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WIDESPREAD FALLOUT FROM INDIA-US PACT

Brad Glosserman and Bates Gill

Asia Times, October 28, 2008

The United States-India civilian nuclear agreement was signed into law this month after two years of negotiations and bitter debate, yet the deal's final terms have sharply divided arms control and non-proliferation specialists. The focus of this often-emotional debate revolves around a simple question: is the deal a meaningful compromise that protects India's national security interests and the integrity of the nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT), or does it give Delhi too much power and undermine the NPT? The debate continues with no consensus in sight.

Unfortunately the deal's potentially far greater consequences are garnering far less attention. In particular, little has been said about how this deal is seen in other countries, the precedent it appears to set, and the impact it has on US leadership generally, especially on nonproliferation issues. These are equally critical concerns and, while we are still in early days, they may come back to haunt this agreement.

Make no mistake: Washington's decision to agree to terms with Delhi offers hope to other governments considering nuclear weapons that they too may receive special status. India's insistence that it is a unique case - as it never signed the NPT and it developed its own nuclear technology - is unlikely to make an impression on would-be proliferators which have seen India gain official recognition despite its rejection of the NPT. Even if this is only hope masquerading as reason, it is still likely to encourage proliferation.

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