paid homage at Yasukuni Shrine on Tuesday. A day earlier, visits by three Cabinet ministers, said by the government to be unofficial, drew protests from neighbors South Korea and China over actions they view as failures to acknowledge Japan’s militaristic past.

China and South Korea — Japan’s No. 1 and No. 3 trading partners, respectively — bore the brunt of Tokyo’s pre-1945 militarist expansion in Asia and routinely criticize visits to the shrine. Almost seven decades after the war ended, it still overshadows relations.

Adding to the discord, Chinese surveillance vessels were patrolling Tuesday near a cluster of uninhabited islands in the East China Sea that are controlled by Japan but claimed by both countries.

China’s State Oceanic Administration said Tuesday that its maritime surveillance ships had chased away a group of Japanese ultra-nationalists who visited the area.

(...) [article here]

Monday 22 April 2013

INTERVIEW WITH CHEN GUANGCHENG

Asia TimesCHEN: THE PEOPLE MUST DRIVE REFORMS

Courtney Brooks

Asia Times, April 22, 2013

Blind civil-rights activist Chen Guangcheng, who gained international recognition for taking on China's one-child policy and other causes, set off a diplomatic firestorm last year when he escaped house arrest in China and fled to the US Embassy in Beijing.

Following diplomatic intervention by Washington, he was allowed to travel to the United States to study law in New York, where he currently lives with his family.

RFE/RL correspondent Courtney Brooks sat down with Chen to discuss his views on current events in China, as well as his and his family's experiences since leaving Beijing.

RFE/RL: How has your transition to the United States been?

Chen Guangcheng: As far as cultural conflict is concerned, I haven't felt much of anything significant. Of course, there are things to acclimatize to, but I can get used to most of it. But the real difficulty has been in dealing with the ongoing effects of my treatment in China. For example, to this day, my bones have not healed in my foot, and psychologically there are things I can't even mention. It will take a really long time to thoroughly heal from that experience.

(...) [article here]

Saturday 20 April 2013

INDONESIA AND HUMAN RIGHTS

The Jakarta Post

DEMOCRATIC INDONESIA’S NO-MAN’S-LAND OF HUMAN RIGHTS

Budiono Kusumohamidjojo

The Jakarta Post, April 20, 2013

It has been almost 15 years since reformasi brought about a constitutional change to Indonesia, leading to shifts in various walks of life. High hopes were hedged on the comprehensive Article 28 of the amended 1945 Constitution, which promised better respect and protection for human rights, particularly for the powerless masses, prone as ever to the abuse of the powerful few.

Abuse, oppression, subjugation, torture and murder carried out under the New Order are still experienced by some. Discriminated groups, women and children have become the more soft targets of arbitrariness, while the state stays put and carries out the duties of government by omission.

We cannot help but ask from time to time whether the democratization process that was supposed to put an end to a more than three decades of authoritarianism deserves democracy as its end result. Soeharto ruled with a strong hand, always firm against those critical of his policies. Rebuilding the economy, improving the lives of the masses and helping the victims of grave misgovernment by former president Sukarno were too dear to Soeharto to let them become sidelined by intellectuals and elites, many of whom pretended to be defenders of the people.

(...) [article here]

Thursday 18 April 2013

KIM JONG-UN, MISSILES AND NUCLEAR ARMS

Bloomberg_logo

KIM WON’T TALK ON N KOREA’S NUCLEAR ARMS, DIA CHIEF SAYS

Tony Capaccio and Sangwon Yoon

Bloomberg, April 18, 2013

Dictator Kim Jong Un, “firmly in control” of the North Korean regime, isn’t prepared to negotiate about ending his nuclear and missile programs, according to the Pentagon’s top intelligence official.

North Korea is “no longer willing to negotiate over eliminating its nuclear and ballistic missile programs,” Army Lieutenant General Michael Flynn, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, said in testimony prepared for a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing later today.

While Kim’s threats of missile launches and nuclear tests “leave North Korea more isolated economically and diplomatically, we believe North Korea’s intent ultimately is to convince the United States of the futility of continued sanctions and force the U.S. back to negotiations on terms more favorable to North Korea,” Flynn wrote in a statement obtained by Bloomberg News.

Flynn’s testimony comes a day after Secretary of State John Kerry told the House Foreign Affairs Committee that the U.S. won’t “come to the table” for negotiations “without some pretty ironclad concept on how we’re going forward on the denuclearization.”

