CHINA'S ECONOMIC GROWTH MAY SLUMP AS SPENDING COMES TOO LATE
Paul Panckhurst and Li Yanping
Bloomberg, November 8, 2008
China's economy may expand at the slowest pace in nearly two decades next year as demand for exports slumps in the U.S. and Europe and government spending fails to bridge the gap.
Gross domestic product may advance 7.5 percent or less, the weakest since 1990, according to estimates by Credit Suisse AG, UBS AG and Deutsche Bank AG. Royal Bank of Scotland Plc predicts the economy will grow 8 percent next year, while 5 percent “can't be ruled out.”
China hasn't yet ramped up spending on railways, roads, and low-cost housing by enough to stop a slowing economy from cooling more, economists said. At stake is the contribution to global growth -- 27 percent last year -- that Premier Wen Jiabao says is the nation's way of helping the world through the financial crisis.
“The government's fiscal stimulus plan may not come in time to avert a deeper economic slowdown,” said Ha Jiming, chief economist at China International Capital Corp in Beijing. Growth may be 7.3 percent next year, he said.
Indicators from auto sales to power consumption and export orders are pointing down and a slump in the property market is also threatening growth.
“I'm getting pretty worried,” said Paul Cavey, an economist at Macquarie Securities Ltd. in Hong Kong. “It really looks like things are slowing down quite sharply and there's nothing in the works that can turn it around in the next six months or so.”
Paul Panckhurst and Li Yanping
Bloomberg, November 8, 2008
China's economy may expand at the slowest pace in nearly two decades next year as demand for exports slumps in the U.S. and Europe and government spending fails to bridge the gap.
Gross domestic product may advance 7.5 percent or less, the weakest since 1990, according to estimates by Credit Suisse AG, UBS AG and Deutsche Bank AG. Royal Bank of Scotland Plc predicts the economy will grow 8 percent next year, while 5 percent “can't be ruled out.”
China hasn't yet ramped up spending on railways, roads, and low-cost housing by enough to stop a slowing economy from cooling more, economists said. At stake is the contribution to global growth -- 27 percent last year -- that Premier Wen Jiabao says is the nation's way of helping the world through the financial crisis.
“The government's fiscal stimulus plan may not come in time to avert a deeper economic slowdown,” said Ha Jiming, chief economist at China International Capital Corp in Beijing. Growth may be 7.3 percent next year, he said.
Indicators from auto sales to power consumption and export orders are pointing down and a slump in the property market is also threatening growth.
“I'm getting pretty worried,” said Paul Cavey, an economist at Macquarie Securities Ltd. in Hong Kong. “It really looks like things are slowing down quite sharply and there's nothing in the works that can turn it around in the next six months or so.”
(...) [artículo aquí]
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment