SHARIF AND PAKISTAN-INDIA

COMPETING PRESSURES AND THREATS: A LONG ROAD AHEAD FOR NAWAZ SHARIF

Vivek Katju

The Economic Times, May 15, 2013

In February 1999, the Pakistani defence services chiefs, including Pervez Musharraf, called on then Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee in Government House, Lahore. As the call concluded, a Pakistani minister emphatically told this writer that the government would not allow the army to disrupt the historic process initiated by the visit. Three months later, the guns boomed in Kargil.

Nawaz Sharif is reaching out to India in a gushing, warm Lahori embrace. But Delhi must not lose sight of the enduring realities of the Pakistani state. Howsoever much Sharif may wish that the Constitution be respected by all Pakistani institutions, the army will not give up its decisive role in the formulation of the country's security policies, nor its traditional reflexes towards India.

Undoubtedly, the elections were credible despite the violence. They are an important milestone in the political evolution of Pakistan. Two points stand out vis-a-vis the elections to the National Assembly.

First, they have diminished the spread of the PML(N) and the PPP. Sharif effectively represents only the Punjab - 118 of his 126 seats come from that province. The PPP with 31 seats is now effectively a Sindhi party, with only one seat in Punjab. And despite the fervour of the metropolitan youth, some subtle support from the intelligence agencies and media attention, the bulk of Imran Khan's 29 seats come from pockets of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, FATA and northern Punjab.

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