Sunday 16 December 2012

WHAT RESPONSE TO NORTH KOREA?

The China Post

N. KOREA'S LATEST MISSILE-LAUNCH AND THE ELUSIVE SEARCH FOR A RESPONSE WITH TEETH

Arthur I. Cyr

The China Post, December 16, 2012

The successful launch on Dec. 12 of a space satellite by North Korea is cause for concern, but no sign of a basic strategic shift — yet. Nonetheless, a tough response with teeth is required by the world community.

For almost two decades, Pyongyang has oscillated between apparent accommodation and bombastic hard-line. In late February, North Korea's official news agency and the U.S. State Department jointly announced that Pyongyang would cease uranium enrichment and nuclear weapons tests, and permit inspection of nuclear facilities. In return, the U.S. would resume shipments of substantial amounts of humanitarian food relief.

This was followed in April by a test of a long-range missile. That missile launch led to immediate cessation of U.S. aid. Even in closed North Korea, news leaked out to the undernourished population that anticipated provisions had been stopped. The past several years have seen some unrest amid the apparently total discipline imposed from the top. Space shot publicity will not change this.

A report last September by the Rand Corp., a defense policy think tank, argues North Korea's long-term but erratic efforts to develop long-range missiles do not represent a major threat to the global balance of power. Markus Schiller, author of the study, emphasizes that obsolete Russian engines were used, with both range and payload too small to support a credible intercontinental ballistic missile.

(...) [article here]

No comments: