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THE PEACE IMPERATIVE

Francesco Sisci

Asia Times, January 8, 2010

BEIJING - In 2005, Zheng Bijian, then executive vice-president of the Central Party School, a former political adviser to Communist Party secretary Hu Yaobang, and for years right-hand man to President Hu Jintao, published an essay in the US detailing China's doctrine about its peaceful rise. [1]

The article argued that China would not seek hegemonic status in the world and would not engage in expansionist wars. It explained how historic Imperial China, although very powerful at times, never went out of its own political basin.

Zheng’s argument was a response to Western allegations that China, as it grew strong and powerful, would also grow aggressive, just as 19th-century Germany did, thus leading Europe and the world into the Great War of the early 20th century. Coming as it did from a person with such an illustrious background, it was a public political pledge: China in the future would not become aggressive, and if it did, anybody could turn this article against Beijing, making it lose face and essential international political capital.

According to Chinese political logic, then, this pledge was very significant: it was and remains a commitment about future policies, by which China's internal and international credibility and accountability may be gauged.

However, Western skeptics know full well that political pledges can be warped and turned upside down if political necessities arise. The real question then is, they argue, will China feel it necessary to put aside the pledge about its peaceful rise and engage in an aggressive foreign policy? What would the conditions be for such aggressive behavior? Would a unilateral declaration of independence by Taiwan tip the balance? How then can we believe that China is serious about its peaceful rise?

(...) [artículo aquí]