Tuesday 2 September 2008


JAPAN: NEW LEADER, LITTLE CHANGE

With a recession looming, will Fukuda's surprise resignation set the stage for economic reform, or will it be more of the same?

Ian Rowley

Business Week, September 2, 2008

Yasuo Fukuda's surprise resignation was perhaps the most interesting thing about his 11-month stint as Japan's Prime Minister. A lot like the tenure of his predecessor, Shinzo Abe, who quit suddenly after barely a year in charge last September citing ill health, Fukuda's short-lived reign was characterized by a weakening economy, stumbling stock prices, and political deadlock. And Fukuda's response to reporters' questions following his resignation announcement highlighted the extent to which he, like Abe before him, lacked the common touch (BusinessWeek.com, 9/1/08).

At a time when Japan is edging toward its first recession in six years, will a new face make much of a difference? While the painful days of the "lost decade"—the period after the collapse of the Japanese bubble economy in 1989—are long gone, Japan could do with a jolt. Workers' confidence in the economy, which shrank 0.6% in the last quarter, is at an eight-year low according to government figures, and Japan came in last out of 23 countries in a recent international survey of employee ambition by British firm FDS International. Inflation, at 2.4%, is touching 10-year highs and wages are failing to keep pace.

The short-term prognosis is for more of the same. The hot favorite to succeed Fukuda is ruling Liberal Democratic Party Secretary-General Taro Aso. An internal LDP election will take place later this month. "I would not deny that I am fit for [the post]," Aso told reporters after Fukuda quit. At 67, four years younger than Fukuda, Aso isn't exactly a fresh face. Like Fukuda, he is a very experienced LDP campaigner whose previous roles include Minister of Foreign Affairs and a host of other cabinet posts.

(...) [artículo aquí]

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