DOES ASIA'S REBOUND SIGNAL A RETURN TO STELLAR GROWTH?
Nouriel Roubini
Forbes, October 8, 2009
Asian economies rebounded in the second quarter of 2009 as aggressive monetary and fiscal stimuli cushioned domestic demand and quick inventory adjustment eased the downturn in industrial production. Capital inflows have buoyed the asset markets, and net exports have contributed to gross domestic product growth as imports have contracted faster than exports.
However, policy measures are inadequate to close the output gap emanating from sluggish private demand and sharp export contraction. All Asian economies will slow sharply in 2009 and grow below potential in 2010. My analysts and I forecast Asia will grow a mere 2.6% in 2009 and 5.4% in 2010. Asia ex-Japan (AXJ) will grow 4.9% in 2009 and 6.6% in 2010. As the impact of policy measures fade in 2010, the pace of Asia's recovery will hinge on the recovery of global export demand and continued risk appetite. I project that Japan will contract sharply in 2009 and grow below 1.0% in 2010. Fiscal stimulus will push China's growth to over 8.0% during 2009 and 2010. India will grow less than 6.0% in 2009 and below potential in 2010. The Asian Tigers (Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong), Thailand, Malaysia and New Zealand will contract in 2009 while the contraction in South Korea will be mild and Australia will barely grow. The Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam, Pakistan and Sri Lanka will slow sharply in 2009.
Unlike 1997 or 2001, Asia cannot employ an export-led strategy to drive the economic recovery. As consumers in the advanced economies de-leverage over the next few years and foreign direct investment (FDI) recovers slowly, attaining the pre-crisis GDP growth rates in Asian countries will largely depend on the governments' ability to rebalance growth towards domestic demand and accelerate structural reforms. Government and private consumption and investment should be moved away from the export sectors. Reforms should increase government spending on safety nets and public services, move workers to the service sector, improve financial sector intermediation and diversify exports towards emerging markets. Since these reforms will take a few years, Asia's growth in the short term will remain tied to the U.S. economy via trade and financial linkages.
Forbes, October 8, 2009
Asian economies rebounded in the second quarter of 2009 as aggressive monetary and fiscal stimuli cushioned domestic demand and quick inventory adjustment eased the downturn in industrial production. Capital inflows have buoyed the asset markets, and net exports have contributed to gross domestic product growth as imports have contracted faster than exports.
However, policy measures are inadequate to close the output gap emanating from sluggish private demand and sharp export contraction. All Asian economies will slow sharply in 2009 and grow below potential in 2010. My analysts and I forecast Asia will grow a mere 2.6% in 2009 and 5.4% in 2010. Asia ex-Japan (AXJ) will grow 4.9% in 2009 and 6.6% in 2010. As the impact of policy measures fade in 2010, the pace of Asia's recovery will hinge on the recovery of global export demand and continued risk appetite. I project that Japan will contract sharply in 2009 and grow below 1.0% in 2010. Fiscal stimulus will push China's growth to over 8.0% during 2009 and 2010. India will grow less than 6.0% in 2009 and below potential in 2010. The Asian Tigers (Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong), Thailand, Malaysia and New Zealand will contract in 2009 while the contraction in South Korea will be mild and Australia will barely grow. The Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam, Pakistan and Sri Lanka will slow sharply in 2009.
Unlike 1997 or 2001, Asia cannot employ an export-led strategy to drive the economic recovery. As consumers in the advanced economies de-leverage over the next few years and foreign direct investment (FDI) recovers slowly, attaining the pre-crisis GDP growth rates in Asian countries will largely depend on the governments' ability to rebalance growth towards domestic demand and accelerate structural reforms. Government and private consumption and investment should be moved away from the export sectors. Reforms should increase government spending on safety nets and public services, move workers to the service sector, improve financial sector intermediation and diversify exports towards emerging markets. Since these reforms will take a few years, Asia's growth in the short term will remain tied to the U.S. economy via trade and financial linkages.
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