CHINA’S POLITICAL FUTURE

MUCH IS AT STAKE IN CHINA’S EPIC POWER STRUGGLE

Brahma Chellaney

The Times of India, June 10, 2012

As it awaits a major turnover in its senior civilian leadership, China appears at the crossroads. Its future is likely to be determined not by its hugely successful economy, which has turned the country into a world power in just one generation, but by its murky politics. A reminder of that is the vicious political struggle that has broken out in the run-up to the leadership changes, as well as official figures showing that rural protests have been increasing at the same rate as China's GDP.

Bo Xilai's downfall is just one example of the noholds-barred power struggle. The Communist Party's sudden vilification of Bo after lauding him for his Chongqing model has only promoted public cynicism over his orchestrated downfall and laid bare the leadership elite's thin ideological marrow.

If China is to preserve its rising strength, it must avoid a political hard landing. Although it is difficult to predict China's political future, at least five different scenarios are conceivable.

Scenario 1: The party protects its legitimacy, keeps the military subordinate to the party, and manages to put a lid on popular dissent. In other words, the status quo prevails. This is the least likely of the five scenarios because of the political flux and rising popular discontent.

Scenario 2: China implodes. This scenario is the opposite of the first scenario, yet its likelihood may be no better.

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