Wednesday 8 February 2012

A SLOW SLOWDOWN IN CHINA?

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NOTHING TO FEAR IN A CHINESE WOBBLE

James Laurenceson

Business Spectator, February 8, 2012

These days, most economic commentators in Australia sing from the same hymn sheet when it comes to discussing our economic prospects: while the ongoing gloom in the US and the outright deterioration in conditions in Europe are obviously less than ideal, what really matters is what is happening in China.

Throughout most of 2011, the news on this front remained bright. At year-end, merchandise exports to China totalled $72 billion, up 23.5 per cent on the previous year. Our terms of trade, widely seen to be driven by developments in China, also continued to crack record highs.

The start of 2012 however has seen anxiety levels amongst economic commentators rise markedly. The latest official figures show that in the fourth quarter of 2011, China’s GDP grew at a seasonally-adjusted, annualised rate of 8.2 per cent. This was down from 9.5 per cent in the previous quarter and has been taken by some as signalling the start of a much sharper fall in growth.

The reasons for the predicted downturn are several but mainly revolve around fears that China is in danger of becoming the latest victim of a housing price bubble at the same time that its exports are being hammered by weak demand from overseas.

(...) [artículo aquí]

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