The DIA chief wrote that North Korea is “convinced of its need to possess nuclear weapons as a guarantor of its national security,” and “is more likely now to push for negotiations over security guarantees, a peace treaty and elimination of economic sanctions.”

(...) [article here]

Wednesday 17 April 2013

INDIA AND CHINA’S MILITARY

The Times of India

CHINA'S MILITARY WHITE PAPER PLAYS DOWN DISPUTE WITH INDIA

Saibal Dasgupta, TNN

The Times of India, April 17, 2013

BEIJING: China's military has issued a white paper blaming the US for causing tension in the Asia-Pacific region and naming Japan as a troublemaker. But the paper plays down the country's troubled relationship with India over boundary claims. It also reveals details of China's enormous military structure, with some of the information being released for the first time.

The report issued by the People's Liberation Army on Tuesday complained about "neighbouring countries" complicating and exacerbating tensions. Especially targeted were China's sea neighbours, including Japan, which the report accused of "making trouble over the Diaoyu islands".

"China still faces multiple and complicated security threats and challenges," said the white paper on 'The Diversified Employment of China's Armed Forces'.

There is little discussion about India in the paper and even joint exercises conducted between the military of the two countries have not been discussed in any detail. Military exchanges with China's neighbours such as Vietnam, South Korea and Pakistan are specifically mentioned.

"Some countries are strengthening their Asia-Pacific military alliances, expanding military presence in the region, and frequently making the situation there tenser," the paper said without taking any names. The obvious reference was to the expansion of US presence in the seas near South Korea, Vietnam and Japan.

(...) [article here]

Tuesday 16 April 2013

NK’S NEW THREATS

WashPost logo3

NORTH KOREA MARKS KIM IL SUNG BIRTHDAY, MAKES PRICKLY THREATS AND REFUSES TALKS WITH SEOUL

Associated Press

The Washington Post, April 16, 2013

PYONGYANG, North Korea — After a day of festivities to mark the 101st birthday of its first leader, North Korea on Tuesday offered prickly new rhetoric against the United States and South Korea, which are watching closely for signs whether it will conduct a medium-range missile test in defiance of international concerns.

State media said the Supreme Command of the Korean People’s Army issued an ultimatum demanding an apology from South Korea for “hostile acts” and threatening that unspecified retaliatory actions would happen at any time.

The statement, relayed through the KCNA state media agency, came after a day of festivities in North Korea’s capital that featured art performances, public dances and crowds thronging to giant bronze statues to pay homage to the late leader Kim Il Sung,

The renewed rhetoric was sparked by a protest by about 250 people in downtown Seoul, where effigies of Kim Il Sung and his late son and successor, Kim Jong Il, were burned. One protester carried a placard saying “Kim Jong Un Out,” referring to the third generation of Kim family ruler. Such protests are not unusual in South Korea and this one likely gave the North a pretext to react negatively to calls for joining in dialogue with its neighbors than an actual cause for retaliation.

The North’s statement said it would refuse any offers of talks with the South until it apologized for the “monstrous criminal act.” North Korea often denounces such protests, but rarely in the name of the Supreme Command, which is headed by Kim Il Sung’s grandson and North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong Un.

“If the puppet authorities truly want dialogue and negotiations, they should apologize for all anti-DPRK hostile acts, big and small, and show the compatriots their will to stop all these acts in practice,” the statement said. North Korea’s official name is the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, or DPRK.

Later, South Korean Defense Ministry spokesman Kim Min-seok said South Korea was closely monitoring North Korea’s moves and was ready for any attack.

The North’s threat is “regrettable,” Kim told reporters. “We will thoroughly and resolutely punish North Korea if it launches any provocation for whatever reason.”

(...) [article here]

Monday 15 April 2013

CHINA’S GDP GROWTH IN Q1

reuters-logo-dec_-2009-o

CHINA GROWTH RISKS IN FOCUS AS FIRST QUARTER DATA FALLS SHORT

Kevin Yao and Langi Chiang

Reuters, April 15, 2013

BEIJING (Reuters) - China's economic recovery unexpectedly stumbled in the first three months of 2013 with slowing factory output and investment spending forcing analysts to start slashing full-year forecasts despite official insistence that the outlook was favorable.

The world's second-biggest economy grew 7.7 percent in the first quarter from a year ago, slower than 7.9 percent hit in Q4 2012, below the Reuters consensus forecast of 8.0 percent and confounding expectations of a surprise uptick that emerged after surging credit and export data were published last week.

"This number may well explain why there was so much liquidity support in Q1," Tim Condon, head of Asian economic research at ING in Singapore, told Reuters.

