Saturday 30 April 2011

FROM BRICs TO BRICS

The Hindu

BRICS SET TO OUTSHINE IBSA?

When BRICS speaks, its views are bound to receive much greater notice than those of IBSA. If IBSA does not become stronger, it will become irrelevant.

Rajiv Bhatia

The Hindu, April 30, 2011

In international politics, nations form new groupings or compete to join existing ones, sustain them for a while or long, and then abandon them, though seldom closing them formally. Following the recent summit of leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS), it is worth pondering what lies in store for the IBSA Dialogue Forum with India, Brazil and South Africa as its members.

The two groupings

Last April, before the second BRIC summit and the fourth IBSA summit, the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) stated that BRIC was “still in a nascent stage,” whereas IBSA, as “the older grouping,” was flourishing well. This April, however, the perception has changed. According to an MEA official, BRICS has “a very good future.” He added that South Africa's entry into BRIC, transforming it into BRICS, would not “diminish IBSA in any way.” Is that a given or veiled signal that a serious internal debate is now under way to measure the relative utility, both actual and potential, of the two groupings?

Ironically, South Africa, which invested enormous diplomatic capital to secure its entry into BRIC, will host the next IBSA summit in 2011. And India, which has been in the forefront to project IBSA as a “unique” organisation of leading democracies, pluralist societies and emerging economies from three different continents, will host the BRICS summit in 2012.

(...) [artículo aquí]

Friday 29 April 2011

CHINA’S DEMOGRAPHICS

UPI

CHINA POPULATION AGING, URBANIZING

UPI, April 29, 2011

BEIJING, April 29 (UPI) -- The percentage of aging people among China's population of 1.4 billion is rising rapidly, as is the percentage of those living in urban centers, officials said.

The 2010 census indicates 13.26 percent of china's population were at least 60 years old, up 2.93 percentage points from 2000, Ma Jiantang, head of the National Bureau of Statistics said, the state-run Xinhua news agency reported.

Ma said the country's birthrate, however, remains low. The current total population is up only 73.9 million from 2000.

The percentage of those 14 or younger fell sharply to 16.6 percent of the total, from 22.89 percent in 2000.

China's 2010 urban population was 665.57 million, or 49.68 percent of the total, up from 36.22 percent in 2000.

Wang Feng, head of the Center for Public Policy at Tsinghua University in Beijing, told The New York Times the numbers show China "has completely turned a page in its demographic history," with very low fertility, quite low mortality and an increasingly urbanized population.

(...) [artículo aquí]

Thursday 28 April 2011

CHINA’S ECONOMY (CQU, APRIL 2011)

The World Bank

CHINA’S ECONOMIC OUTLOOK REMAINS FAVORABLE, BUT FURTHER MACRO POLICY NORMALIZATION IS NEEDED

The World Bank, Press Release No: 2011/451/EAP

April 28, 2011

BEIJING, April 28, 2011 – China’s economic outlook remains broadly favorable with real GDP growth projected at 9.3 percent in 2011 and 8.7 percent in 2012, but risks on inflation and the property market call for full normalization of the macroeconomic stance to keep growth on track, according to the World Bank’s latest China Quarterly Update released today.

“Headwind from a normalized macroeconomic stance, inflation, and somewhat slower global growth is likely to be partly offset by solid corporate investment and a still robust labor market,” says Ardo Hansson, Lead Economist for China. “In all, with a broadly neutral contribution of net trade, we now project China’s real GDP growth at 9.3 percent in 2011 and 8.7 percent in 2012.”

(...) [artículo aquí]

Wednesday 27 April 2011

CHINA AND THE US IN THE 2020s

economic_times

IS CHINA OVERTAKING AMERICA DESPITE POLITICAL COMPLICATIONS, UNSUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC POLICIES?

Joseph S. Nye

The Economic Times, April 27, 2011

The 21st century is witnessing Asia's return to what might be considered its historical proportions of the world's population and economy. In 1800, Asia represented more than half of global population and output. By 1900, it represented only 20% of world output - not because something bad happened in Asia, but rather because the Industrial Revolution had transformed Europe and North America into the world's workshop.

