CHINA’S FUTURE POLICY DIRECTIONS

CHINA OUTLOOK

Munir Akram

The Dawn, March 18, 2012

IN recent weeks, there has been considerable prognostication in the western media, think tanks and policy circles about the direction China will take over the next decade, as President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao are replaced by Vice President Xi Jinping and Vice Premier Li Keqiang, and most other members of the nine-member State Council by the ‘fifth generation of leaders’.

As usual, western attention has been directed to China’s internal leadership differences and social and economic problems arising from the rapid economic growth, human rights and democracy activists, China’s military modernisation, its disputes with some neighbouring countries, imputations of unfair trade and exploitative foreign investment.

A week spent in Beijing, coincidentally concurrent with the annual sessions of the National People’s Congress and the CPCC, and informal interactions with serving and former Chinese officials and diplomats, yielded different and more complex conclusions on China’s future policy directions.

The first conclusion is that the main preoccupation of the Chinese authorities is to ensure China’s continued stable growth and development. To achieve this, there will be greater emphasis on more equitable distribution of the benefits of economic expansion rather than only the GDP rise.

The official annual growth rate is projected at the historically slower pace of 7.5 per cent although real growth may continue to be somewhat higher in the immediate future. Reliance on exports and infrastructure investment will be accompanied by a greater focus on mass domestic consumption, specially social services, health and recreation facilities.

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