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N. KOREA IN A STATE OF EMERGENCY AGAIN?

Park Sang-seek

The Korea Herald, March 28, 2010

Recently, the mass media has reported that a crisis situation in North Korea is looming again. The reports are based on unconfirmed information that North Korean leader Kim Jong-il may not live beyond 2013 and the United States, South Korea and China will soon meet to discuss the emergency situation which is likely to follow his death.

These reports are reminiscent of the aftermath of Kim Il-sung`s sudden death in 1994 and the subsequent development of U.S.-North Korea nuclear negotiations and the conclusion of the Geneva Framework Agreement. Some speculated at that time that the U.S. made significant concessions to North Korea, believing that the North Korean regime would soon collapse and then the North Korean nuclear weapons facilities would be dismantled and the light-water reactors to be provided for the North could be taken over by South Korea.

Some North Korea specialists warn that even if such a report is correct and the South Korean and U.S. government authorities jointly or separately have been preparing for such an emergence, the mass media and both government authorities should not talk about the issue openly. In order to understand the nature of the crisis situation, the term crisis situation (or state of emergency) needs to be clearly defined. Otherwise, we wont be able to tell whether the North is faced with a crisis or formulate the right strategy for the crisis.

The "crisis situation" can be defined broadly or narrowly. One scenario is that following the North Korean leader`s death or incapacitation, a single person (his son, Kim Jong-eun, or somebody else) or a collective leadership (composed of both the party and military elites) takes over power. These two leaderships will preserve the Kim Jong-il system, a totalitarian autocracy.

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