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TAIWAN, CHINA TREAD CAREFULLY

Cindy Sui

Asia Times, September 30, 2009

TAIPEI - Sixty years after Taiwan split from China at the end of a civil war in 1949, there are still no clear signs of how the two sides will resolve their dispute over the island's status, but as mainland China celebrates its victory in the war on October 1, the indications are stronger than ever that both sides are aiming for a peaceful solution, analysts say.

Beijing claims Taiwan is a renegade province, and has not renounced the use of force to take it back for reunification, despite recent warming ties. Over past decades, Taiwan has developed into a vibrant democracy whose people cherish their freedom and separate identity from China.

Nonetheless, the dramatic improvement in relations between the two sides in the past year makes a war unlikely, but so seems unification or Taiwan independence.

China has proposed reunification under the so-called "One Country, Two Systems" formula that offers Hong Kong and Macau, former colonies of Britain and Portugal respectively, a high degree of autonomy, including a free press, with top leaders having to be endorsed by Beijing. But Taiwan has rejected this idea, having grown used to ruling itself democratically.

For now, Beijing and Taipei are shelving this issue, focusing instead on what they can agree on - strengthening economic ties, which are seen as mutually beneficial.

Analysts said that over time the sovereignty issue could perhaps work itself out without a military conflict, as long as neither side pushes the other's limits.

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