Asia's recovery began with Japan, then moved to South Korea and on to Southeast Asia, beginning with Singapore and Malaysia. Now the recovery is focussed on China, and increasingly involves India , lifting hundreds of millions of people out of poverty in the process.

This change, however, is also creating anxieties about shifting power relations among states. In 2010, China passed Japan to become the world's second largest economy. Indeed, the investment bank Goldman Sachs expects the Chinese economy's total size to surpass that of the United States by 2027.

But, even if overall Chinese GDP reaches parity with that of the US in the 2020s, the two economies will not be equal in composition. China would still have a vast underdeveloped countryside. Assuming 6% Chinese GDP growth and only 2% US growth after 2030, China would not equal the US in terms of per capita income - a better measure of an economy's sophistication - until sometime near the second half of the century.

(...) [artículo aquí]

Tuesday 26 April 2011

HUMAN RIGHTS IN CHINA

Reuters DEF

CHINA WARNS AGAINST "INTERFERENCE" AHEAD OF U.S. RIGHTS TALKS

Chris Buckley

Reuters, April 26, 2011

BEIJING (Reuters) - The Chinese government warned on Tuesday against using human rights disputes as what it called a tool to meddle, ahead of talks with the United States that will focus on complaints about Beijing's crackdown on dissent.

The two-day-long human rights dialogue, from Wednesday, with U.S. Assistant Secretary for Democracy, Human Rights and Labor Michael Posner and other Washington officials, will come at a sensitive time over the issue, long a sore point with Beijing.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei said his government was willing to discuss rights issues with the United States as equals. But he warned against what Beijing sees as Western over-reaching.

"When it comes to differences between China and the United States over human rights, the two sides can enhance mutual understanding on a basis of equality and mutual respect," Hong told a regular news conference.

"We oppose any country using human rights issues as an excuse to interfere in China's domestic affairs."

(...) [artículo aquí]

Monday 25 April 2011

AI WEIWEI

El Pais logo def

LIBERTAD PARA AI WEIWEI

La enorme presencia pública del artista le ha permitido defender los derechos humanos en su país y mostrar la incompetencia de China ante determinados desastres. El régimen ha decidido silenciarlo de manera brutal

Salman Rushdie

El País, 25 de abril de 2011

Todo el mundo sabe que para un artista la gran sala de turbinas de la Tate Modern londinense, antes central eléctrica, es un espacio difícil de llenar con autoridad. Su inmensidad puede empequeñecer la imaginación de cualquier artista contemporáneo, pero no la de una selecta tribu, que comprende los misterios de la escala y sabe decir algo interesante cuando además hay que expresarlo sirviéndose de un formato enorme. En su momento, la gigantesca araña de Louise Bourgeois se alzó amenazadora en esta sala y el Marsyas de Anish Kapoor, una enorme figura hueca, similar a una trompeta y hecha de un material extensible que parecía una piel desollada, se impuso a ella majestuosamente.

En octubre pasado, el destacado artista chino Ai Weiwei cubrió el suelo de esa sala con su instalación Pipas de girasol: 100 millones de diminutos objetos de porcelana, todos ellos distintos y fabricados por maestros artesanos. Pipas de girasol es una alfombra viva, inabarcable, inexplicable y, en el mejor sentido surrealista, extraña. La idea era que se caminara sobre las pipas, pero la extrañeza volvió a hacer su aparición. Se descubrió que al pisarlas desprendían un polvo finísimo que podía dañar los pulmones. Parece que esos símbolos de la vida podían ser peligrosos para los seres vivos. El montaje se acordonó y los visitantes se vieron obligados a caminar con cuidado a su alrededor.

(...) [artículo aquí]

Friday 15 April 2011

CHINA Q1 GROWTH: 9.7%

China RealTime ReportECONOMISTS REACT: CHINA’S INFLATION, GROWTH

China RealTime Report, April 15, 2011

China’s economic growth slowed slightly in the first quarter, but inflation accelerated to a nearly three-year high in March. The country’s gross domestic product rose 9.7% from a year earlier in the first quarter, data released Friday by the National Bureau of Statistics show, down marginally from the 9.8% expansion in the fourth quarter of 2010. Meanwhile, the consumer price index rose 5.4% from a year earlier in March, up from 4.9% in February and the fastest since July 2008. Economists react:

