CHINA’S GROWTH MAY SLIP IN 2010 ON STIMULUS CAP, DEUTSCHE SAYS
Bloomberg News
Bloomberg, June 29, 2009
China’s economic growth may slip next year as the government refrains from adding to stimulus spending amid political opposition to a rising fiscal deficit, said Deutsche Bank AG.
“A lot of people believe the government can do whatever it takes to stimulate the economy,” Ma Jun, Deutsche’s Hong Kong- based China economist, said in a June 26 interview. “Those expecting big stimulus next year, and therefore stronger growth, will be disappointed.”
The Shanghai Composite Index has climbed 61 percent this year, the third-best performer of 90 benchmarks tracked by Bloomberg, as the government’s stimulus plan takes effect. Economic growth will cool to 7.2 percent next year from 7.5 percent in 2009 as increasing overcapacity in manufacturing discourages private investment, Ma estimates.
Government-influenced spending will account for four-fifths of China’s growth this year, according to the World Bank. Premier Wen Jiabao’s 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus package, announced last year and running through 2010, is countering a collapse in exports.
Ma’s view contrasts with predictions from the World Bank, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and JPMorgan Chase & Co. for growth to accelerate in 2010 from 2009. Gross domestic product will increase 8 percent this year and more than 9 percent in 2011, Cheng Siwei, former vice chairman of the standing committee of the National People’s Congress, said June 27.
Bloomberg News
Bloomberg, June 29, 2009
China’s economic growth may slip next year as the government refrains from adding to stimulus spending amid political opposition to a rising fiscal deficit, said Deutsche Bank AG.
“A lot of people believe the government can do whatever it takes to stimulate the economy,” Ma Jun, Deutsche’s Hong Kong- based China economist, said in a June 26 interview. “Those expecting big stimulus next year, and therefore stronger growth, will be disappointed.”
The Shanghai Composite Index has climbed 61 percent this year, the third-best performer of 90 benchmarks tracked by Bloomberg, as the government’s stimulus plan takes effect. Economic growth will cool to 7.2 percent next year from 7.5 percent in 2009 as increasing overcapacity in manufacturing discourages private investment, Ma estimates.
Government-influenced spending will account for four-fifths of China’s growth this year, according to the World Bank. Premier Wen Jiabao’s 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus package, announced last year and running through 2010, is countering a collapse in exports.
Ma’s view contrasts with predictions from the World Bank, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and JPMorgan Chase & Co. for growth to accelerate in 2010 from 2009. Gross domestic product will increase 8 percent this year and more than 9 percent in 2011, Cheng Siwei, former vice chairman of the standing committee of the National People’s Congress, said June 27.
(...) [artículo aquí]
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment