CHINA IN 2013

THE CHINESE ECONOMY IN 2013

SinoShipNews, December 28, 2012

Dalian: This year has been a tough one for the Chinese economy, and yet it has come through it in a manner to make most in the West envious. Next year, the consensus is that the Chinese economy, unarguably the most important nation affecting world shipping, will perform in the 7.5 to 8.5% growth area. Nevertheless, the new leadership will have much to do.

Citi Bank reckons both GDP and manufacturing will be firm next year. The US bank’s concerns are on the brittle nature of real estate and the local banks, which is likely to see less loans being issued. Citi reckons the appreciation of the RMB will lessen in 2013.

The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) believes the adjustment in real estate market will lead to investment declining. CASS sees GDP growth next year of 8.2% in the world’s most populous nation.

The Asian Development Bank, meanwhile, thinks the growth of the Chinese economy in 2013 will be lower than earlier expected, but the financial stimulus packages of central and local governments will help the nation to a stable year.

HSBC Bank chief economist Stephen King sees China's GDP growing 8.6% in 2013.

"Even if the Chinese economy is slowing, its impact on the global economy is paradoxically rising," he noted, something that is also true of world shipping.

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