"Industrial production is unexpectedly weak and that's the source of weakness in GDP. Based on this, the consensus forecasts for GDP are going to be headed lower and we'll certainly be looking at ours," Condon added.

RBS duly obliged, cutting its full year forecast to 7.8 percent from 8.4 percent before the data.

"This is both due to the impact of the weaker start of 2013 and because the Q1 data shows slower quarter-on-quarter growth momentum than expected," Louis Kuijs, chief China economist at RBS in Hong Kong, wrote in a note to clients.

(...) [article here]

Sunday 14 April 2013

NORTH KOREA: KERRY IN CHINA

KERRY OFFERS MISSILE DEFENSE CONCESSION

Seeks help from China in dealing with North Korea

Michael R. Gordon (NYT)

The Boston Globe, April 14, 2013

BEIJING — Secretary of State John Kerry flew to China on Saturday and offered a concession on missile defense meant to elicit China’s help in dealing with an increasingly recalcitrant and nuclear armed North Korea.

In a news conference after meetings with China’s top leaders, Kerry said the United States would reduce its missile defenses in Asia if North Korea abandoned its nuclear weapons program.

Kerry’s overture appeared aimed at addressing Chinese concerns that North Korea’s provocative actions were leading the United States to build up military strength in the region as China is boosting its own influence there.

‘‘On missile defense, we discussed absolutely why we have taken the steps that we have taken,’’ Kerry said, referring to efforts the United States is taking to defend Guam, Hawaii, and the United States’ allies in Asia against a potential North Korean missile attack. The United States has dispatched two ships capable of missile defense and said it would speed up land-based missile defenses for Guam.

‘‘Now obviously if the threat disappears — i.e. North Korea denuclearizes — the same imperative does not exist at that point of time for us to have that kind of robust forward leaning posture of defense,’’ he added. ‘‘It would be our hope in the long run, or better yet in short run, that we can address that.’’

(...) [article here]

Saturday 13 April 2013

NORTH KOREA’S LOGIC

WashPost logo3

BEHIND NORTH KOREA’S SURREAL THREATS IS A COMPLEX AND CURIOUS LOGIC

Associated Press

The Washington Post, April 13, 2013

SEOUL, South Korea — To the outside world, the talk often appears to border on the lunatic, with the poor, hungry and electricity-starved nation threatening to lay waste to America’s cities in an atomic firestorm, or to overrun South Korea in a lightning attack.

Enemy capitals, North Korea said, will be turned “into a sea of fire.” North Korea’s first strikes will be “a signal flare marking the start of a holy war.” Pyongyang’s nuclear arsenal is “mounted on launch pads, aimed at the windpipe of our enemies.”

And it’s not all talk. The profoundly isolated, totalitarian nation has launched two rockets over the past year. A February nuclear test resulted in still more U.N. sanctions. Another missile test may be in the planning stages.

But there is also a logic behind North Korea’s behavior, a logic steeped in internal politics, one family’s fear of losing control and the ways that a weak, poverty-wracked nation can extract concessions from some of the world’s most fearsome military powers.

It’s also steeped in another important fact: It works.

At various points over the past two decades, North Korea’s cycles of threats and belligerence have pressured the international community into providing billions of dollars in aid and, for a time, helped push South Korea’s government into improving ties.

Most importantly to Pyongyang, it has helped the Kim family remain in power decades after the fall of its patron, the Soviet Union, and long after North Korea had become an international pariah. Now the third generation of Kims, the baby-faced Kim Jong Un, is warning the world that it may soon face the wrath of Pyongyang. If the virulence of Kim Jong Un’s threats have come as a surprise, he appears largely to be following in his father’s diplomatic footsteps.

(...) [article here]

Friday 12 April 2013

NUCLEAR MISSILES IN NK?

Reuters DEF

U.S. AGENCY SAYS NORTH KOREA HAS NUCLEAR WEAPON BUT SEEN UNLIKELY

Arshad Mohammed

Reuters, April 12, 2013

SEOUL (Reuters) - A U.S. government agency said North Korea has a nuclear weapon it can mount on a missile, adding an ominous dimension to tensions on the Korean peninsula as U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry arrived for talks in Seoul on Friday.

However, the assessment by the Pentagon's Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) was swiftly dismissed by several U.S. officials and South Korea.

Asked if war was imminent, a U.S. official in South Korea said: "Not at all".

Washington's greatest concern, the official said, was the possibility of unexpected developments linked to the inexperience of North Korea's 30-year-old leader, Kim Jong-un.

