CHINESE IN INDIA

THE CHINESE ARE COMING

Kanti Bajpai

The Times of India, December 11, 2010

Premier Wen Jiabao of China will come calling next week. China is India's largest and most powerful neighbour by far and therefore in a strategic sense the most consequential. It is also India's biggest trading partner, which makes it vital to the Indian economy. How should we at this juncture think about the relationship with China?

By way of context, it is crucial to remember that China is the second largest economy in the world and probably the second greatest military power as well. By any reckoning, it will be the greatest power on earth in 30 years if not sooner. It is hard to see what could stop its rise. There is a view that China's internal political and ethno-religious problems, its ageing population, and its peculiar state-led crypto-capitalist economy will singly or in combination constrain its elevation to the world's pre-eminent power. However, we should remember that before China both the US and UK had internal problems prior to their rise. Those problems did not fundamentally stop their ascent.

When Wen arrives in Delhi, he will set foot in the Indian capital as the leader of the next superpower if not the next global hegemon. Projections of China's GDP as a proportion of world GDP, in 30 years from now, range from roughly 25 per cent to 40 per cent. Whatever we may say about Indian economic growth, it is highly unlikely our country will be in the same position. However much it may gall us, we must acknowledge that the next century will be China's.

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