CHINA’S ECONOMIC FORECAST

HARD LANDING UNLIKELY FOR CHINA'S ECONOMY

Ye Xiaonan

People's Daily, September 30, 2011

Given the many uncertainties in China's economic development due to the uneven growth of the world economy, fragile recoveries in the United States and the European Union and the inflationary pressure faced by emerging economies, what kind of macroeconomic situation will China face? What direction will it take?

Lu Zhongyuan, vice director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said at a news briefing hosted by the State Council Information Office on Sept. 28 that China's economic growth rate climbed beyond 9 percent in the first three quarters of 2011 and was within a reasonable range determined by the country's growth potential. China's economic growth rate in 2011 is expected to remain at higher than 9 percent. This will play a role in promoting the recovery of the world economy and avoiding a double-dip recession.

Signs of a slowdown in economic growth appear 
China's economic growth rate has gradually dropped to the range of 9.5 to 9.8 percent since the second half of 2010, with an economic growth rate of 9.7 percent in the first half of 2011 and 9.5 percent in the second quarter. Some leading indicators have shown the signs of slowdown in economic growth.

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