CHINA AS No. 1?

CAN CHINA OVERTAKE U.S. AS WORLD'S NO. 1 ECONOMY?

The Chosun Ilbo, August 26, 2010

After the news that China has pulled ahead of Japan to become the world's second largest economy, experts are now speculating on when it might dethrone the U.S. to take the No. 1 spot. Nomura Securities forecasts China could achieve the feat in less than a decade. Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Fogel of the University of Chicago predicts that China will account for 40 percent of the world's GDP by 2050, and the U.S. a meager 14 percent.

But other experts say fears of Chinese hegemony are exaggerated as the country's rapid economic growth will soon hit its limits. Forbes magazine issued a report on Tuesday that looks at "five reasons why the U.S. can stay ahead of the Middle Kingdom."

First on the list is water. "If water is the 'new oil,' China faces a thirsty future," Forbes wrote. According to Steve Solomon, author of "Water: The Epic Struggle for Wealth, Power and Civilization," China has about one-fifth per capita the amount of freshwater reserves as the U.S., and much of its supply is polluted. While water usage in the U.S. has become more efficient, China faces growing demands from businesses, farms and its burgeoning population.

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