ESCAPE FROM THE GLOBAL CREDIT CRUNCH IN INDIA
Asian economic progress may have faltered, admits James Daley, but it is still on course
James Daley
The Independent, May 3, 2008
The seemingly unstoppable Asian growth story finally suffered its first major setback during the first months of 2008 as nerves about a global economic slowdown got the better of investors in India, China and the rest of the region.
In China, markets fell by 25 per cent during the first quarter, while in India, they dropped by 23 per cent – and in the weeks since, uncertainty has prevailed as analysts, investors and commentators have argued the toss over whether the large emerging economies have "decoupled" from the West, or whether they are still vulnerable in the face of a developed world recession.
Historically, emerging markets have always been hit hard by recessions in the US and Europe, as these regions have been their biggest export customers. This time round, however, some argue that the emerging economies' momentum is unstoppable – predicting that these countries will continue to register record growth rates, regardless of how bad a time the US economy has.
Although much of the focus within this debate has been on China – which has been enjoying annual growth rates of more than 10 per cent in recent years and is now the fourth largest economy in the world (behind the USA, Japan and Germany) – the arguments in favour of decoupling are even stronger in India, which relies far less on the West than some of its emerging peers.
(...) [artículo aquí]
Asian economic progress may have faltered, admits James Daley, but it is still on course
James Daley
The Independent, May 3, 2008
The seemingly unstoppable Asian growth story finally suffered its first major setback during the first months of 2008 as nerves about a global economic slowdown got the better of investors in India, China and the rest of the region.
In China, markets fell by 25 per cent during the first quarter, while in India, they dropped by 23 per cent – and in the weeks since, uncertainty has prevailed as analysts, investors and commentators have argued the toss over whether the large emerging economies have "decoupled" from the West, or whether they are still vulnerable in the face of a developed world recession.
Historically, emerging markets have always been hit hard by recessions in the US and Europe, as these regions have been their biggest export customers. This time round, however, some argue that the emerging economies' momentum is unstoppable – predicting that these countries will continue to register record growth rates, regardless of how bad a time the US economy has.
Although much of the focus within this debate has been on China – which has been enjoying annual growth rates of more than 10 per cent in recent years and is now the fourth largest economy in the world (behind the USA, Japan and Germany) – the arguments in favour of decoupling are even stronger in India, which relies far less on the West than some of its emerging peers.
(...) [artículo aquí]
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