ASIA 2050

IS THIS THE ASIAN CENTURY?

Ashfaqur Rahman

The Daily Star, June 5, 2011

Last month, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) released a report in its annual meeting held in Vietnam entitled "Asia 2050 -- realising the Asian century." In a breath-taking sweep of economic trends and visions it describes two possible scenarios -- first an "Asian century," which is expected, and the other a "Middle income trap."

ADB prognosticates that Asia's rise this century would be led by seven countries. They are India, China, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia and Thailand. In 2010, these seven economies had a total population of 3.1 billion (78% of Asia) and a GDP of $14.2 trillion. But by 2050, these seven economies alone will account for 45% of the global GDP.

Thus, under the Asian century scenario, Asia's GDP would rise to $148 trillion and account for 51% of the global output compared to the present 27% only. On the basis of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), GDP per capita in Asia would also rise to $45,800, compared to the global average of $36,600.

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