"Kim Jong-un's youth and inexperience make him very vulnerable to miscalculation. Our greatest concern is a miscalculation and where that may lead," said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

"We have seen no indications of massive troop movements, or troops massing on the border, or massive exercises or anything like that that would back up any of the rhetoric that is going on."

(...) [article here]

Thursday 11 April 2013

STANDBY IN NORTH KOREA

Time

NORTH KOREA SAYS ‘STRIKING MEANS’ ON STANDBY

Jean H. Lee (AP)

Time, April 11, 2013

(PYONGYANG, North Korea) — A North Korean agency that deals with relations with South Korea claims Pyongyang has “powerful striking means” on standby for a launch amid speculation in Seoul and Washington that the country is preparing to test a mid-range missile.

The Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland also said Thursday it has entered coordinates for targets. But it didn’t elaborate on what it meant. The statement follows a recent torrent of warlike rhetoric seen as an effort to raise fears and pressure outside governments into policy changes.

The comments would carry more weight if they came from a military-related agency.

Analysts believe North Korea is extremely unlikely to stage an attack. But outside officials have said Pyongyang appears to be preparing to test-fly a missile that could reach Guam.

As neighboring nations kept a close eye on missile movements in North Korea, people in the country’s capital began celebrating a series of April holidays, including the anniversary Thursday of their leader’s appointment as head of the ruling Worker’s Party.

Bracing for what South Korea’s foreign minister warned could be a test-fire of a medium-range missile, Seoul deployed three naval destroyers, an early warning surveillance aircraft and a land-based radar system, a Defense Ministry official said in Seoul, speaking on condition of anonymity in line with department rules.

(...) [article here]

Tuesday 9 April 2013

NK WARNS FOREIGNERS IN SK

The Guardian

NORTH KOREA WARNS FOREIGNERS TO LEAVE SOUTH

Regime says visitors might get hurt if war starts, while workers boycott joint factories and missile test talk heightens

Justin McCurry

The Guardian, April 9, 2013

As the world waits to see if North Korea launches a ballistic missile, the regime has attempted to raise tensions further, warning foreigners living in South Korea to make evacuation plans because the peninsula is on the brink of war.

"We do not wish harm on foreigners in South Korea should there be a war," the official KCNA news agency quoted an official from a North Korean organisation calling itself Korea Asia-Pacific Peace Committee as saying.

The KCNA report did not offer details and there are reportedly no signs of a military buildup near the border dividing the Korean peninsula, located less than 40 miles from the South Korean capital, Seoul.

Analysts noted that Pyongyang had issued similar threats in the past, adding that this latest warning is designed to elicit aid and political concessions from Seoul and Washington.

Amid the bluster of recent weeks – during which the North has threatened to launch a nuclear attack on the US – the regime appears to have made good on its threat to withdraw its workers from the Kaesong industrial complex.

(...) [article here]

Monday 8 April 2013

NORTH KOREA AND JAPAN

economic_times

JAPAN INCREASINGLY NERVOUS ABOUT NORTH KOREA NUKES

AP

The Economic Times, April 8, 2013

TOKYO: It's easy to write off North Korean threats to strike the United States with a nuclear-tipped missile as bluster: it has never demonstrated the capability to deploy a missile that could reach the Pacific island of Guam let alone the mainland U.S.

But what about Japan?

Though it remains a highly unlikely scenario, Japanese officials have long feared that if North Korea ever decides to play its nuclear card it has not only the means but several potential motives for launching an attack on Tokyo or major U.S. military installations on Japan's main island. And while a conventional missile attack is far more likely, Tokyo is taking North Korea's nuclear rhetoric seriously.

On Monday, amid reports North Korea is preparing a missile launch or another nuclear test, Japanese officials said they have stepped up measures to ensure the nation's safety. Japanese media reported over the weekend that the defense minister has put destroyers with missile interception systems on alert to shoot down any missile or missile debris that appears to be headed for Japanese territory.

``We are doing all we can to protect the safety of our nation,'' said chief Cabinet spokesman Yoshihide Suga, though he and defense ministry officials refused to confirm the reports about the naval alert, saying they do not want to ``show their cards'' to North Korea.

(...) [article here]

Sunday 7 April 2013

MISSILE LAUNCH THIS WEEK

The New York Times OK

SOUTH KOREA EXPECTS MISSILE LAUNCH BY NORTH

Choe Sang-hun

The New York Times, April 7, 2013

SEOUL, South Korea — The South Korean government warned on Sunday that the North might launch a missile later this week, while a top military leader postponed a scheduled trip to Washington, citing escalating tensions on the peninsula.

