FROM BRICs TO BRICIs

WILL INDONESIA BE THE WORLD’S FIFTH LARGEST ECONOMY?

Aris Ananta

The Jakarta Post, October 25, 2010

Since surviving from the recent global crisis, with economic growth rate at 4.5 percent in 2009, while many other countries suffered economic contraction, some economic observers have started projecting the emerging economic power of Indonesia. They began adding “I” (for Indonesia) to the emerging BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) countries, to make BRICI or IBRIC.

Recently, businessman Chairul Tanjung, who is also the chairman of National Economic Committee, an ad hoc forum for the President of Indonesia, made another grouping.

He said that in 2030, Indonesia, with a 285 million population, will become the fifth largest economy in the world, after China, the US, EU and India. He said that the gross domestic product of Indonesia will jump from the current US$700 billion to $5,100 billion in 2030.

In other words, Tanjung predicted that Indonesia’s economy would grow at an average of about 10.0 percent every year from next year until 2030. Per capita income in 2030 will be $17,895, assuming $1 is equal to 9,000 rupiah. Nevertheless, with an exception in 1987, Indonesia never achieved an annual economic growth rate of more than 9.0 percent.

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