CHINA IN 2030

WILL CHINA LEAD THE WORLD IN 2030?

Nobody can see into the future, but certain experts are daring to predict the state of the world in 2030. They see China ahead of other countries.

Zhang Danhong

Deutsche Welle, June 16, 2012

Although it is almost impossible to predict how some of the developments underway in the world right now will end up, many economists are doing their best to make forecasts, which are as precise as possible.

The retired German economist Bert Rürup and Dirk Heilmann, the chief economist of Germany's leading business newspaper Handelsblatt, describe the world economy 2030 in their book "Fette Jahre - Warum Deutschland eine glänzende Zukunft hat."

This translates roughly as "great years - why Germany has a bright future". But the writers have not only looked at Germany in the book; they describe a future in which the US will still have the largest GDP, at $21.2 trillion, and will be followed closely by China, with a GDP of $19.4 trillion. The third and fourth places, they say, will also be occupied by Asian countries - with Japan ahead of India. Germany, which at the moment is the fourth largest economy in the world, will slip down to sixth - right behind Brazil.

"If one were to form a new G7, all of the BRIC countries would be part of it but only three of the old members," they write. Germany would be the only European country in the club of the largest economies.

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