HU AND THE MILITARY

HU MAY KEEP XI WAITING TO TAKE CONTROL OF CHINA’S MILITARY

Bloomberg News

Bloomberg, November 12, 2012

Xi Jinping may have to wait two years to gain control of the world’s largest army after he takes the Communist Party’s top job this week, a delay that may weaken China’s ability to address tensions with Japan and the U.S.

In China’s past two transitions of power, the departing leader kept hold of the military for about two years. That pattern would keep President Hu Jintao atop the party’s Central Military Commission, which has direct oversight of the armed forces, even after he steps down as party general secretary.

Hu could complicate Xi’s efforts to consolidate power and create new room for political jockeying after China’s leadership transition was roiled by the downfall of former Politburo member Bo Xilai. A confused chain of command may muddle China’s handling of territorial disputes with Japan, at a time when the U.S. is concerned that Chinese leaders are using nationalism to paper over domestic tensions.

“When the party leadership is united, it’s obvious the party controls the gun,” Huang Jing, a political science professor at the National University of Singapore who expects Hu will stay on as military chief, said in a phone interview. “But when the party is divided or weak, whoever has the gun has the last say.”

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