Tuesday 5 May 2009


SIGNS OF RECOVERY IN CHINA'S WORKSHOPS RAISE FEARS FOR ASIAN INDUSTRY AND PRICES

Leo Lewis

The Times, May 5, 2009

Industry across Asia may be at risk from a sudden revival in Chinese manufacturing as the workshop of the world is lifted out of a nine-month slump with the help of a $600 billion (£400 billion) monetary and fiscal government stimulus.

Traders in Shanghai and Hong Kong have taken yesterday's manufacturing data as a clear sign of recovery for the world's third-biggest economy. New jobs have been created, output has returned to positive territory and factories across a broad range of sectors received new orders in April. This is in sharp contrast to the scene late last year, when tens of thousands of factories closed and 20 million migrant workers were laid off.

The revival in manufacturing was signalled by a striking bounce in the Asia-based brokerage CLSA's Purchasing Managers' Index for April — a closely watched monthly report viewed by many investors as a more reliable snapshot of the industrial status quo in China than the official figures produced by Beijing.

The survey of industry executives showed the index pushing narrowly back above the critical level of 50 for the first time since July last year. A number below that level — such as the dismal March figure of 44.8 — implies contraction in manufacturing; anything above it signals expansion. The recovery of the PMI to a level of 50.1 can be attributed to the country's vast stimulus package. according to CLSA's analsyis. Backed by record bank lending, the Government implemented measures designed to prevent the Chinese economy from tumbling too far below the politically sensitive GDP growth rate of 8 per cent.

“China's Government has been extremely successful in stimulating investment and, combined with a sharp improvement in export orders, this has pushed the PMI back into positive territory in April,” the report said, adding that the Government's spending should keep the PMI above 50 in coming months.

(…) [artículo aquí]

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