The warning by Kim Jang-soo, director of national security for President Park Geun-hye, came three days after the South Korea’s defense minister said that the North had moved to its east coast a missile with a “considerable range” but not capable of reaching the mainland United States.

The missile was widely believed to be the Musudan, which the South Korean military says can travel “more than” 3,000 kilometers or 1,864 miles. But South Korean media and analysts say the missile can extend its range to 4,000 kilometers or 2,490 miles, which would put American bases in Guam within its reach.

Mr. Kim said that the North Korean authorities had told foreign embassies in

Pyongyang to inform them by Wednesday whether they needed assistance in evacuating should they wish to because of rising tensions on the peninsula.

The North gave a similar warning to some of the 123 South Korean factories in the joint industry park in the North Korean city of Kaesong, Mr. Kim said. For a fifth consecutive day, North Korea blocked South Korean workers and supplies from entering the factory park, forcing 13 plants to stop production as of Sunday.

(...) [article here]

Saturday 6 April 2013

NORTH KOREA, SOUTH KOREA AND JAPAN

The Indian Express

COULD NORTH KOREA HIT ITS NEIGHBORS WITH NUKES?

The Indian Express, April 6, 2013

Washington: North Korea is widely recognised as being years away from perfecting the technology to back up its bold threats of a pre-emptive strike on the United States. But some nuclear experts say it might have the know-how to fire a nuclear-tipped missile at South Korea and Japan, which host U.S. military bases.

No one can tell with any certainty how much technological progress North Korea has made, aside from perhaps a few people close to its secretive leadership. And it is highly unlikely that Pyongyang would launch such an attack, because the retaliation would be devastating.

The North's third nuclear test on Feb. 12, which prompted the toughest U.N. Security Council sanctions yet against Pyongyang, is presumed to have advanced its ability to miniaturize a nuclear device. And experts say it's easier to design a nuclear warhead that works on a shorter-range missile than one for an intercontinental missile that could target the U.S.

The assessment of David Albright at the Institute for Science and International Security think tank is that North Korea has the capability to mount a warhead on its Nodong missile, which has a range of 800 miles (1,280 kilometers) and could hit South Korea and most of Japan. But he cautioned in his analysis, published after the latest nuclear test, that it is an uncertain estimate, and the warhead's reliability remains unclear.

Albright contends that the experience of Pakistan could serve as precedent. Pakistan bought the Nodong from North Korea after its first flight test in 1993, then adapted and produced it for its own use. Pakistan, which conducted its first nuclear test in 1998, is said to have taken less than 10 years to miniaturize a warhead before that test, Albright said.

North Korea also obtained technology from the trafficking network of A.Q. Khan, a disgraced pioneer of Pakistan's nuclear program, acquiring centrifuges for enriching uranium. According to the Congressional Research Service, Khan may also have supplied a Chinese-origin nuclear weapon design he provided to Libya and Iran, which could have helped the North in developing a warhead for a ballistic missile.

(...) [article here]

Friday 5 April 2013

NK AND THE SOUTH KOREAN ECONOMY

The New York Times

TENSIONS WITH NORTH KOREA UNSETTLE SOUTH’S ECONOMY

Choe Sang-hun

The New York Times, April 5, 2013

SEOUL — North Korea’s torrent of threats — and the matching show of military power and political resolve from the United States and South Korea — began showing signs of unsettling foreign investors’ confidence Friday.

The development magnified the challenge Seoul and Washington face. The two powers are trying to show the North’s novice leader, Kim Jong-un, that they will not be blackmailed by his bluff and bluster. But at the same time, they do not want to escalate the tensions to an extent that they hurt the South Korean economy, the pride of the local population here, and Park Geun-hye’s political standing at home.

“In the past, North Korea-related events had little impact or the markets recovered quickly,” the South’s vice finance minister, Choo Kyung-ho, told a meeting of top finance officials on Friday. “But recent threats from North Korea are stronger and the impact may therefore not disappear quickly.”

His comment came hours after General Motors’ chief executive, Dan Akerson, underscored the increased worry by saying that his company was making contingency plans for employee safety at its South Korean plants and that further increases in tensions would even prompt GM to look at moving production elsewhere long term. In an interview with CNBC, he said, “If there were something to happen in Korea, it’s going to affect our entire industry, not just General Motors.”

(...) [article here]