Friday 10 August 2012

CHINA: AN OPTIMISTIC VIEW

China Daily 3

THE MIRACLE THAT CANNOT BE UNDONE

It would take a series of cataclysms to knock china off its economic course
Bill McDermott
China Daily, August 10, 2012

When Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao met US business leaders last month, he called for confidence in his country's economy and a joint effort to cope with the global economic crisis.

According to government data, the Chinese economy is slowing down, with a GDP growth rate of 7.6 percent in the second quarter, down from 9.5 percent a year ago. This month the International Monetary Fund lowered its 2012 growth projection for China from 8.2 to 8 percent.

Still, I support Wen's cautiously optimistic appeal. Even though the economy is growing at a slower pace, predictions of a dramatic downturn in China are nonsense. There are big possibilities in the growing middle class, increasing urbanization and development, and active government investment.

As China becomes more global, more moderate growth in its economy may even be a perfect incentive to switch to a more green, modern, and efficient economy.

First off, it is worth pointing out that at $7.3 trillion the Chinese economy is already huge by all economic standards. The gravity and momentum of such an economy is considerable. It would take episodes of earthshaking proportions to dramatically restrict business activity on this scale once it is under way.

For instance, consider the impact of the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan last year. Japan was the world's third-largest economy before the earthquake struck, and still is today. Despite the enormous human tragedy of the disaster and the huge national and international effort to rebuild the nation, experts have estimated that the calamity may have knocked only half of 1 percent off the country's 2011 GDP.

(...) [artículo aquí]

No comments: