CHINA ECONOMY MAY RECOVER IN FIRST HALF, SU NING SAYS
Zhang Dingmin and Rong Feiwen
Bloomberg, March 3, 2009
China’s economy, the world’s third biggest, is “very likely” to recover in the first half of 2009, central bank Vice Governor Su Ning said in Beijing.
“We’re very confident,” Su told reporters at the annual meeting of the Chinese legislature’s advisory body today.
China is trying to reverse an economic slide that has cost the jobs of 20 million migrant workers after exports collapsed because of the global recession. The government may double a 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) package of stimulus spending through 2010, according to Standard Chartered Bank Plc.
“The effects of the fiscal stimulus will start to be seen in the second half,” said Wang Qing, Hong Kong-based chief China economist at Morgan Stanley. “The bulk of the money is yet to be dispersed or even approved.”
Wang expects growth to slow to between 3 percent and 4 percent in the first half, picking up in the second for full- year expansion of 5.5 percent. That would be the weakest annual growth since 1990.
Su said “both monetary and fiscal policies are very important” in managing the economy. Finance Minister Xie Xuren reiterated today that the nation had a “proactive” fiscal policy.
The central bank has said it will make “moderate” use of interest rates this year after five cuts in the final four months of last year took the key one-year lending rate to 5.31 percent.
Zhang Dingmin and Rong Feiwen
Bloomberg, March 3, 2009
China’s economy, the world’s third biggest, is “very likely” to recover in the first half of 2009, central bank Vice Governor Su Ning said in Beijing.
“We’re very confident,” Su told reporters at the annual meeting of the Chinese legislature’s advisory body today.
China is trying to reverse an economic slide that has cost the jobs of 20 million migrant workers after exports collapsed because of the global recession. The government may double a 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) package of stimulus spending through 2010, according to Standard Chartered Bank Plc.
“The effects of the fiscal stimulus will start to be seen in the second half,” said Wang Qing, Hong Kong-based chief China economist at Morgan Stanley. “The bulk of the money is yet to be dispersed or even approved.”
Wang expects growth to slow to between 3 percent and 4 percent in the first half, picking up in the second for full- year expansion of 5.5 percent. That would be the weakest annual growth since 1990.
Su said “both monetary and fiscal policies are very important” in managing the economy. Finance Minister Xie Xuren reiterated today that the nation had a “proactive” fiscal policy.
The central bank has said it will make “moderate” use of interest rates this year after five cuts in the final four months of last year took the key one-year lending rate to 5.31 percent.
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