The Chinese economy is not slowing as planned, or desired, with GDP expanding 9.7% year-on-year in the first quarter to 9.63 trillion yuan. The strong economic performance through Q1, despite the myriad tightening measures put in place over the past six months, should give policymakers confidence to more aggressively attack inflation and its root causes. Indeed, with CPI jumping to a 32-month high, it is not hard to argue for further tightening. —Alistair Thornton and Xianfang Ren, IHS Global Insight

(...) [artículo aquí]

Thursday 14 April 2011

COMMODITY PRICES

Bloomberg_logo

BRICS LEADERS SAY INCREASING COMMODITY PRICES POSE THREAT TO GLOBAL GROWTH

Bloomberg, April 14, 2011

The leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa said excessively volatile commodity prices pose a threat to the global economy and called for greater regulation of derivatives markets.

Volatility “poses new risks for the ongoing recovery of the world economy,” the leaders said, according to a communique from their summit in the Chinese resort of Sanya. The BRICS, as the five are known, also called for greater vigilance over the impact of the flow of capital from developed economies into emerging markets and agreed on a plan to make more loans in local currencies.

Rising food and fuel prices are pressuring importers such as China and India to hold down prices for their 2.6 billion people. Exporting countries such as Brazil, Russia and South Africa are benefiting from the trade, yet are concerned that over-reliance on resources will stifle diversification of their economies, leaving them vulnerable should demand drop.

“The fiscal outlook for emerging economies is more favorable, but this reflects in part the tailwinds of high asset and commodity prices, low interest rates and strong capital inflows,” the International Monetary Fund said in a report this month. A “reversal could leave fiscal positions exposed.”

(...) [artículo aquí]

Wednesday 13 April 2011

SOCIAL STABILITY AND THE LAW IN CHINA

asia_times_logo OK

WARNINGS PUT 'STABILITY' ABOVE THE LAW

Michael Standaert

Asia Times, April 13, 2011

HONG KONG - There is no "Jasmine" revolution in China, but the Chinese government might be creating the seeds for one through its elevation of social stability above the rule of law, some experts say.

Over the past two months, authorities have taken advantage of anonymous calls for revolution first posted on overseas Chinese websites to launch an intense crackdown that has led to harsh sentences, detentions, disappearances and general harassment of lawyers, activists and writers with liberal voices that the government fears could spark social instability.

On April 3, well-known artist and activist Ai Weiwei was detained at Beijing International Airport and has not been heard from since, according to his associates - leaving many analysts to speculate that his detention is a signal to those in Chinese society who may have felt "untouchable" during the recent crackdown, that they should not step out of line.

(...) [artículo aquí]

Tuesday 12 April 2011

HIT TO JAPAN’S ECONOMY

Bloomberg_logo

JAPAN SEES GREATER HIT TO ECONOMY AS ITS NUCLEAR CRISIS DEEPENS

Aki Ito and Keiko Ujikane

Bloomberg, April 12, 2011

Japan’s Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Kaoru Yosano said the March 11 earthquake may result in a larger hit to the economy than previously seen, indicating a greater appetite for stimulus one month after the disaster.

“The damage to the economy may be bigger than we initially expected,” Yosano told reporters today in Tokyo. “In addition to disruptions in the supply chain, we have the added seriousness of the situation with the nuclear power plant,” he said, referring to the Fukushima Dai-Ichi crisis that officials today said has a severity rating matching Chernobyl in 1986.

Prime Minister Naoto Kan may need to turn to additional debt sales or to tax increases in coming months, given opposition at the central bank to funding deficit spending. A record of the Bank of Japan's meeting last month showed today that officials refrained from any discussion of specific additional monetary stimulus they would be prepared to endorse.

(...) [artículo aquí]

Monday 11 April 2011

CHERRY BLOSSOMS

Reuters DEF

JAPAN'S BELOVED CHERRY BLOSSOMS HELP DISPEL SOME DISASTER GLOOM

Paul Eckert

Reuters, April 11, 2011

TOKYO (Reuters) - After the earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear disaster struck last month, Japanese were asked to scrap celebrations for the beloved cherry blossom season and practice self-restraint.

But as the annual pink wave that heralds spring rolled up the Japanese archipelago to Tokyo this weekend, the campaign for "jishuku" lost out to appeals to shake off the funereal mood and partake in traditional, rice wine-fuelled "sakura" parties, for the sake of the nation's psyche, and economy.

"Too much self-restraint will strip away peace of mind and plenitude from everyday life, and destroy the nation's vitality. This will drag down economic activity, which will hinder recovery efforts in disaster areas," said the conservative Yomiuri Shimbun in an editorial.

Far from Tokyo, politicians and businessmen in the shattered cities of northern Japan are saying the same thing, prompted by worries that a gloomy nation will take much longer to recover from the psychological and economical effects of the disaster.

Japanese officials had cancelled rock concerts, sporting events and other entertainment after the March 11 quake.

(...) [artículo aquí]

Sunday 10 April 2011

A TOKYO EARTHQUAKE?

International Business Times

WHAT IF TOKYO IS HIT BY MASSIVE EARTHQUAKE?

International Business Times, April 10, 2011

Imagine if more than 10,000 people dead, 100,000 injured, one million buildings destroyed, many millions forced to evacuate and one-fifth of the Japanese economy wiped out.

That's the scenario forecast if a huge magnitude 7.3 earthquake hits Japan's capital of Tokyo, a disaster experts say has a 70 percent risk of occurring over the next 30 years.

Tokyo planners have been working for decades to mitigate the damage from a quake of that scale and the country has some of the world's strictest quake-resistance building standards.

But a month after a magnitude 9.0 earthquake -- the biggest in Japan's recorded history -- and huge tsunami devastated northeast Japan, some say it's time to prepare for far worse.

Tokyo had a tiny taste of what would happen when the March 11 quake, its epicenter about 300 km (180 miles) northeast, halted trains, stranded commuters, snarled phone communication, caused power shortages and within hours saw stores stripped of daily necessities such as bread and milk.

(...) [artículo aquí]

Saturday 9 April 2011

JAPAN AND INFORMATION

The Japan Times

WITH THE WORLD LOOKING IN, JAPAN NEEDS TO SPEAK OUT

Kumi Sato and Michael J. Alfant

The Japan Times, April 9, 2011

Japan is known as having some the world's most developed earthquake- and tsunami-detection systems. However, the destruction caused on March 11 amply illustrated what can happen even when it is well prepared for crises.

Imagine what happens in a crisis when you are not well prepared. We believe that this disaster has illustrated Japan's lack of preparedness in a different sense: crisis communication.

While it must be said that DPJ politicians have been a constant fixture on TV since the earthquake and tsunami hit, overall Japan has not done a good job of communicating the situation on the ground (especially that of Tokyo) to the rest of the world.

The lack of preparedness and the lack of a holistic strategy to disseminate accurate information to outside audiences — who watched in horror as the pictures of towns being reduced to rubble and explosions at Fukushima's nuclear power plant were beamed across the world — quickly resulted in a chaotic blur of misinformation and half truths being spread across rolling news channels and the Internet.

(...) [artículo aquí]

Friday 8 April 2011

ANTI-NUCLEAR MOVEMENT IN JAPAN

Reuters DEF

JAPAN ANTI-NUCLEAR MOVEMENT GAINS TRACTION AS CRISIS DRAGS ON

Chisa Fujioka

Reuters, April 8, 2011

TOKYO - Japan's anti-nuclear movement, small and ignored by the general public, is gaining traction as a crisis at a tsunami-stricken nuclear power plant drags on for weeks with no clear end in sight.

The growing debate will make it difficult for the government to meet its target securing 50 percent of national electricty from nuclear power by 2030, up from 30 percent now.

The public has watched nervously as engineers battle radiation leaks, hydrogen explosions and overheating fuel rods at the Fukushima Daiichi plant on the northeast coast after it was hit by a 9.0 magnitude earthquake and tsunami on March 11.

With updates on the world's worst nuclear disaster since Chernobyl in 1986 now daily fare on TV, more Japanese are questioning the safety of the quake-prone country's 54 nuclear reactors and the government's plans to build more.

"As a person who has had a pro-nuclear stance, I'm totally at a loss at the moment whether we should promote Japan's nuclear policy," Masayoshi Yoshino, an MP from Fukushima prefecture where the Daiichi plant is located, told a news conference this week.

