Monday 21 September 2009


TIME TO STOP BEING CHICKEN AND TALK ABOUT CHINA
The most important subject for the world economy won’t even be on the agenda in this packed season of summitry

Bill Emmott

The Times, September 21, 2009

An economic crisis that began as a drama, or even a tragedy, is descending into farce. It is bad enough at home, what with Labour and the Tories arguing over whose spending cuts will be the nastiest, when the real issue is what it will mean for Britain to have a budget deficit that might reach 15 per cent of GDP next year. Abroad, however, things are taking an even more absurd turn, with the world’s two supposedly most important countries, America and China, descending into a trade row about Chinese car tyres and American chickens.

Moreover, we are entering a packed season of international summitry, with the G20 countries meeting in Pittsburgh this week to put the world to rights in a trendily broad and inclusive way, just ahead of the annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund in Istanbul. But what are they planning to do? They will talk mainly about bankers’ bonuses. They will do so in a format seemingly designed to prevent proper thought or decision-making, or at least long speeches from Nicolas Sarkozy and Gordon Brown: the world’s mightiest heads of government will meet for just a dinner and a morning, giving them about five minutes each to get their points across.

Amid this comedy, the most important topic in international economic policy will not be discussed at all, either in private or in public. The silence on this vital issue is partly because it is complex. Mainly, however, our global leaders will be silent for an unfunny but alarming reason: to avoid offending one among their number, China.

At this point in articles about the importance of unspoken issues, it is traditional to cite a literary analogy: typically, Sherlock Holmes and his dog that didn’t bark; or Lady Bracknell’s exhortation to her niece to “omit the chapter on the rupee — it is somewhat sensational”. Readers should feel free to insert their own preference, but the rupee might be the more apt. For the subject about which our leaders will be silent is the Chinese currency, the renminbi, also known as the yuan.

(...) [artículo aquí]

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