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INDIA AS A US HEDGE AGAINST CHINA

Jeff M Smith

Asia Times, August 7, 2008

With a housing crisis in full bloom, and a presidential campaign in overdrive, Americans can be forgiven for overlooking the frenetic race to salvage the US-India civil nuclear agreement now underway.

First came Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's narrow triumph in a no-confidence vote in parliament last month. Manmohan stood down fierce opposition from the left and, in a chaotic and unruly session, risked his governing coalition by forcing the vote.

Only weeks later, on August 1, the International Atomic Energy Agency signaled its approval of India's draft plan for inspection, clearing the second of four hurdles. Only the 45-member Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), where approval is likely, and the US Congress, where nothing is guaranteed, now stand in the way.

In Washington, supporters can trumpet the backing of political heavyweights - the George W Bush administration, Republican Senator John McCain, and, at least tentatively, Democratic Senator Barack Obama - but remain stifled by non-proliferation hawks and a frantic legislative calendar. (An arcane caveat to the nuclear deal requires that to call a vote, Congress be in consecutive session for 30 days after the NSG's approval. Short of an unexpected extension, this may not be possible.)

Yet the deal's advocates press on, mustering visions of a vast economic windfall and lucrative arms deal to follow, while behind closed doors emphasizing one selling point that appeals to both sides of the aisle: America must recruit the Indian tiger to hedge against the rising Chinese dragon.

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