(...) [artículo aquí]

Thursday 7 April 2011

CHINA RISING

Project Syndicate

IS CHINA OVERTAKING AMERICA?

Joseph S. Nye

Project Syndicate, April 7, 2011

CAMBRIDGE – The twenty-first century is witnessing Asia’s return to what might be considered its historical proportions of the world’s population and economy. In 1800, Asia represented more than half of global population and output. By 1900, it represented only 20% of world output – not because something bad happened in Asia, but rather because the Industrial Revolution had transformed Europe and North America into the world’s workshop.

Asia’s recovery began with Japan, then moved to South Korea and on to Southeast Asia, beginning with Singapore and Malaysia. Now the recovery is focused on China, and increasingly involves India, lifting hundreds of millions of people out of poverty in the process.

(...) [artículo aquí]

Wednesday 6 April 2011

DEVELOPING ASIA

The Asset

INFLATION, GEOPOLITICAL TURMOIL LOOM OVER DEVELOPING ASIA’S GROWTH

Developing Asia continues its firm recovery from the global financial crisis, but is projected to post slower GDP growth rates in 2011 and 2012, compared with 2010. This comes as the region faces challenges in fighting inflation, as well as geopolitical uncertainties and the need to develop new sources of growth.

Chito Santiago

The Asset, April 6, 2011

In the latest annual economic publication by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), Asian Development Outlook 2011 released on April 6, it forecasts a regional GDP growth of 7.8 percent in 2011 and 7.7 percent in 2012 – lower than the nine percent increase achieved in 2010.

“Developing Asia, having shown resilience throughout the global recession, is now consolidating its recovery, and the rapid expansion in the region’s two giants – China and India – will continue to lift regional and global growth,” says ADB chief economist Changyong Rhee.

Rhee warns that rising food and oil prices, stoked by the upheaval in the Middle East and North Africa, along with the recent emergency in Japan, present a potential threat to sustained, inclusive growth. Inflation will need to be carefully managed using a mix of policy measures, including more flexible exchange rate management and coordinated capital controls, rather than simply relying on tighter monetary policy.

The report notes that after expanding at 4.4 percent in 2010, consumer prices are set to accelerate further to 5.3 percent in 2011, before easing back slightly to 4.6 percent in 2012. “Developing Asia is home to two-thirds of the world’s poor and it is they who are most vulnerable to the effects of price increases,” says Rhee. “Policy makers must, therefore, consider pre-emptive action to control inflation before it accelerates.”

(...) [artículo aquí]

Tuesday 5 April 2011

INFLATION

Asia Sentinel

THE SPECTRE OF INFLATION IN ASIA

It isn't just China and India – most of Southeast Asia will be hit

Asia Sentinel, April 5, 2011

Almost all of Asia is behind the inflation curve. And blaming US quantitative easing makes little sense when most of these countries – not just China – have been continuing to mop up US treasuries and other low-yield western debt, rather than follow policies which would damp inflation but might harm exports.

Consumer price inflation hit 5 percent in Singapore in February. Given the city's tight fiscal policy and rising currency – the US dollar has declined from S$1.40 to S$1.26 over the past year – one can expect that inflation in Asia is becoming ever more deeply ingrained. For sure, Singapore's inflation spike may prove a partly temporary, driven by one-off local factors as much as international ones. Still, for the full year it now looks sure to be at the top end of the 3-4 percent official forecast range. Meanwhile savers continue to lose out thanks to interest rates of just 0.3 percent on savings deposits and with a 10-year government bond yield just under 3 percent.

(...) [artículo aquí]

Friday 1 April 2011

SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK FOR JAPAN

Reuters DEF

JAPAN'S SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK EXTREMELY CHALLENGING: UBS ASIA CO-CEO

Denny Thomas and Elzio Barreto

Reuters, April 1, 2011

HONG KONG, April 1 (Reuters) - Japan faces an extremely challenging environment in coming months, although the country will recover quickly from the crisis triggered by last month's disastrous earthquake, said UBS Asia-Pacific co-Chief Executive Alex Wilmot-Sitwell.

"The outlook for Japan in the short term is going to be extremely challenging," Wilmot-Sitwell told a forum at the bank's Hong Kong headquarters on Friday.

(...) [artículo aquí]