INDIA’S GDP FORECAST

GDP GROWTH FORECAST LOOKS ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE: EXPERTS

PM panel cuts 2012-13 GDP forecast: experts

Reuters

Business Standard, August 17, 2012

India's economy will grow at 6.7 percent in the current fiscal year, less than an earlier estimate of 7.5-8 percent, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's Economic Advisory Council forecast on Friday.

Following are some of the experts commenting on the data:-

Rajeev Malik, Senior economist, CLSA, Singapore

"The assessment of the current account deficit is realistic but higher than what many have been gushing with. However, the GDP growth forecast seems to be on the optimistic side. Apart from the Economic Advisory Council's more optimistic assessment, one underlying factor could also be the scope of data revisions that may show that the January-March was better than what has been reported.

"There has been some quickness in the economic data and one wonders about the impact of data revisions. The timing of such revisions is painfully uncertain. The outlook for the service sector in FY13 appears rather optimistic. On the fiscal deficit, the EAC seems to be running with the official forecast, which has become fiction.

"The suggestions about/wish list of increasing fuel prices and raising FDI limits are well meaning and sound. But we all know the problems and the solutions. But the political will to implement the solutions has been lacking. Technocrats cannot do anything about that."

(...) [artículo aquí]